Ole Miss (5-7 SU/4-8 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 78.33 (#33)
Returning Starters: 11 (5 offense, 6 defense)
Key Losses: QB Chad Kelly, RB Akeem Judd, WR Damore’ea Stringfellow, TE Evan Engram, DT D.J. Jones, DB Tony Conner
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #33
2016 Season Recap: After improving their record in each of his first four seasons, Hugh Freeze had his work cut out for him last year. The Rebels returned only 10 starters and lost a school-record three first round NFL draft choices. In the opener, Ole Miss would blow a 28-6 lead against Florida State. Two weeks later, the Rebels gave Alabama all they could handle for a 3rd straight year, but this time Ole Miss came up just short in the end (Rebels did blow a 24-3 lead). After back-to-back impressive blowout wins and covers over Georgia and Memphis, the season started to take a major turn for the worse with an upset loss at Arkansas. The Rebels would go on to lose to LSU and Auburn by double-digits. After a closer than expected win over Georgia Southern, QB Chad Kelly was out for the year and Ole Miss turned to true freshman Shea Patterson. After guiding an upset win at Texas A&M, Patterson and the Rebels would shockingly get blown out in their last two games vs Vanderbilt and Mississippi State (were 9.5-point favorites in each game). Overall, the Rebels would easily go UNDER their season win total of 8.5 (South Point).
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 32.6 42
Rushing 149.4 95
Passing 314.9 13
Total 464.3 26
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 34.0 100
Rushing 246.3 120
Passing 214.9 48
Total 461.2 111
Ole Miss (SU: 5-7, ATS: 4-8, O/U: 7-5)
|
9/5
|
† Florida St
|
L
|
+5.5
|
34-45
|
o59
|
9/10
|
Wofford
|
L
|
-44
|
38-13
|
u56.5
|
9/17
|
Alabama
|
W
|
+10.5
|
43-48
|
o54.5
|
9/24
|
Georgia
|
W
|
-7
|
45-14
|
u61.5
|
10/1
|
Memphis
|
W
|
-15.5
|
48-28
|
o70.5
|
10/15
|
at Arkansas
|
L
|
-7.5
|
30-34
|
u66.5
|
10/22
|
at LSU
|
L
|
+7.5
|
21-38
|
u60.5
|
10/29
|
Auburn
|
L
|
+4.5
|
29-40
|
o65
|
11/5
|
Ga Southern
|
L
|
-27.5
|
37-27
|
o63.5
|
11/12
|
at Texas A&M
|
W
|
+7.5
|
29-28
|
u60.5
|
11/19
|
at Vanderbilt
|
L
|
-9.5
|
17-38
|
o50.5
|
11/26
|
Mississippi St
|
L
|
-9.5
|
20-55
|
o68
|
2017 Outlook: The Rebels do have a new offensive coordinator in Phil Longo (from Sam Houston State). While 2-year starter Chad Kelly departs at QB, Shea Patterson got three starts at the end of last season and was one of the top QB’s coming out of high school. At RB, the Rebels lose leading rusher Akeed Judd but look for Jordan Wilkins to fill in after being hurt a year ago (2 starts in 2015).
Ole Miss does lose 3 of their top 4 receivers from last year including TE Evan Engram who was taken in the first round of the NFL draft. However, the triumvirate of A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf and Van Jefferson should still be among the best in the nation (very impressive spring game performances by all 3). Finally the offensive line returns 4 starters led by LT Greg Little.
The defense will look to show improvement under new defensive coordinator Wesley “Crime Dog” McGriff. Last year the Rebels were gashed in the run game allowing 246.3 rushing yards per game (No. 120). They do have a nice starting rotation on the defensive line led by Maquis Haynes who already has 24.5 career sacks (3rd most in school history). Depth is an issue on almost every level, but they do return their top 3 tacklers from last year including LB DeMarquis Gates (79 tackles) and Zedrick Jones was their standout in the secondary (63 tackles, 3 interceptions).
On special teams, both specialists return including kicker Gary Wunderlich who was 22 of 23 on FG’s a year ago (most accurate kicker in country). Will Gleeson is back at punter after averaging 44.1 yards per punt.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #20 Shea Patterson 6-2 203 So
RB #22 Jordan Wilkins 6-1 210 Sr
WR #1 A.J. Brown 6-1 225 So
WR #14 D.K. Metcalf 6-4 224 So
WR #12 Van Jefferson 6-2 192 So
TE #85 Dawson Knox 6-4 243 So
LT #74 Greg Little 6-6 332 So
LG #79 Javon Patterson 6-3 318 Jr
C #50 Sean Rawlings 6-5 294 Jr
RG #70 Jordan Sims 6-4 328 Jr
RT #73 Rod Taylor 6-3 321 Sr
Defense:
DE #38 Marquis Haynes 6-3 225 Sr
DT #95 Benito Jones 6-2 311 So
NT #9 Breeland Speaks 6-3 290 Jr
DE #97 Qaadir Sheppard 6-3 261 So
OLB #3 DeMarquis Gates 6-2 219 Sr
MLB #43 Detric Bing-Dukes 6-1 242 Jr
STAR #30 AJ Moore 5-11 200 Sr
CB #31 Jaylon Jones 5-11 181 So
SS #4 C.J. Hampton 6-0 190 Sr
FS #36 Zedrick Woods 5-11 195 Jr
CB #15 Myles Hartsfield 5-11 195 So
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star WR D.D. Bowie 6-1 170
4-star DE Chester Graves 6-4 220
4-star DB Breon Dixon 5-11 200
3-star ILB Mohamed Sanogo 6-2 239
3-star OT Tony Gray 6-5 290
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
South Alabama
|
-28
|
9/9
|
UT-Martin
|
-34
|
9/16
|
at California
|
-3
|
9/23
|
Bye
|
|
9/30
|
at Alabama
|
+24
|
10/7
|
at Auburn
|
+15
|
10/14
|
Vanderbilt
|
-10
|
10/21
|
LSU
|
+8
|
10/28
|
Arkansas
|
-5
|
11/4
|
at Kentucky
|
+2
|
11/11
|
UL-Lafayette
|
-26
|
11/18
|
Texas A&M
|
-1
|
11/23
|
at Mississippi St
|
+4
|
Schedule Analysis: Outside of back-to-back road trips to Alabama and Auburn, the 2017 schedule is quite manageable for the Rebels. They’ll be significant favorites in three of their four non-conference games and should also be favored in their unique road trip to California. They avoid the top 3 teams in the East (Florida, Georgia and Tennessee) and get similarly talented teams in Arkansas and Texas A&M both at home in SEC West action. They do have to play at in-state rival Mississippi State in the finale on short rest. Overall, I have the Rebels favored in 7 of their games, although three of them are by 5-points or less. I’d project their season win total around 6.5 to 7. Obviously, the Rebels are ineligible to play in the post-season this year including the conference championship and it will be interesting to see how motivated they are. It should also be noted that in the recent past we’ve seen teams like USC, Ohio State, Miami (FL) and North Carolina fare pretty well in seasons where there was a post-season ban.