Kentucky (7-6 SU/7-6 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 76.66 (#42)
Returning Starters: 17 (8 offense, 9 defense)
Key Losses: RB Stanley Williams, WR Jeff Badet, C John Toth
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #31
2016 Season Recap: Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops came into the 2016 season on the hot seat after suffering three straight losing seasons. It didn’t look good early for Stoops and Co as the Wildcats were upset in the first game vs Southern Miss and then were blown out at Florida 45-7. The season would then turn around in Week 4 with a win over South Carolina. That started a 5-game stretch where Kentucky went 5-0 ATS including 4 outright wins. The Wildcats had faltered down the stretch in both 2014 and 2015 that cost the Wildcats a bowl berth. Last year was a different story as the Wildcats blew out Charlotte to get to bowl eligibility (first time since 2010). Then they pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the entire season by beating in-state rival Louisville 41-38 as 4-TD underdogs. The bowl game was a disappointment as Kentucky fell to Georgia Tech 33-18. They did top their season win total of 5 (South Point) and did manage 3 outright upsets.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 30.0 58
Rushing 234.2 20
Passing 186.1 102
Total 420.2 61
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 31.3 86
Rushing 228.3 110
Passing 206.1 35
Total 434.2 85
Kentucky (SU: 7-6, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 7-6)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
Southern Miss
|
L
|
-4.5
|
35-44
|
o63
|
9/10
|
at Florida
|
L
|
+14.5
|
7-45
|
o49.5
|
9/17
|
New Mex St
|
L
|
-21.5
|
62-42
|
o66
|
9/24
|
S Carolina
|
W
|
-2.5
|
17-10
|
u59
|
10/1
|
at Alabama
|
W
|
+36
|
6-34
|
u57
|
10/8
|
Vanderbilt
|
W
|
-3.5
|
20-13
|
u49
|
10/22
|
Mississippi St
|
W
|
+4
|
40-38
|
o53.5
|
10/29
|
at Missouri
|
W
|
+6.5
|
35-21
|
u70
|
11/5
|
Georgia
|
L
|
+2.5
|
24-27
|
u51.5
|
11/12
|
at Tennessee
|
W
|
+14
|
36-49
|
o60
|
11/19
|
Austin Peay
|
L
|
-46
|
49-13
|
o60.5
|
11/26
|
at Louisville
|
W
|
+28
|
41-38
|
o70.5
|
12/31
|
† Georgia Tech
|
L
|
+3.5
|
18-33
|
u62
|
2017 Outlook: The Wildcats are very experienced as they return 17 starters including 8 on offense. Stephen Johnson is back at QB after starting 9 games (2,037 passing yards, 54.7%, 13-6 ratio) while Drew Barker should be back by fall camp. Barker was the starter prior to getting injured in Week 3 a year ago. They do lose their leading rusher in Stanley Williams (1,170 yards, 6.8 ypc) but Benny Snell ran for a Kentucky freshman record 1,091 yards and 13 TD’s. Also keep an eye out on Sihiem King who had a big spring game. The receiving corps does lose its leader in Jeff Badet (670 yards, 21.6 ypc) who decided to transfer to Oklahoma for his senior year. The offensive line also loses its leader in C John Toth (4-year starter) but returns 4 players with starting experience (68 career starts).
The defense has nowhere to go but up after allowing 228 rushing ypg a year ago (#110). The unit is led by LB Jordan Jones who is the SEC’s returning tackles leader (109 last year). Jones also racked up 15.5 tackles for loss. The Wildcats also return S Mike Edwards who had 100 tackles last year and outside pass rusher Denzil Ware who had 70 tackles, 5.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss. Josh Allen is another playmaker (7 sacks).
The special teams unit is led by kicker Austin MacGinnis who was 16 of 19 including 5-6 from 40-plus yards while punter Grant McKinniss also returns.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #15 Stephen Johnson 6-2 185 Sr
RB #26 Benny Snell 5-11 223 So
WR #2 Dorian Baker 6-3 211 Sr
WR #9 Garrett Johnson 5-11 175 Sr
WR #6 Blake Bone 6-5 213 Sr
TE #87 C.J. Conrad 6-5 245 Jr
C #65 Bunchy Stallings 6-3 315 Jr
RG #68 Nick Haynes 6-3 300 Sr
LG #71 Logan Stenberg 6-6 318 So
RT #73 Kyle Meadows 6-5 300 Sr
LT #74 Cole Mosier 6-6 335 Sr
Defense:
DE #99 Adrian Middleton 6-3 275 Jr
NT #77 Naquez Pringle 6-3 320 Sr
DE #35 Denzil Ware 6-2 245 Jr
SLB #41 Josh Allen 6-5 230 Jr
MLB #51 Courtney Love 6-2 242 Sr
WLB #34 Jordan Jones 6-2 221 Jr
NB #5 Kendall Randolph 6-0 183 Sr
CB #21 Chris Westry 6-4 195 Jr
SS #7 Mike Edwards 6-0 200 Jr
FS #25 Darius West 6-0 210 Jr
CB #8 Derrick Baity 6-3 186 Jr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
ATH Lynn Bowden 6-1 185
WR JaVonte Richardson 6-4 210
DE Joshua Paschal 6-4 255
ATH Tyrell Ajian 6-1 185
CB Yusuf Corker 6-0 183
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
at Southern Miss
|
-7
|
9/9
|
Eastern Kentucky
|
-35
|
9/16
|
at South Carolina
|
+4
|
9/23
|
Florida
|
+6
|
9/30
|
Eastern Michigan
|
-20
|
10/7
|
Missouri
|
-6
|
10/14
|
Bye
|
|
10/21
|
at Mississippi St
|
+5
|
10/28
|
Tennessee
|
+3
|
11/4
|
Ole Miss
|
-2
|
11/11
|
at Vanderbilt
|
+1
|
11/18
|
at Georgia
|
+14
|
11/25
|
Louisville
|
+6
|
Schedule Analysis: Kentucky is getting a lot of preseason love as I’m hearing 8-9 wins by many analysts. While this is Mark Stoops deepest and most talented roster in his five years in Lexington, the schedule features plenty of toss-ups (9 of the 12 games are power-rated at a TD or less). Right now, I only have Kentucky favored in 5 of their 12 games. However, six of their seven underdogs roles will come by six points or less so they are fully capable of stealing a couple of those. Kentucky is very experienced this year (17 returning starters) but so is Georgia (17 returning starters), South Carolina (16) and Vanderbilt (16) in the SEC East division. And keep in mind that the Wildcats play all three of those teams on the road. While I expect this to be another bowl season for Mark Stoops and Co, if I see any season win total at more than 7, I’ll be betting the UNDER.