Each week this season, we’ve been posting computer projected lines at pregame.com. It was our first year of doing computer projected lines so we didn’t have any past data points to see how the projections would do against the Vegas lines. We’ve actually been quite pleased with the results. Games where there has been of difference of more than 3 points has seen our computer lines beat the Vegas line at a 103-78-3 (57%) clip so far this season. That’s pretty solid and actually better than our own handicapping (much to our dismay). Keep in mind, these computer lines don’t take into consideration off-the-field factors like revenge or flat spots. They are basically a power-rating number difference between the two teams that also takes into consideration the home field advantage.
The Computer column is the computer projected line and the Difference column is the difference between the Vegas line and the Computer line. “+” numbers in the difference column say back the underdog. “-” numbers in the difference column say back the favorite. Let us know if you have questions.
Game |
Line |
Computer |
Difference |
303 Ohio |
|
|
|
304 Western Michigan |
-19 |
-20.52 |
-1.52 |
305 Colorado |
|
|
|
306 Washington |
-7.5 |
-5.26 |
+2.24 |
307 Baylor |
|
|
|
308 West Virginia |
-17 |
-16.83 |
+0.17 |
309 Kansas State |
|
|
|
310 TCU |
-4.5 |
-4.69 |
-0.19 |
311 New Mexico State |
|
|
|
312 South Alabama |
-12 |
-8.64 |
-3.36 |
313 Troy |
|
|
|
314 Georgia Southern |
+7 |
+5.31 |
+1.69 |
315 UL - Lafayette |
|
|
|
316 UL - Monroe |
+7 |
+5.46 |
+1.54 |
317 Oklahoma State |
|
|
|
318 Oklahoma |
-11 |
-10.41 |
+0.59 |
319 Arkansas State |
|
|
|
320 Texas State |
+23 |
+22.34 |
+1.16 |
321 Georgia State |
|
|
|
322 Idaho |
-6.5 |
-5.58 |
+0.92 |
323 Louisiana Tech |
|
|
|
324 Western Kentucky |
-9.5 |
-11.14 |
-1.64 |
325 Temple |
|
|
|
326 Navy |
-3 |
-5.21 |
-2.21 |
327 Florida |
|
|
|
328 Alabama |
-24 |
-20.29 |
+3.71 |
329 San Diego State |
|
|
|
330 Wyoming |
+6.5 |
+5.75 |
+1.25 |
331 Virginia Tech |
|
|
|
332 Clemson |
-10 |
-9.18 |
+0.82 |
333 Penn State |
|
|
|
334 Wisconsin |
-2.5 |
-0.48 |
+2.02 |