Keep in mind, these computer lines don’t take into consideration off-the-field factors like revenge or flat spots. They are basically a power-rating number difference between the two teams that also takes into consideration the home field advantage.
Games where there have been of difference of more than 3 points has seen my computer lines beat the Vegas line at a 90-70-3 (56%) clip so far this season. That's pretty solid and actually better than my own personal handicapping.
Of the 13 games where my computer is off more than 3 points compared to the Vegas line, my 5 favorite teams to back would be Nevada +6.5, UCLA +13, FIU +2.5, Michigan St +21.5 and Boston College -7
Let me know if you have any questions or concerns,
Brad
Game |
Line |
Computer |
Difference |
301 Kent State |
|
|
|
302 Bowling Green |
+2.5 |
+0.49 |
+2.01 |
303 Ohio |
|
|
|
304 Central Michigan |
+1 |
-0.85 |
+1.85 |
305 Ball State |
|
|
|
306 Toledo |
-20.5 |
-19.35 |
+1.15 |
307 Northern Illinois |
|
|
|
308 Eastern Michigan |
+2.5 |
+4.68 |
+2.18 |
311 Louisville |
|
|
|
312 Houston |
+14.5 |
+12.59 |
+1.91 |
313 Arkansas State |
|
|
|
314 Troy |
-8 |
-5.48 |
+2.52 |
315 Memphis |
|
|
|
316 Cincinnati |
+7.5 |
+4.72 |
+2.78 |
317 UNLV |
|
|
|
318 Boise State |
-28 |
-27.82 |
+0.18 |
319 Connecticut |
|
|
|
320 Boston College |
-7 |
-10.43 |
-3.43 |
321 UL - Monroe |
|
|
|
322 Appalachian St |
-25.5 |
-23.62 |
+1.88 |
323 UTEP |
|
|
|
324 Rice |
-1.5 |
-0.45 |
+1.05 |
325 Miami, FL |
|
|
|
326 NC State |
+3 |
+1.78 |
+1.22 |
327 Texas Tech |
|
|
|
328 Iowa State |
+3.5 |
+3.63 |
-0.13 |
329 Iowa |
|
|
|
330 Illinois |
+10 |
+7.68 |
+2.32 |
331 Northwestern |
|
|
|
332 Minnesota |
+1.5 |
+1.67 |
-0.17 |
333 Wisconsin |
|
|
|
334 Purdue |
+28 |
+25.82 |
+2.18 |
335 Duke |
|
|
|
336 Pittsburgh |
-7.5 |
-8.91 |
-1.41 |
337 Tex San Antonio |
|
|
|
338 Texas A&M |
-27.5 |
-26.29 |
+1.21 |
339 Maryland |
|
|
|
340 Nebraska |
-13.5 |
-19.75 |
-6.25 |
341 Oklahoma |
|
|
|
342 West Virginia |
+3 |
-0.92 |
+3.92 |
343 Middle Tennessee |
|
|
|
344 Charlotte |
+4 |
+3.73 |
+0.27 |
345 Massachusetts |
|
|
|
346 BYU |
-30 |
-32.14 |
-2.14 |
349 UL - Lafayette |
|
|
|
350 Georgia |
-23 |
-25.67 |
-2.67 |
351 San Diego State |
|
|
|
352 Wyoming |
+10 |
+10.75 |
-0.75 |
353 New Mexico |
|
|
|
354 Colorado State |
-4.5 |
-4.09 |
+0.41 |
355 Indiana |
|
|
|
356 Michigan |
-24 |
-22.82 |
+1.18 |
357 Virginia Tech |
|
|
|
358 Notre Dame |
-1 |
-0.11 |
+0.89 |
359 Kansas State |
|
|
|
360 Baylor |
+2 |
-2.78 |
+4.78 |
361 Virginia |
|
|
|
362 Georgia Tech |
-11 |
-13.19 |
-2.19 |
363 Florida State |
|
|
|
364 Syracuse |
+21 |
+16.72 |
+4.28 |
365 Mississippi |
|
|
|
366 Vanderbilt |
+10 |
+7.28 |
+2.72 |
367 Texas State |
|
|
|
368 New Mexico State |
-9.5 |
-9.99 |
-0.49 |
369 Arizona |
|
|
|
370 Oregon State |
-6.5 |
-4.19 |
+2.31 |
371 Arizona State |
|
|
|
372 Washington |
-27 |
-23.51 |
+3.49 |
373 Washington State |
|
|
|
374 Colorado |
-4.5 |
-3.34 |
+1.16 |
375 Stanford |
|
|
|
376 California |
+11 |
+9.65 |
+1.35 |
377 Southern Miss |
|
|
|
378 North Texas |
No Line |
+4.1 |
N/A |
379 Old Dominion |
|
|
|
380 Florida Atlantic |
+8 |
+6.9 |
+1.1 |
381 Buffalo |
|
|
|
382 Western Michigan |
-35 |
-31.8 |
+3.2 |
383 Marshall |
|
|
|
384 Florida International |
+2.5 |
-2.09 |
+4.59 |
385 Arkansas |
|
|
|
386 Mississippi State |
-1.5 |
-1.12 |
+0.38 |
387 Hawaii |
|
|
|
388 Fresno State |
+2.5 |
+0.64 |
+1.86 |
389 South Florida |
|
|
|
390 SMU |
+13 |
+11.92 |
+1.08 |
391 Tulsa |
|
|
|
392 Central Florida |
+1.5 |
-1.04 |
+2.54 |
393 Temple |
|
|
|
394 Tulane |
+15 |
+16.9 |
-1.9 |
395 Ohio State |
|
|
|
396 Michigan State |
+21.5 |
+16.57 |
+4.93 |
397 Texas |
|
|
|
398 Kansas |
+24 |
+21.35 |
+2.65 |
399 Clemson |
|
|
|
400 Wake Forest |
+22.5 |
+18.95 |
+3.55 |
401 Missouri |
|
|
|
402 Tennessee |
-16 |
-17.92 |
-1.92 |
403 Georgia Southern |
|
|
|
404 Georgia State |
+2.5 |
+4.9 |
-2.4 |
405 USC |
|
|
|
406 UCLA |
+13 |
+8.34 |
+4.66 |
407 Oklahoma State |
|
|
|
408 TCU |
-4.5 |
-0.41 |
+4.09 |
409 Penn State |
|
|
|
410 Rutgers |
+28 |
+22.85 |
+5.15 |
411 Oregon |
|
|
|
412 Utah |
-14.5 |
-13.77 |
+0.73 |
413 Air Force |
|
|
|
414 San Jose State |
+10 |
+7.65 |
+2.35 |
415 Utah State |
|
|
|
416 Nevada |
+6.5 |
+2.82 |
+3.68 |
417 Navy |
|
|
|
418 East Carolina |
+7.5 |
+7.67 |
-0.17 |
419 Florida |
|
|
|
420 LSU |
-13.5 |
-13.64 |
-0.14 |