Forums

Forums
Where sports bettors talk!

GREG SHAKER: College Football Totals

CFB
Thread Starter GREG SHAKER: College Football Totals
Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12730
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

It's been a busy week with so much to know early in the CFB Season. I am going to have lot's of thoughts on some games in this thread this week and some actual Picks as well for Thursday through Saturday and that will start loading either later today or tomorrow morning depending on when I get caught up. I have my usual mid week meeting this afternoon. That is normally scheduled on Tuesday but a minor emergency caused us to delay that...

One thing I wanted to cover here today though is the fact as handicappers we have to dig deeper when looking at stats because Stats DO LIE. I guess that's opposite of what the Ole Saying is. Case in point: I have seen more than one person (Not sure Exactly where) talk about CFB Plays Per Game or Offensive Tempo. In doing so they have referenced Texas State and Ohio as being TOP 10 PACE this season. Well according to the STATS that is correct. But Wait. OHIO and TEXAS STATE played each other this season and they did 3 OVERTIMES. With 2 games played so far this SKEWED both teams numbers a lot. Without OT each would be closer to about Top 50..

My point is that it's always better to know the philosophy of each team in this instance. The same can be said of other STATS that might look NUTS but really are not due to a circumstance. And this can be said in other sports as well. An umpire might have SKEWED numbers on RPG due to one crazy game he worked at Coors Field that saw 27 Runs but otherwise his numbers are low...etc..Do the work...

I will be back!!

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

razorback fan
Joined: 10/24/2007
Posts: 13851
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

valid point G.  was looking over the hog/b-cat, certainly no side action, total dicey too.

got business friends swear bbq at the commissary in g-town over there in Memphis.  they got me some dry rub, haven't tried it - yet.

have a great week...

We shall see.

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12730
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

The Germantown Commisary is Awesome RBF! Easily my fav in the Memphis area.  

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12730
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

The First Posted CFB Total is actually a 2% Client Play as well.....

128 Michigan / 127 Colorado Pinnacle OVER 57
Analysis: Colorado will bring the 11th Highest Effective Tempo Offense (Adjusted for OT Games) into this game but they don't have the horses to stop the Wolverines. We are not over-analyzing this one as our Models agree that we will see some fireworks here, perhaps even on special teams. The Buff's QB is Dual Threat and the kind of QB that can give Michigan Fits so despite the Solid Michigan D Colorado should endzone a couple or 3 times. This one opened 56 at Cris and 57 at Pinny. Most likely not much movement is going to happen and could easily wander down but we got it early..

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12730
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Probably the only play posted today. More tomorrow and Sat Morning..

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

razorback fan
Joined: 10/24/2007
Posts: 13851
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Like the selection, figure Mich will get 41 of that, maybe more.

We shall see.

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12730
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Yessir that would be the plan RBF..

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

windycitywarrior
Joined: 11/15/2012
Posts: 1693
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Need a good weekend. Heat up my friend!

shaka
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 20139
All Pro
Top 25 Contributor

BOL Greg...

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12730
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Just added another CFB Total for Clients...

#113 Western Michigan/Illinois OVER 53: This one actually opened much higher and was at 62 at some spots earlier this week. Moving below the 54 gives us this one to play..

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

Rate This
  • 13 replies
  • 1 subscriber
  • Posted6 months ago