One of the many projects I do each off-season is that I go through my power ratings and develop my early Vegas lines for every game played for the upcoming college football season. This project helps me not only with my season win total best bets but also my college game of the year picks. I also like seeing how far my preseason lines are off when it comes to the end of the regular season (did I overrate a team or underrate them?).
Keep in mind, most of these lines are based on my power ratings with a few exceptions that take into consideration the situation (big game on deck, off a bye) while also considering the series history. For example, Florida has beaten Tennessee 11 straight times and even though my power ratings called for Tennessee to be favored by 12 or 13 points, I made my line Tennessee -9. I simply can't favor the Volunteers by double-digits when they haven't been able to beat the Gators straight up in more than a decade. The ol' Ralph Michaels line; "you have to learn how to win before you learn how to cover" certainly comes into play in that game.
Finally, I did not compute these lines to the exact decimal. If my power ratings called for a team to be an 6.5-point favorite, I often rounded my line to -6 or -7 depending on the series or situation.
Feel free to ask questions on any game that you think is way off or how I came up with that particular line. I'll post a couple more conferences in the upcoming days.
Illinois |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/3 |
Murray St |
-35 |
9/10 |
North Carolina |
+13 |
9/17 |
Western Michigan |
+1 |
9/24 |
Bye |
|
10/1 |
at Nebraska |
+17 |
10/8 |
Purdue |
-5 |
10/15 |
at Rutgers |
+2 |
10/22 |
at Michigan |
+26 |
10/29 |
Minnesota |
+3 |
11/5 |
Michigan St |
+13 |
11/12 |
at Wisconsin |
+17 |
11/19 |
Iowa |
+11 |
11/26 |
at Northwestern |
+11 |
Indiana |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/1 |
at FIU (Thu) |
-10 |
9/10 |
Ball St |
-17 |
9/17 |
Bye |
|
9/24 |
Wake Forest |
-6 |
10/1 |
Michigan St |
+9 |
10/8 |
at Ohio St |
+21 |
10/15 |
Nebraska |
+7 |
10/22 |
at Northwestern |
+8 |
10/29 |
Maryland |
-7 |
11/5 |
at Rutgers |
-1 |
11/12 |
Penn St |
+3 |
11/19 |
at Michigan |
+21 |
11/26 |
Purdue |
-9 |
Iowa |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/3 |
Miami, Oh |
-28 |
9/10 |
Iowa St |
-16 |
9/17 |
North Dakota St |
-13 |
9/24 |
at Rutgers |
-12 |
10/1 |
Northwestern |
-9 |
10/8 |
at Minnesota |
-4 |
10/15 |
at Purdue |
-13 |
10/22 |
Wisconsin |
-6 |
10/29 |
Bye |
|
11/5 |
at Penn St |
+1 |
11/12 |
Michigan |
+2 |
11/19 |
at Illinois |
-11 |
11/25 |
Nebraska (Fri) |
-4 |
Maryland |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/3 |
Howard |
-49 |
9/9 |
at FIU (Fri) |
-9 |
9/17 |
at UCF |
-6 |
9/24 |
Bye |
|
10/1 |
Purdue |
-6 |
10/8 |
at Penn St |
+13 |
10/15 |
Minnesota |
+3 |
10/22 |
Michigan St |
+13 |
10/29 |
at Indiana |
+7 |
11/5 |
at Michigan |
+24 |
11/12 |
Ohio St |
+17 |
11/19 |
at Nebraska |
+17 |
11/26 |
Rutgers |
-5 |
Michigan |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/3 |
Hawaii |
-42 |
9/10 |
UCF |
-35 |
9/17 |
Colorado |
-21 |
9/24 |
Penn St |
-14 |
10/1 |
Wisconsin |
-13 |
10/8 |
at Rutgers |
-18 |
10/15 |
Bye |
|
10/22 |
Illinois |
-26 |
10/29 |
at Michigan St |
E |
11/5 |
Maryland |
-24 |
11/12 |
at Iowa |
-2 |
11/19 |
Indiana |
-21 |
11/26 |
at Ohio St |
+5 |
Michigan St |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/2 |
Furman (Fri) |
-41 |
9/10 |
Bye |
|
9/17 |
at Notre Dame |
+6 |
9/24 |
Wisconsin |
-7 |
10/1 |
at Indiana |
-9 |
10/8 |
BYU |
-10 |
10/15 |
Northwestern |
-11 |
10/22 |
at Maryland |
-13 |
10/29 |
Michigan |
E |
11/5 |
at Illinois |
-13 |
11/12 |
Rutgers |
-21 |
11/19 |
Ohio St |
E |
11/26 |
at Penn St |
E |
Minnesota |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/1 |
Oregon St (Thu) |
-11 |
9/10 |
Indiana St |
-21 |
9/17 |
Bye |
|
9/24 |
Colorado St |
-16 |
10/1 |
at Penn St |
+9 |
10/8 |
Iowa |
+4 |
10/15 |
at Maryland |
-3 |
10/22 |
Rutgers |
-11 |
10/29 |
at Illinois |
-3 |
11/5 |
Purdue |
-12 |
11/12 |
at Nebraska |
+12 |
11/19 |
Northwestern |
-1 |
11/26 |
at Wisconsin |
+11 |
Nebraska |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/3 |
Fresno St |
-28 |
9/10 |
Wyoming |
-30 |
9/17 |
Oregon |
-2 |
9/24 |
at Northwestern |
-1 |
10/1 |
Illinois |
-17 |
10/8 |
Bye |
|
10/15 |
at Indiana |
-7 |
10/22 |
Purdue |
-21 |
10/29 |
at Wisconsin |
+3 |
11/5 |
at Ohio St |
+12 |
11/12 |
Minnesota |
-12 |
11/19 |
Maryland |
-17 |
11/25 |
at Iowa (Fri) |
+4 |
Northwestern |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/3 |
Western Michigan |
-7 |
9/10 |
Illinois St |
-13 |
9/17 |
Duke |
-7 |
9/24 |
Nebraska |
+1 |
10/1 |
at Iowa |
+9 |
10/8 |
Bye |
|
10/15 |
at Michigan St |
+11 |
10/22 |
Indiana |
-8 |
10/29 |
at Ohio St |
+17 |
11/5 |
Wisconsin |
E |
11/12 |
at Purdue |
-7 |
11/19 |
at Minnesota |
+1 |
11/26 |
Illinois |
-11 |
Ohio State |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/3 |
Bowling Green |
-28 |
9/10 |
Tulsa |
-28 |
9/17 |
at Oklahoma |
+7 |
9/24 |
Bye |
|
10/1 |
Rutgers |
-27 |
10/8 |
Indiana |
-21 |
10/15 |
at Wisconsin |
-3 |
10/22 |
at Penn St |
-4 |
10/29 |
Northwestern |
-17 |
11/5 |
Nebraska |
-12 |
11/12 |
at Maryland |
-17 |
11/19 |
at Michigan St |
E |
11/26 |
Michigan |
-5 |
Penn St |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/3 |
Kent St |
-24 |
9/10 |
at Pittsburgh |
+4 |
9/17 |
Temple |
-10 |
9/24 |
at Michigan |
+14 |
10/1 |
Minnesota |
-9 |
10/8 |
Maryland |
-13 |
10/15 |
Bye |
|
10/22 |
Ohio St |
+4 |
10/29 |
at Purdue |
-10 |
11/5 |
Iowa |
-1 |
11/12 |
at Indiana |
-3 |
11/19 |
at Rutgers |
-9 |
11/26 |
Michigan St |
E |
Purdue |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/3 |
Eastern Kentucky |
-20 |
9/10 |
Cincinnati |
+3 |
9/17 |
Bye |
|
9/24 |
Nevada |
-6 |
10/1 |
at Maryland |
+6 |
10/8 |
at Illinois |
+5 |
10/15 |
Iowa |
+13 |
10/22 |
at Nebraska |
+21 |
10/29 |
Penn St |
+10 |
11/5 |
at Minnesota |
+12 |
11/12 |
Northwestern |
+7 |
11/19 |
Wisconsin |
+11 |
11/26 |
at Indiana |
+9 |
Rutgers |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/3 |
at Washington |
+24 |
9/10 |
Howard |
-49 |
9/17 |
New Mexico |
-7 |
9/24 |
Iowa |
+12 |
10/1 |
at Ohio St |
+27 |
10/8 |
Michigan |
+18 |
10/15 |
Illinois |
-2 |
10/22 |
at Minnesota |
+11 |
10/29 |
Bye |
|
11/5 |
Indiana |
+1 |
11/12 |
at Michigan St |
+21 |
11/19 |
Penn St |
+9 |
11/26 |
at Maryland |
+5 |
Wisconsin |
Date |
Opponent |
Line |
9/3 |
† LSU |
+11 |
9/10 |
Akron |
-24 |
9/17 |
Georgia St |
-30 |
9/24 |
at Michigan St |
+7 |
10/1 |
at Michigan |
+13 |
10/8 |
Bye |
|
10/15 |
Ohio St |
+3 |
10/22 |
at Iowa |
+6 |
10/29 |
Nebraska |
-3 |
11/5 |
at Northwestern |
E |
11/12 |
Illinois |
-17 |
11/19 |
at Purdue |
-11 |
11/26 |
Minnesota |
-11 |