Thursday, Nov. 26
NCAA Football
SOUTH FLORIDA (-24.5, 54) at CENTRAL FLORIDA (7:30 pm ET, ESPN)
Central Florida is a horrible team that is 0-11 SU (2-9 ATS) and they have lost by an average of 22 points per game this season. They are terrible on both sides of the ball, averaging just 14.9 points per game and 4.2 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 27.2 ppg and 5.7 yppl). On defense, they allow 37.1 points per game and 6.6 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 27.8 ppg and 5.6 yppl).
South Florida enters this game in strong current form, going 6-1 SU/ATS in their past seven games. They should also be focused after losing 16-0 at home versus Central Florida last year. South Florida was actually a +9.5 home underdog in that game, and a +27.5 road underdog the year before in 2013, so this is an incredible adjustment in the line this season. However, the line looks accurate as my power ratings make South Florida a 26-point favorite in this game tonight.
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TEXAS TECH at TEXAS (-1, 71.5) (7:30 pm ET, FS1)
Texas Tech has struggled in this series the past two seasons, losing 34-13 last year as a +4 point home underdog and losing 41-16 in 2013 as a +5 point road underdog. The Red Raiders have an explosive offense this season which averages 46.5 points per game on 7.1 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 32.8 ppg and 6.0 yppl). However, their defense has been terrible, allowing 42.4 points per game and 6.7 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 35.6 ppg and 6.2 yppl).
Texas is just 4-6 SU this season, but they did beat Oklahoma. The Longhorns have the opposite makeup of Texas Tech as Texas is a defensive team with a weak offense. The Longhorns are averaging just 24.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 29.8 ppg and 5.9 yppl). However, the Texas defense has been strong this year, allowing only 29.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play (versus opponents that average 33.3 ppg and 6.1 yppl).
My power ratings actually make Texas Tech as a 4-point favorite in this game, however, the Longhorns are the much better defensive team and Texas has dominated this series recently, going a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five seasons.
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My 3-game NFL "Turkey Day" Triple Play is now posted:
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