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Shaker's Shorts: Trust Your Numbers

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Thread Starter Shaker's Shorts: Trust Your Numbers
Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12781
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I have Dabbled in the Stock Market a lot for a very long time, not as much as I used to as it is becoming more and more difficult to Find Value, and even when you do there are outside forces that often can blow you out of the water. I am still long on many plays but the Buy Low/Sell High thing is not for me anymore, or at least for right now...

However, because I have done this I have chatted often with Stock Brokers, exchanging ideas, and there is no doubt that play the Stocks is so very much like Betting Sports. I am not going to go into all of the reasons that are similar as that is a conversation for the future but one of the things I have heard over and over is that you Must TRUST YOUR NUMBERS. Betting Sports has changed quite a bit and unlike the Old Days that many of us remember, there are many more forces that Move a Betting Line. Info is not only King right now, it's instant, and with more betting options, there are more people doing it, sharing info, and spreading the word.

I say the above to say this. Betting is certainly about being on the right side of the play. But it's also about getting the Best Number, which can increase your profitability as much as 3 to 5% or even more. But you don't have to get the Best Number every time and the fact is you will not.

Case in Point: My Biggest Play this past Saturday was Miss State/Auburn UNDER the Total. I put this play out early in the week at 56 because every indication was to me that that would be the best number. But it was not. In fact it did not take long for it to jump to 58. But it Didn't Stop there! It went to 59 and even 59.5 and 60 at a couple of books. During the process I was bombarded with questions about My Big Play. "Hey Greg the SHARPS are on the OVER." "Hey Greg what should I do? Not play it?" Hey Greg, looks like you blew this one." 

Throughout the process I did TRUST my number and continuously told people that the Line Move makes this play even more worthy. Should you NOT Play it? Of course you should! You got a better number!! In this particular case it was a "Market Mover" that made this number jump and we are seeing more and more of that. Market Mover defined as a Bettor that moves lines when he bets or when he makes public his bet. Unfortunately this guy does NOT know the SEC like I do.

The Final in that game was 17-9. I won. But that's not the point. The point is DO THE WORK. When you are done TRUST YOUR NUMBERS. All of the SHARPS Talk Frankly makes me sick to my stomach. It's Bad Info and it's hurts Bettors more that it helps them. In fact it doesn't help anyone at all. But that's another discussion for later as well. I ramble..

A 173-128 Forum Alternative Plays.

As usual this week I will College and Professional Football Plays, many of the Alternative Nature, ie Halftimes 1st and 2nd, Team Totals, etc. I was 1-2 on these last week. Yikes!! We will hope for better things..

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

JoeD
Joined: 12/30/2011
Posts: 538
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Be careful with that kind of intelligent discourse Greg, that kind of blasphemy could get you kicked out of the handicapper's union.

Best wishes for a good week-  

Joe D

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12781
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Fortunately Joe my Membership was terminated there due to insubordination. I do miss the yearly BBQ's with all of the family Members..

Good Luck to you this week too..

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

pauliemitch
Joined: 10/24/2010
Posts: 10139
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Top 75 Contributor

What about the post that tells everyone. Hum this line has come down quite a bit. Vegas is begging  me to bet the Packers. I will bet the Chiefs. Can't fool me. I just cringe at those posts. No work being done, and just craziness. A little off topic, but if anyone didn't see that the Pack was under valued at 4 1/2, then something is really wrong. Sorry just the truth.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB0100.00-114.00
Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12781
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pauliemitch

What about the post that tells everyone. Hum this line line has come down quite a bit. Vegas is begging  me to bet the Packers. I will bet the Chiefs. Can't fool me. I just cringe at those posts. No work being done, and just craziness. A little off topic, but if anyone didn't see that the Pack was under valued at 4 1/2, then something is really wrong. Sorry just the truth.

Ha Yeah and there's the Ole "Trap Line." There's all kinds of fabulous ways to bet games so why should anyone even bother to Handicap the game right?

Good stuff Paulie..

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

razorback fan
Joined: 10/24/2007
Posts: 13856
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Are the days of the contrarian bettor gone with the wind?

We shall see.

pauliemitch
Joined: 10/24/2010
Posts: 10139
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Yes I have to tune myself out to those trap lines. They make a seasoned bettor, or an astute handicapper  (Like yourself) useless really.  You can make a big page on why you like the team. Then some guy who everyone follows comes in, and says trap line. Someone says they agree, and it becomes a virus that cannot be stopped. Trust your numbers, and abilities. Very good stuff Shaker.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB0100.00-114.00
Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12781
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

razorback fan

Are the days of the contrarian bettor gone with the wind?

No way! More alive and well than ever before. "Sharps" often move lines enough for some of us to grab that number that we have been waiting for and fire a bet..

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12781
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Thursday Twitter Play #1 #160 Alabama/Georgia UNDER 27.5 1st Half. That's a "Westgate" Number. I'd play to to 27 here..

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

sleepyj
Joined: 11/01/2012
Posts: 32712
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Top 10 Contributor

good read Greg, best of luck this week.

**32-19** (61%) All-Time GOY    

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