09/20 04:00 PM CF (383) UTAH STATE at (384 ARKANSAS STATE
FREE PICK: (383) UTAH STATE +2.5
This is a game that I really didn’t focus on until Thursday evening. My initial take was that due to the Chuckie Keeton injury it was stay away material. But upon examining this matchup more closely, I think I can build a case for the visitors.
Let’s start with Keeton. He’s out, and that means Darell Garretson is back under center for the Aggies. Garretson saw ample action last year when Keeton went down. He started slowly, but came on reasonably well as he gained experience.
Garretson is not as talented as Keeton. There’s not any question about that. But the fact is that the dynamic Keeton wasn’t playing anywhere near his prior level before getting hurt again last week. a 55% completion rate with just 4.6 YPA is not exactly sensational, and Keeton wasn’t showing the same explosion with his legs. So I’m not really sure there’s much of a downgrade here with Garretson once more inheriting the starting gig.
The other aspect of this game that has me intrigued is how Arkansas State is going to get its offense rolling against the Aggies. It’s really not an ideal catchup for the Red Wolves. Fredi Knighten is an exciting QB. But he’s definitely what I’d call a legs first signal caller. Knighten is going to run the football, and for most part he’ll feature a short passing game that is pretty low risk.
That being the case, it would seem to me there’s a decent chance that Utah State can take away what Knighten does best. The Aggies are once again proving to be very tough against the run. They can definitely be had through the air, as we saw in the loss at Tennessee. But getting chunks of yardage overland isn’t likely for Arkansas State here.
My rankings show Utah State as the better football team. It’s not by any means a blowout on those numbers, but it’s a clear edge. It’s my feeling that the line adjustment for Keeton being out is a bit too much, particularly in view of how ordinary he’d been over the first few games. So I’m looking at this as a spot where grabbing a field goal would be outstanding. Even with the spread just below that, I still see there being some value with the dog. Make it Utah State plus the points.