This is the 2nd of my CFB previews for the year. One more thing. I really did try and not write as much (really I did), but it just didn't turn out that way. Sorry for all the reading. LOL. Nothing out of the ordinary this year. All my own writing, but obviously i did have to do allot of reading (which I have been doing a ton) and the...
Info Gathered For My Previews Have Been Taken From Phil Steels's CFB Preview, Athlon Sports and The Sporting News. Trends are From Marc Lawrence's Playbook.
American Athletic Conference Preview Can Be Found Here
ACC Atlantic Division (Teams Are In Predicted Order Finish)
The Florida State Seminoles rode the arm on Heisman trophy winner Jameis Winston to a 14-0 record and a National Title last year. This team is loaded once again and they are favored to win the ACC and are also favored to repeat as national champions. Jameis Winston took the nation by storm last year as a freshman in helping the Seminoles average 51.6 ppg. He threw for 4057 yards on 66.9 completion %, throwing 44 TDs to just 10 INTs. Now as a sophomore you would expect better numbers, but it is hard to top those, but if anyone can it would be him. Jameis does welcome back leading WR Rashad Greene, who had 1128 yards receiving with 9 TD’s last year. . He threw for 4057 yards on 66.9 completion %, throwing 44 TDs to just 10 INTs. Now as a sophomore you would expect better numbers, but it is hard to top those, but if anyone can it would be him. Jameis does welcome back leading WR Rashad Greene, who had 1128 yards receiving with 9 TD’s last year. The running game loses 1000 yard back Davonta Freeman, but there is plenty of talent waiting in the wings to take over, while the OL is rated 4th best in the nation, with all 5 starters back and all 5 being seniors. The defense was stout last year, allowing just 12.1 ppg and will be very good this year with 6 starters and 22 lettermen back. The DL is rated 3rd best in the nation, while the LB corps is rated 10 and the secondary is 2nd. Oh and to put the icing on the cake, the special teams are rated tops in the nation.The Noles are loaded on both sides of the ball. The offense will again score in the upper 40’s per game, while the defense will allow less than 15 ppg. Last year the Noles were double digit favorites in every game and will most likely be so again. They do have a neutral site game vs Oklahoma State and road games vs Louisville and Miami, but still this is a team that has all the tools to run the table once again and win a second national title in a row. KEY TREND: 12-2 ATS as home favorites of more than 14 vs an opponent that is off a SU loss as a favotite.
The Clemson Tigers had a super 2013, in which they went 11-2 overall and 7-1 in the ACC, while ending the year with a 40-35 win over Ohio State in the Orange Bowl. This year much of their offense must be replaced, but still the Tigers will again be a factor in the AAC this year. Thanks to Tahj Boyd, the Tigers have averaged 40+ ppg the last two year, but he is now gone and so is RB Roderick McDowell and WRs Sammy Watkins and Martavis Bryant who combined for 2292 yards receiving and 19 TDs last year. This offense lost a tone at the skill positions, but Clemson has been reloading and they still have 4 WR’s that had at least 20 catches last year, plus highly touted Wayne Gallam is ready to take over at the RB spot as a redshirt freshman. Freshman Deshaun Watson was the #2 QB coming out of high school and should have a solid year running this offense, but won’t put up the numbers that Boyd did just year. The defense for the Tigers allowed just 22.4 ppg last year and with 7 starters back and 27 lettermen, they should be a stronger group this year. Stephone Anthony is the leader of this defense, after posting 131 tackles, 4 sacks and 9 TFL last year from the MLB spot. He anchors a LB corps that is one of the best in the ACC, while the DL is rated as the best in the Nation by Phil Steele. All 4 starters on the DL are seniors. Oh yeah, Phil also rates the secondary as the 17 th best in the nation. Special teams is down though and is rated as 11th best in the ACC. The Tigers have been a very consistent team of late and they have a shot at notching their 4 th 10 win season in a row this year. The offense will be down some, but this defense will be the 2 nd best in the ACC and one of the best in the nation, which will make this team very dangerous. They do have to travel to Georgia, Georgia Tech and Florida State, but if they win just one of those games then this team will notch 10 wins for the regular season this year, as the rest of the schedule is more than manageable for this powerful team. KEY TREND: 5-1 ATS the game after playing Florida State.
The Louisville Cardinals had a very nice 12-1 year in 2013, which ended with a blowout of the Miami Hurricanes in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Now the Cardinals move up in class to the ACC and must do so without their HC and QB from last year. Time to rebuild a little for the Cardinals. Teddy Bridgewater is gone after hitting 71% of his passes last year for 3970 yards, 31 TDs and 4 INTs. That is hard to replace and the burden of it will fall on sophomore Will Gardner, who threw all of 12 passes last year. Gardner does have a good arm and will have the luxury of throwing to probably the best set of WR’s in the ACC, including Devante Parker who had 886 receiving yards and 12 TDs last year. The Cardinals also have back RB Dominique Brown, who ran for 825 yards and 8 TDs last year, plus Michael Dyer, who ran for 1000 yards for the Auburn Tigers back in 2011. Up front the Cardinals return all 4 of 5 starters to an OL that is rated 2nd in the ACC and 19th in the nation. The defense took some hits as they have just 4 starters and 2 of their top 8 tacklers back from last year. A big loss was Marcus Smith and his 14.5 sacks he had last year, but they do have DE Lorenzo Mauldin, who had 9.5 sacks and 4 PBU’s last year. The Cards do have 8 upperclassmen starting on the defense and have hired DC Todd Grantham from Georgia, but still it will be hard to put up the same numbers they did last year that saw them rank 1st in the nation in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense. The Cards have a new coach, a new QB, a defense that lost a ton of talent and they are now plying in a much tougher conference. The Cardinals will not win 12 games this year, but still Petrino is an excellent coach and he was 41-9 in his first stint here. The schedule has some pitfall, but if the new QB can play as expected and if there is not too much dropoff in their defense then this team has a shot at 10 wins by season end. I will call for a 9-3 regular season mark. KEY TREND: 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games vs the ACC.
The NC State Wolfpack went through a miserable year in Dave Doeren’s first year at the helm, as they finished at 3-9 overall and winless in the ACC for the first time since 1959. This is a young team this year, but also it looks like an improved team, but still may be a year away from contending for a bowl game. The offense ranked 70th in the nation in total offense and 97th in scoring offense, but they have the potential to be much better this year. Florida transfer Jacoby Brissett will take over the QB duties and he is in the mold of QB’s Jordan Lynch and Chandler Harnish that Doeren coached at Northern Illinois. Brissett can run and throw and will be throwing to a WR corps that has a chance to surprise this year. Bryan Underwood is the leading returning WR with 32 catches last year. The running game should be solid with Shadrach Thornton (768 yards, 4 TDs), but he will be running behind one of the weaker offensive lines in the ACC, despite the fact that 4 of 5 starters are back. The defense had more holes than a screen door last year, allowing 30.2 ppg overall and 39.8 ppg in their last 4 games. They do have 7 starters back, but did lose their top 3 tacklers from last year. The strength of the defense will be the DL, led by Thomas Teal, who had 3 sacks and 8 TFL last year, but the LB is the weakest in the ACC and the secondary isn’t far behind. Even with a weak WR corps and OL, I see the offense as vastly improved with the addition of Brissett. Being able to make plays with his legs should keep more drives alive and thus more points at the end of them. The defense still has a few issues. They will be solid up front, but the back 7 is average at best. Still I expect some improvements from them overall. The non-conference slate is a joke and they do get teams like Wake Forest, Boston College and Georgia Tech at home, so they will be an improved team in the standings, as well as on the field and I feel they have an excellent shot at making a bowl game. KEY TREND: 10-1 ATS with a week of rest.
The Syracuse Orange had a nice 7-6 season last year, which ended with a 21-17 win over Minnesota in the Texas Bowl. The Orange are now in the second year of Shafer’s systems and have plenty of returning talent to make a run at a 3rd straight bowl game. The Orange averaged just 22.7 ppg last year, but now that they have settled on dual threat QB Terrel Hunt the prospects of an improved offense are there. Hunt ran for 500 yards in 10 games last and has a solid arm as well. He is the leading returning rusher, but there is a young an talented stable of backs ready to show what they can do. The WR corps saw no more than 500 yards receiving form anyone, but still this is an experienced group with 6 of the top 7 pass catchers back from last year. The offensive line has all 5 starters back, led by 1st team all-ACC OT Sean Hickey. Overall this will be one of the better OLs in the league. The defense had its moments last year, but also struggled at times, allowing 48+ points 4 times on the year. 7 starters are back to this group, which includes 5 of their top 6 tacklers from last year. The secondary looks to be a problem as they are a bit thin back there, but the front 7 for the Orange are rated middle of the pack in the ACC. The special teams return all the key players from a year ago and should be a very solid group.The Orange have made it to a bowl game in 3 of the last 4 years, winning all 3 times and I see another bowl invite this year, The are the most experienced team in the ACC and are improved on both sides of the ball. Road games vs Pittsburgh and Clemson are rough as is home games vs Louisville and Florida State, but the rest of the schedule is pretty manageable. I see the Orange going 7-5 this year. KEY TREND: 12-1 ATS as home favorites off a double digit SU Win.
The Boston College Eagles had a nice year in Steve Addazio’s first year as they went 7-6 on the year and made it to a bowl game. They were thrashed 42-19 by Arizona in that game and the prospects of another bowl game look a bit out of reach as this is clearly a Rebuilding year for them. The Eagles put up 27.7 ppg last year, but it’s hard to see them coming all that close this year with just 3 starters back. The biggest loss will be that of RB Andre Williams, who ran for 2177 yards last year. It is expected that not just one player will handle the RB duties, but more of a committee. They also lose QB Rettig and their top 4 pass catchers from last year, including 1000 yard receiver Alex Amidon. QB Tyler Murphy (Transfer- Florida) will take over the QB duties, but still who will he get the ball to with the skill positions being so thin. 78 career starts return to the OL with the whole interior back, so this looks to be the strength of this offense. The defense looks to be a bit better than last year’s group that allowed 28.9 ppg, as they have 6 starters back. The DL is the strength of this unit, but the LB corps is a bit weak, which is unusual as this team always has great LB play. The Secondary returns 3 of 4 starters, but there is very little depth in this group thus it is rated as one of the worst in the ACC. Special Teams loses Nate Freese, who was kicker and punter and that leaves a big void in this unit. Boston College went to a bowl game last year, but I feel that it will be much harder to do so this year. They lost way too much at the skill positions to come close to last year’s numbers, while the defense will again be weak. They have home games vs Pittsburgh, Clemson and Louisville, plus road games vs NC State Va Tech and Florida State and a non-conference game vs USC. The Eagles will not fly this year. KEY TREND: Visitor in the NC State series is 0-9 ATS the last 9 meetings.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons did go bowling in 2011, but after last year’s 4-8 record they have now had 5 losing years in a row. Gone is longtime coach John Grobe and in steps Dave Clawson, who coached Bowling Green from 2009-13. 54 lettermen do return, but just 10 starters overall, so it may not be all that rosy in his first year. Wake Forest averaged just 18.3 ppg last year and 18.5 ppg back in 2012, and this year they must replace their QB, top rusher and top WR from a year ago, so this again looks like the weakest offense in the ACC. Tyler Cameron looks to have a hold on the QB spot, but watch out for Kevin Sousa, who may have more athletic ability than Cameron. The running game is a patchwork unit as players from the defense and WR corps are being plugged in to take over. Speaking of the WR corps, it returns no one that had more than 23 receptions last year. The OL is weak as well, despite 3 starters back, and must improve on both run blocking and pass blocking. The defense will clearly be the strength of this tea. They return 23 of 30 lettermen to this side of the ball, but just 2 of 7 starters in their front 7. Still the young DL turned allot of heads in spring and the secondary has a shot at being one of the better in the ACC. The problem spot looks like the LB that is rated one of the worst in the ACC. Dave Clawson had successful stints at Richmond, Fordham and Bowling Green, but he really has his work cut out for him in his first year at Wake Forest. The offense will be the weakest in the ACC and while the defense will be improved it won’t help them in the standing. 10 starters back, a new head coach and a pretty difficult schedule will put the Deacons in last place of the ACC’s Atlantic Division this year and still about 2 years away from bowl contention. KEY TREND: 1-10 ATS in the second of BB road games.
ACC Coastal Dvision
The North Carolina Tar Heels have been very consistent in the last 6 years, grabbing either 8 0r 7 wins in each year. Now with 15 starters back and being in the 3 rd year of Larry Fedora’s systems, they are looking to take the next step and walk away with the Coastal Division in the ACC. Offensively this team excelled down the stretch last year, with the insertion of QB Marquise Williams, who threw for 1698 yards, with 15 TDs and just 6 INTs last year, while also leading the team in rushing with 536 yards. He is back, but may not be the best QB on the team as highly touted Mitch Trubisky will get a chance to take the job away from Williams. Leading WR Eric Ebron departs, but the next three from last year are all back and overall this is a talented and deep corps of WRs. Top RB TJ Logan is back and he leads another talented unit on the offensive side of the ball. 3 starters do return to the OL but overall this group has 3 sophomores and 1 freshman on it so it is a young group and is the weakest part of the offense. The defense for the Heels was decent last year, but has a chance to be so much better this year. The DL is young an inexperienced, but it does have some talent, and it will take a bit to gel. The LB corps is very deep and experienced as all 4 starters are back, with 3 of them being seniors. The LB corps is rated 2nd best in the ACC and 16th in the nation by Phil Steele. The secondary is loaded with potential, but is also a young group. The offense could be better than last year’s group and while most of the defense is young, they have one of the better LB Corps in the nation and will be an overall better defense than last year’s group. Road games vs Clemson and Miami will be tough, plus and out of conference road date with East Carolina will not be easy either. They do get Va Tech, Ga Tech and Pittsburgh at home and avoid FSU. I feel that the Heels can get over the hump and take the ACC’s Coastal Division this year. KEY TREND: 7-1-1 ATS as road favorites of 24 or less off BB spread losses.
The Miami Hurricanes were rolling along with a 7-0 record last year, but then the injury bug hit and they finished the year on a 2-4 slide, including a 36-9 blowout loss to Louisville in the bowl game. This year the Canes have 14 starters back and are primed to make a run at the Coastal Division in the ACC. The Canes averaged a solid 33.8 ppg last year, but they have a shot at being better this year, even with the loss of QB Stephen Morris. Redshirt freshman QB Kevin Olsen will take over and even though leading WR Allen Hurns is gone, they do have the nest 6 top pass catchers back, including Phillip Dorsett, who missed most of last year with a knee injury. Duke Johnson had 920 yards rushing last year before being lost in game 8 for the rest of the season and he is back, along with Dallas Crawford, who ran for 558 yards and 12 TDs last year. The OL is very solid with 3 starters back and is rated 2nd in the ACC and 17th in the nation. The defense for the Canes had many problems last year, but with all 3 units being ranked in the top 6 in the ACC by Phil Steele, this looks like a much improved group. The DL is the weakest unit on this side the ball, even with Anthony Chickillo back, who had 7.5 TFL last year. Leading tackler Denzel Perryman leads a deep and talented LB corps, while playmakers abound in a secondary that brings back 3 of 4 starters, including Tracy Howard, who led the team in INTs with 4. The Canes had a great year going last year until the loss of RB Duke Johnson. Now Johnson is healthy and so is WR Phillip Dorsett, which is huge for this team. QB Kevin Olsen is a freshman, but he was the #4 ranked QB coming out of high school, so I still see this as a powerful offense, while the defense will be much improved. The Cane do draw Louisville and FSU from the Atlantic and have road games vs VA Tech and Georgia Tech, but also do get FSU, North Carolina, Duke and Pittsburgh at home. Watch out for this team this year as they will be a challenger in the ACC Coastal Division. KEY TREND: 1-14 ATS off BB SU & ATS Wins.
The Virginia Tech Hokies have had a couple of mediocre seasons in a row. This year they have 54 letterman back and while they do have to replace their QB, this looks like it could be Frank Beamer's strongest squad that he has had in the last 3 years. The Hokies were very average on offense last year as they scored just 22.5 ppg, while having one of the worst rushing attacks in the nation. This year they lose QB Logan Thomas, but did pick up Texas Tech transfer QB Michael Brewer, who looks to be the one that will run the show this year. Brewer will have some weapons and the top 3 and 8 of the top 9 pass catchers are back from last year. This will be a solid WR corps this year, while the running game should improve with Trey Edmunds back, after he totaled 675 yards and 10 TDs last year. Helping the running game will be an OL that should improve, with 5 players back who had at least 6 starts last year. The offense will be improved for the Hokies, but still it will be the defense that carries this team. The Hokies did lose allot from it’s defense last year, but they just sem to reload on this side of the ball, so they will be formidable again. The DL is led by Luther Maddy, who had 13.5 total TFL last year. The DL overall as a unit looked very impressive in the spring and have been rated as the 14 th best in the nation by Phil Steele. The LB must replace all three starters, but there is still some experience in that group, while all 4 starters are back to a secondary that ranks tops in the nation by Phil Steele. Last year their top two DB’s were injured for much of the year and yet they still allowed just 173 ypg through the air. Both are back and that makes this unit very scary for opposing QBs. The offense for the Hokies will be improved over last year, but it may take a few games to get going. The defense is what will lead this team, with 27 of 32 lettermen back and probably the best secondary in the land. The Hokies get Miami and Georgia Tech at home, while their toughest games of the year will be at Ohio State, North Carolina and Pittsburgh. The rest of the schedule is more than manageable and should have them grabbing at least 8 wins during the regular season. KEY TREND: 10-3 ATS their last 13 games vs Miami.
The Pittsburgh Panthers are off a 7-6 year in their first season in the ACC, but a last second Bowl win over Bowling Green has them coming into 2014 with some momentum. Paul Chryst is in his 3rd year at the helm of Pittsburgh and looks as if some stability has been brought to the program. Could the Panthers be a surprise team this year? The Pittsburgh offense had many struggles last year, ranking 80th in points scored, but they may have gotten a glimpse into the future when Chad Voytik came in for Tom Savage in the bowl game and led them to the comeback win. He went 5-9 for 108 yards in that game. Voytik has the luxury of having Tyler Boyd back (85 catches, 1174 yards last year), along with 8 of the nest 9 top pass catchers from last year. The running game is solid with Conner & Bennett back, after the two combined for 1596 yards and 15 TDs last year. The OL was young and inexperienced last year and struggled, as they were 118th in the nation in sacks allowed, but with 4 starters back this year they should be a much tougher group. The Panthers allowed 27.2 ppg last year, but just 368 ypg, which was 34th in the nation last year. Replacing Aaron Donald and his 28.5 total TFL last year will be tough, but Chryst feels his line will do okay. The LB corps has 2 of three starters back and looks to be the strength of the defense. Ray Vinopal led the secondary with 3 INTs last year, but overall this group had just 8 INTs on the year, with 4 of them coming in one game. They look to be stronger this year. The offense has plenty of skill players and if Voytik can build on what he did in the bowl game then this offense will flourish this year. The DL is very weak, but it looks as if the back 7 are set to have a nice year. I feel this will be an improved defense overall. The Schedule is not really that tough for this team and they are improved overall. The Coastal Division is wide open this year and Pitt will take a step forward, but I don’t see them cracking the top 3 in the division. A Bowl game for sure though. KEY TREND: 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games vs the ACC on the road.
The Duke Blue Devils came out of nowhere last year to win the coastal division of the Atlantic Coast conference, but then took it on the chin with a 38 point loss to the Seminoles in the ACC title game Duke does have 14 starters back from that team, but im not sure they will have the same success as they did a year ago. Offensively, the Blue Devils averaged a solid 32.8 ppg last year, but still the play was very erratic from QB Anthony Boone, who had 13 TDs and 13 INTs on the year. He is back this year and has the luxury of returning WR Jamison Crowder, who smashed the Duke record books last year, catching 108 passes for 1360 yards and 8 TDs. Over all this is a deep WR corps as 5 of the top 6 pass catchers all return from last year. The running game was very good last year but just 1 of their top 3 backs return, so they should dip from the 170 ypg they averaged on the ground last year. The OL has 3 starters back, including OG Laken Tomlinson, who is on the first team All-ACC list. The defense was not all that good last year, allowing 26.6 ppg on the year. The secondary for this team was solid last year, and returns 2 of 4 starters to that group this year, but it is the LB corps led, by Kelby Brown and David Helton, who combined for 247 tacks and 13 TFL last year, that is clearly the strength of this defense. The DL will be the weak link here, with just 1 starter back and not much depth. Special teams is a strength of this team and is rated 2nd best in the ACC and 3rd best in the nation by Mr. Steele. The Blue Devils had a very nice season a year ago, but still the defense wasn’t all that great and the QB play was erratic at best. They just caught some breaks at the right time. That doesn’t usually happen two years in a row. The offense is not a 30 ppg unit and if the DL doesn’t shape up then I could see them allowing at least 28 ppg this year. The Coastal Division is also much stronger this year and Duke won’t sneak up on anyone this time around. They should make another bowl game this year, but that’s about it. KEY TREND: 2-10 ATS as road dogs of 4 or more after scoring 35 or more points.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have reached a bowl game for 17 straight year now and have finished the year at .500 or better for 19 straight years, but they come in to this season having lost a ton on offense, which means that both of those streaks may be in jeopardy in 2014. The Yellow Jackets run the Triple Option on offense and it has resulted in 34+ ppg in each of the last 3 years, but hitting that number this year may be tough, as Georgia Tech loses QB Vad Lee, their top two RBs from last year and 3 of 5 from the OL. Justin Thomas looks to take over at QB and may be the fastest player that Johnson has coached, but still he s having trouble with the reads in this offense. Zack Laskey should take over at on back position after running for 485 yards and 7 TDs last year. The Jackets don’t throw all that offense and no WR returns that had more than 21 catches last year. The OL loses 117 starts from last year, but will still be a solid group. The defense allowed just 22.8 ppg last year and with just 4 players back they are not likely to duplicate that feat. The DL is the strength of this unit and will be led by Adam Gotsis, who had 5.5 sacks and 9 TFL last year. The Back 7 for the Jackets will take its limps this year, with both the LB and secondary units rated among the worst in the ACC. I don’t feel that the Jackets have bowl caliber talent this year, but the schedule may allow them to sneak into one. They are weaker on both sides of the ball this year, but also their triple option does give teams fit with short prep time and that may be good enough for a win they are not expected to get. I will call for a 6 win season, but barely. KEY TREND: 8-2 ATS before a game vs the North Carolina Tar Heels.
The Virginia Cavaliers went to a bowl game in 2011, but have since gone 6-18 the last two years, despite the fact that they have had some solid recruiting classes. This year they have had a solid one again and if Mike London doesn’t produce then he may be looking for a new job real soon. The Cavaliers ranked 109th in scoring last year, putting up 19.8 ppg, and if they hope to move forward then offensive improvement is a must. David Watford struggled at the QB spot last year, so it looks as if Greyson Lambert will take over this year. Lambert had a nice spring and is a definite upgrade over Watford. The top 2 WR’s are gone from last year, but 5 players return that caught at last 23 passes last year and 6 players are back that had at least 125 yards receiving, so there is experiences with this group. Kevin Parks had 1031 yards and 11 TD’s on the ground last year and leads a deep stable of RB’s, but the OL looks to be the weakest link of the offense, even with 3 starters back. The defense has struggled the last few years, but with 9 starters back and two huge recruits, this is the best defense that the Cavs have had in a while. DL Andrew Brown and DB Quin Blanding were both rated in the top 3 at their postions in high school last year and will both help this team right away. Brown should step in and be a starter right from the get go, Quin will work his way in as the secondary is already set with all 4 starters back. The LB corps also returns all 4 starters and will be a much improved group over last year. The Cavaliers need to start turning things around or it will be adios Mike London. The offense will be improved over last year, with 8 starters back, a new QB and very solid skill players, but still the offense will not win games for this team. It will be their defense that will, with 27 letterman back on this side of the ball, to go along with 2 of the best defensive recruits in the nation. The Schedule is very difficult for the Cavs and though they will be vastly improved, it may not show up in the standings. Hard to see more than 3 wins from them this year. KEY TREND: 0-6 ATS after playing Georgia Tech
In the end I have Florida State beating North Carolina in the ACC Title game.