Inside The Curl said:
Sleep how does one handicap for turnovers? They're random, (except when they're not like the Baylor QB last night throwing the ball directly to a Boise player with no Baylor reciever within 15 yards). If one can in fact handicap for turnovers, how do you KNOW when they will occur and how the will affect scoring? After many years of watching this 5hit show I don't believe a handicapper can accurately predict turnovers and their subsequent effect. I think it's just good guesswork and/or hunches, and that really is the best a handicapper can do....make a good guess. In any event, good food for thought.
Handicapping turnovers isnt really all that hard.....Knowing the teams and actually doing the work helps...Take a team like BYU....They are digging and clawing for fumbles in like every game...The season stats show just how good they are at getting them....Plenty of teams that turn teams over, plus teams the turn it over, would put a capper to feel turnovers will be likely.....Now they trick is knowing what spot of the field they occur....I cant do that, but if you have some good redzone offense and bad redzone defenses, you would lean to getting it into the endzone before they fumble like the Indiana player just did.....It's the one part of handicapping that is the hardest and often it decides games and kills us bettors....It's tough, but the numbers are out there for us to dig up...I agree with ya with random, but with some teams, it can be very predictable....Esp in basketball....A team that is terrible at turning over the ball 20+ times and game, well now you have to factor that and the team they are playing...etc...its tough.