Another interesting and amazing week of college football is now in the books. Best game of the weekend was Notre Dame-Florida State. Whether you are a fan of either team or not. This was just a fun game to watch. In other games, the SEC had 3 double digit favorites win AND cover - LSU, Mississippi, and Alabama. All three played at home, so I'm not ready to jump on a bunch of double digit road favorites just yet. I know I keep wanting to bet against Ole Miss and yet they keep winning and covering. In the Big 12, we saw the two big giants, Oklahoma and Baylor, both go down to defeat. The Sooners and Bears both have byes this week. Meanwhile, in the Pac 12, the Oregon Ducks might finally be asserting themselves. It's taken awhile, but they're getting it done. They have a tricky game at Cal this week. The Oregon D will give up some points, so I'm not ready to lay 17.5 points on the road favorite here. In the Big 10, the favorites definitely set themselves apart this weekend. Michigan State and Ohio State both produced easy wins. One Big 10 team that you don't want to sleep on is Nebraska. I am thinking there's still a ton of value in this team. They are quietly having a very good season.
Looking ahead, I see some tough lines this week. I really see lines that I want to wait on too. I have a feeling that lines are going to get jerked around this week and will really move on game day, so be careful. Some that figure into this category for me are:
USC -1.5 at Utah. My guess is that the pros will be looking to the home dog here, but at a higher number. I wouldn't be surprised to see this line go higher this week (the publice will go big on USC), which will be the opportunity to play Utah. I will be looking to fade USC as the season wears on due to a lack of depth created by the NCAA sanctions a couple of years ago. No player wakes up in the morning feeling like a million bucks at this time of the year, and the little nicks and bruises do take their toll as well. Will be tough on teams that lack depth. To me, the value is on the home dog. Wouldn't be surprised to see Utah win this game outright. Might play the ML at better odds later this week.
Mississippi State -13.5 at Kentucky I expect the public to go big on the new #1. The Bulldogs are an amazing story and I congratulate them on their success. But Kentucky is an improving team, and you know the Wildcats will be fired up to play the Dogs at home. Just a gut feel here, but laying double digits on the road favorite here could spell trouble. I also expect this line to go up as the week goes on and this could give the Kentucky bettors their opportunity. I see State winning somewhere around a 38-27 type score.
If there is a double digit favorite I am looking at playing this week, it's Kansas State. Bill Snyder is a cover machine at home, plus Texas isn't really that good. It's going to be a long year in Austin. K-State is coming off the win at Oklahoma, but Coach Snyder isn't one of those guys who lets his team get too high or too low. This is a very workman-like team and the Cats will take care of business on Saturday. 35-14 Cats.
Does Will Muschamp last the season at Florida?
Any thoughts on LSU-Ole Miss? Is this another one where the pros look to the home dog, but at a better number? Will the number get better for the LSU side this week? With the line at 3, this game is a pass for now.
I can't figure out Missouri. Two weeks ago, they were shutout at home by Georgia. Last Saturday, they scored TD's on a kick off return, a punt return, an interception and a fumble. They scored 42 points on 119 yards of offense. And this week they have opened up as a 20.5 point favorite at home to Vandy. They lost at home to Indiana (Indiana?), then they went to South Carolina and won. At the moment, seems the value is on the dog. Missouri will either lay an egg and lose by 10 or they will win by 5 TDs.
West Virginia took down Baylor, and now they open as a 2.5 point underdog at Oklahoma State? What's up with that? First, this is a revenge game for OSU. Plus, the Pokes will want to bounce back from the beat down handed to them by TCU (who wanted to bounce back off that Baylor game). West Virginia may have their heads in the clouds a bit too. Plus, 18 penalties on Baylor? No way that the Mountaineers get that kind of help from the refs on the road. I'm inclined to think the value here is on the home team. I'm not looking for this line to move this week.
For those interested, you can hear me on The Sports Shelf radio show on Wednesday night at 7:45pm ET.
That's a wrap for now. As always, comments are welcome.