We have now added below a detailed supporting WU for our Under betting attack strategy and the Under picks on U Conn at USF, contained in our forum post a few hours ago.
Support for our Under betting attack strategy and Under pick in U Conn at USF
In a nutshell, what we like most about the Under in this game is the strong tendency of games in this series to be played close, low scoring and boring. More specifically, The Huskies and Bulls have met every year since 2005 and each of the former Big East rivals’ last seven meetings has been decided by seven points or fewer. But more significantly for this pick, the last four between them have all been solid Unders, averaging just 26 total ppg, with none of the four > 35 total points, and the other 3 featuring just 26, 23 and 19 total points.
Following is some relevant background info for both teams. Very little went right for South Florida in its first season under then-rookie coach Willie Taggart, with one of the few exceptions being how it played at the start of its conference schedule. Tonite the Bulls hope to win their American Athletic Conference opener for the second straight season when they host Connecticut. South Florida went 2-10 in 2013 – the worst campaign in its 17-year football history – but managed to defeat Cincinnati and the Huskies to begin league play last October, then won 13-10 at U Conn for its other win. The Bulls did not score an offensive touchdown in either victory and have only tallied one in each of their last two losses, both at home, first to Maryland and LW to NC State since a season-opening win over FCS "cupcake" Western Carolina. And their offense was particularly pathetic in that loss LW to NC state, where they scored just 17 points, made just 8 FDs, and were 2-10 on third downs, not surprising given that they gained just 159 TYs, including a measly 70 YR on 2.6 ypc and a pathetic 89 YP, with their two QBs (take your pick) a brutal 5-20 combined with two INTs. The USF Bulls have played eight freshmen this season, and In last weekend’s 49-17 loss to North Carolina State, freshman wide receiver Ryeshene Bronson made the most of his chance (with leading USF’s leading returning WR Andre Davis, who led South Florida with 49 catches and 735 yards last season, missing that game with a bruised sternum suffered against Western Carolina), grabbing two catches for 80 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown reception early in the first quarter. Davis is OUT indefinitely with that injury, and will miss tonite’s game.
Connecticut also opened with 3 home games, including a win over an FCS “cupcake,” and two losses to legit FBS foes BYU and Boise, although Huskies were able to frustrate undefeated Brigham Young in their opener and played Boise State tight through three-plus quarters last Saturday, with the 17 point deficit consisting of 14 points scored on defensive TOs by Boise (a 31 yard FR and a 50 yard pick six). First-year coach Bob Diaco was pleased with his defense in that loss last week to Boise State, as it held the Broncos’ offense 245 yards below its season average in total offense and limited Broncos’ running back Jay Ajayi 113 yards under his season rushing average. "The defense, playing basically the same system they played in week one, looked nothing like it looked in week one. I'm proud of the way that they played today," Diaco said. Chandler Whitmer became the eighth player in program history to surpass 4,000 passing yards after throwing for a season-high 209 last week. Fortunately for him (but not for his team), he does not get assessed a -50 yards in the record books for the “back-breaker” that he “completed” to a Boise defender for a 50 yard “pick six” late in the 4Q.
So based on the above support, we’ll take the game Under at 43 or higher, buying up to 44 at -120 odds if your total is 43.5, but as indicated in our picks above, our strongest Under play on this game is UCF Under 23 points on their team total.