Hopefully the Pirates will fare better than "others" did and most of our late steam/leans help out, and here's Wednesday. I think I may feel better about a free play, or two, or three, tomorrow, even if the Pirates lose and there's more #threads :)
960 NYM1.5 (-135) 5Dimes vs 959 STL |
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Analysis: Let's not forget about Niese, here. He's quietly compiled a 1.17 WHIP over three starts and faced the Braves, Angels, and Reds. And with the total coming off off the key # of 7, there is just that much more value to the home team, the ninth at bat, and the +1.5 runs. Wacha is great, don't get me wrong. But, the kid is still only 22 and on a pitch count at times. He's only pitched through the 7th inning once this season, and honestly right now the Cardinals bullpen is far worse than the Mets. In the last week their ERA out of the pen is 5.17, and not much better than that over the course of the season in road games. Let's also not forget that St. Louis is hitting .180 this YEAR against left handed pitchers, which Niese obviously is. He tends to keep the ball on the ground. Two of his three starts were one-run games, and the one that wasn't (a 6-0 loss to Atlanta) was a game he left trailing 1-0. So, I fully expect him to battle Wacha til the end. If I had my druthers (I do, actually) I would put half this on the ML. The Mets have won five of the last eight, while St. Louis has lost four of seven. By no means saying the Mets are a better team, but right now, on the road, St. Louis shouldn't be -145 or whatever and Niese is clearly being overlooked.
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We usually (always) wait for lineups on day games during the week. Certain teams (Atlanta being one of them) have tons of options and do use them. Cardinals would be in that category as well, and of course with day games that does effect the bullpen from the night before perhaps more than usual. Anyways.
Miami-Atlanta: I faded Harang last time out against the Mets and the guy throws another gem, giving up zero hits through seven innings. So, why didn't he continue to pitch the game? Because he already had thrown 121 pitches. He still IS a flyball pitcher and one of these days is gonna get lit. Is it after three straight 100+ pitch games and against a team that's collectively done well against him? Don't know, but I do know it's the Fish in some form or fashion unless the Tuesday night game throws a wrench into the plan.
Arizona-Cubs: I have said for a week the D-Backs aren't bettable and I meant it. Unless and until they put something together, I cannot touch even Miley, although he is a better bet on the road. Since Montero is NOT catching Tuesday night one could almost assume he will on Wednesday, and with Miley being a decent (better than decent) hitting pitcher I could consider the over. Gonna be chilly and slight wind in, so we'll see if that doesn't bring the total out a little lower.
Giants-Rockies: Interesting the respect they give Cain after the way the Rockies had been hitting, or the disrespect they gave Chatwood may be a better way to look at it. Chatwood who doesn't walk many and whom the Giants just beat in San Francisco recently, so you know where I'd go here. Cains' been solid, but again, the Giants have also lost all four of his starts, mainly because he's getting zero run support. So, in a day game with perhaps starters resting, maybe 10 is too many runs, and I do think it goes to 9.5 at some point. Tulowitzki hammers Cain, so we do need to know if he's playing, and with the Rockies shaky pen, we need to factor in Tuesday as well.
Reds-Pirates: I wanted to fade Simon early on simply because he's a 32 year old relief pitcher turned starter, but that would have been the wrong thing to do. He's been great. However, now two 100+ pitch games for him, so there's a certain level of mistrust as to whether he can keep that up, and with the Reds pen, that becomes even more important. With Morton you usually know what you're going to get game in and game out, and it's not usually something I want to put my money on. Certainly need to see the lineups and check the weather, but most of the Reds have hit him pretty well. Chilly with a slight helping breeze, so perhaps F5 under here would work. I do think it eventually goes over, and if the total does come off of 7.5 it's probably worth a marble.
Cardinals-Mets: Fairly cheap price for Wacha, one would think, but is it not fair to assume that Niese at home isn't worth +125, or at least the RL? Let's consider that the Cardinals have lost both of Wacha's road starts, and that Niese has a WHIP of 1.11. So, perhaps we take a hard look at the under and trust Niese to go 7 innings and keep the Mets pen out of if for as long as possible. FWIW the Cardinals bullpen has been terrible of late, so perhaps under here, since there' going to be a stiff wind blowing either slightly in from left or at the very least a cross wind. First 5 under for sure, IMO.
Padres-Brewers: First thing I thought about here was what if this game had been played two weeks ago when the Brewers were about 20-1 or whatever. There is no doubt Lohse would be a prohibitive favorite, but at -135 he's really not. Lohse pretty much owns Cabrerra and Seth Smith, so perhaps it is just that simple. Ross has been much better his last two starts after a couple of shaky early ones, and he does tend to keep the ball in the park. Weather will be plenty cold enough for the roof to be closed, so I lean under. If I lean under, then I would take the Padres RL if you made me.
Dodgers-Phillies: It might be a cold day in Hell before I bet on the Dodgers again, meaning they'll probably pound the crap out of Hamels. Always tough to not fade someone coming off the DL (Hamels) but I wouldn't think of laying -175, personally. The fact that you've got two pretty decent hitting pitchers and two potentially decent hitting lineups and two potentially terrible bullpens, I'd lean over here. But, as well as Grienke has been pitching, it'd take something for the Phillies to get there's here, so perhaps Dodger 1.5 MIGHT work.
Texas-Oakland: How do you fade Sonnry Gray? Easily. Houston pounded him last week and he's thrown four game, three of them over 100+ pitches and the fourth a 98 pitch outing. Add that to the fact that he's faced Seattle twice (who isn't hitting anyone). Perez has a WHIP of 1.03 but he too has had several high pitch games in a row. Either they both keep it going or one of them falls apart. Texas is certainly worth a RL play here, and I think even tho the ball carries better during the day that this game stays under, again, lineups pending.
Houston-Seattle: I do not know why this total is only 8. Must be because neither team has been hitting, because it has nothing to do with the starters whatsoever. How anyone can make Chris Young -170 is simply beyond my comprehension. With that in mind it's the Houston RL, Houston, and/or over. Seattle's pen hasn't been very good lately at all, either.
Baltimore-Toronto: Almost interesting that they don't know what to do with this game, either, so let's put it out at -110 and let the market decide. Well. McGowan shut down the Orioles in Baltimore, but gave up tons of flyball outs and was hammered in his other two starts, so logic may dictate that the Orioles are the play. Tillman has actually looked quite sharp in all of his starts, but he was over 120+ pitches in his last game, and that IS a red flag for me. Perhaps F5 under and somehow the Jays win a high scoring game?
Cleveland-Kansas City: Almost feels to me like both teams seasons' are over. Not that they are, just when I look at them I wonder where the motivation comes from. They both always seem to regress year after year. Vargas has been almost unhittable this season, but that's in two games against the Twins, and again, four straight 100+ pitch games already. Swisher has owned him, but that's about it. After Masterson shut down the A's he probably became the most over priced starter in baseball for a couple of starts, then bounced back to shut down Toronto, but then again Toronto hadn't been hitting. I think the Royals win this game, if for no other reason Masterson can't hold runners and the Royals will run.
Detroit-Chicago: Ask yourself this, is Drew Smyly really worth -180 considering the Tigers bullpen, and based on the fact that he hasn't thrown more than three innings yet this season? I know Andre Rienzo was marginal at best last year in ten starts, but I do think I'd take my chances with the White Sox bullpen and the RL, which based on the first line move down (vig) in the total would be the only way to go here.
Twins-Rays: I am done trying to think that Pelfrey has one more good start in his career. Odorizzi pitched well in his first start, at home, against Texas, and the Twins haven't seen him. But, there's a reason he's not with the Royals anymore, and he CAN have some control issues. This could be the rare "over" in the Trop, especially if the Twins need much pen on Tuesday. Obviously we don't expect the Rays and Price to need much. At 8 I might take my chances here.
Boston-New York: So many of these games are decided on emotion and carry-over from the previous game/series, that I wouldn't venture to guess on this one. My initial lean would be Yankees and over, since Lackey was just hit by the Yankees and then hit hard by Baltimore. If he hadn't had the "year" he had in 2013 he may not even be favored here.
Angels-Nationals: I do like to take the Angels against LHP, but Gio has been a freak at home. However, he can give up the long ball and not always able to induce the DP like you would hope. Weaver's having a nice bounce back year, but he too is a flyball pitcher, and gave up four bombs to the Astros in one game, so the meltdown is possible at any time. I might have given a thought to the over, but simply because it's 7. One look at the weather said "no thank you" to that, so if you made me I guess I trust Gio and the Nats pen a little more, being at home. But, as I type the Angels and Skaggs, who we recommended, are already up 3-0 so we'll see about bullpens here for sure.