For what it's worth, our winning streak is over. For six consecutive days we made money, but yesterday we had to give some back. We knew it would happen, sooner rather than later. No one wins all the time. We placed a total of fnine wagers yesterday ast night, and only cashed three of them, but at lest they were all 2 unit wagers, to finish a -2.50 units for the day, and bring our season total down to ++39.46 units. Oh well, we can't really complain too much. May's been a good month for us, so far. We started the month at +13.95 units, and today we're almost at +40 units.
We bet 1 units on the TB 1st 5 ML and another on the full game TB ML - The Ray gave Odorizzi single runs in the 2nd and the 4th, but each time he gave them right back in the bottom of the inning. It was 2-2 after 5, giving us a push, but the Twins got 3 in the 8th off the TB pen, giving us our first loss of the day.
We bet 2 units on the WASH 1st 5 RL - Stephen Strasburg was superb (7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 15 Ks) WASH gave him a single run in the 2nd and he nursed it through 5. WASH led 1-0 after 5. Richard scatter 10 hits but still had a QS , only allowing 3 runs. He was OK but Strasburg was great!
We bet 2 units on the ARIZ 1st 5 RL, and another 2 units on the ARIZ full game RL - This was the game that killed us. The line looked too good to be true. With Greinke on the hill, the line should have been a whole lot more expensive than it was. We should have smelled a trap and at least cut our units back to one each, but instead we went all in sand got our head handed to us. Greinke wasn't sharp and it was 3-0 MIL after 5 and ended up 6-1 MIL, and we were down 4 units.
We bet 1 unit on the White Sox 1st 5 ML and another on the White Sox full game ML. I still can't believe that to Sox couldn't hit Buck Farmer! Patheitc! We can't blame Derek Hollard, he has a QS, but we lost 2 more units
Finally, we bet 2 unit on the HTN 1st 5 RL, and another two on the full game HTN RL - Keuchel threw another quality start and the HTN pen did their job superbly. It was 4-1 after 5 and finished 5-2. Thank God!.
We don't regret betting on Grieke. We've cashed a lot of tickets with him this season, and even Kershaw gets beat once in a while..
On to today's games, and hopefully another streak. We'll post as we finalize. Here's the first one:
SEA @ BOS
Starting Pitchers
Christian Bergman
This season, Bergman's has made one appearance out of the bullpen, and three starts. He's 1-2, with one quality start, and that's one more than I expected. He's given up more hits (24) than innings pitched (20), and he's walked 6. That's 30 base runners in 20 innings, which explains the 1.44 WHIP. His 5.51 K/9 is well below average, as is his miserable 0.93 GB/FB ratio. Bergman also has a high 2.76 BB/9 rate and opponents are hitting .338 against him.
Bergman is not a good pitcher. Sometimes, the minimum requirement for being a major league pitcher is that you have a healthy throwing arm, and that's all Bergman has going for him. He doesn't have the stuff to intimidate hitters, and wit his 90 mph fastball, he doesn't strike out batters. That wouldn't be that big a deal if he was generating lots of GBs, but his 0.94 GB/FB rate and 37.2% GB rate hasn't gotten it done either.
Rick Porcello
Porcello, the reigning AL Cy Young award winner, has started ten games for the Red Sox. He's 3-5, with seven quality starts, including five of his last seven. On the season, he's allowed more hits (77) than innings pitched 62), but has fanned a batter per inning (62). Porcello has only walked 12, and his 62/12 K/BB ratio is very good. His advanced metrics are over 50 points lower than his 4.35 ERA! His .354 BABIP, which is almost 50 points highere than his career .808, tells me that Porcello has been the victim of some bad luck on batted balls in play. However, opponents are hitting .295 against him, so he is giving up some hits.
Porcello has essentially been the same guy for the last three years with xFIPs of 3.68, 3.72, and 3.89, and SIERAs totals of 3.88, 3.73 and 3.78, and those numbers are right in line with his numbers this season. . He wasn’t as bad as his 2015 4.92 ERA and not as good as his 2016 ERA of 3.16 either. If you're expecting a repeat of last season. don't. Porcello's not that good. However, if you're looking for 15 Ws and a mid 3 ERA with solid metrics, Porcello's your guy.
Pocello's pretty good, and Bergman sucks.
Edge - BOS
Bullpens
The BOS bullpen is excellent, and well rested after Johnson's CG yesterday. . The SEA bullpen is lousy.
Edge - BOS big
Offense
These offenses are actually both about league average, and very evenly matched
Edge - BOS slight
Defense
Edge -- SEA
Home / Road Record
SEA is 8-20 on he road v 13-9 at home
BOS is 17-9 at home v 10-12 on tthe road
Edge - BOS big
Conclusion: BOS has a huge edge in the bullpen, and they have the slightly better offense. BOS is also a very good home team, while SEA is awfiul on the road. When we get to these two starting pitchers, Bergman's garbage. Yes, he has one quality start, and I'll be damned if I ca figure out how ge did that. The A's must have been playing a lineup of blind men. Porcello's been very consistent . He's not great, and he probably didn't deserve that Cy Young last season, but everything broke right for him. However, Porcello is solid and much better than Bergman. The Red Sox have all the edges here, and SEA has yet to score a run in this series. They may actuallly score today, but not enough. The Red Sox are the better team, and I'll take my chances fading Bergman.
PICK - BOS 1st 5 RL (-132 for 2 units) and full game RL ( +105 for 1 unit)
SD @ WASH
Starting Pitchers
Jhouly Chacin
Chacin has started ten games for the Padres this season, four at the pitcher friendly confines of Petco Park and six on the road at LAD, ATL, ARIZ, SF, CHI WS and NYM. The results couldn't be more disparate. At home, Chacin is 2-0 with a 0.70 WHIP and a 0.67 ?ERA in 27 innings with a .132 BAA and just 1 HR allowed. On the road, it's a totally different story. Chacin is 2-4 with a 2.09 WHIP and a 10.95 ERA in 26.1 innings with a .373 BAA and 7 HRs allowed.
On the season. Chacin has given up more hits (56) than innings pitched (53.1), with an additional 18 walks, which explains the 1.39 WHIP. His advanced metrics are over a rund and a half better than his 5.74 ERA. His .300 BABIP is a little higher than his career .288 mark, but a bigger factor might be his abnormally low 63.3% strand rate, which 1s 8.3% lower than his career 71.6% mark. Opponents are hitting .265 against him.
Chacin pitched for two teams last season, totaling 144 innings (115 as a starter) with less than stellar results. He posted a 6-8 record with a 1.44 WHIP, and a 4.81 ERA. His advanced metric, s a 4.28 SIERA and a 4.12 xFIP were pretty mediocre as well. Those 144 innings were only the 3rd time in his career that he actually threw that many. If you're looking for a bright side, Chacin threw all of his pitches harder last season, than in any season since 2012 when he pitched for the Rockies, and he's still only 30. Another plus is that he’s now pitching his home games at pitcher friendly Petco, and so far that has made a huge difference. There might also be hope in the fact that outside of a horrific June, Chacin actually pitched slightly better last season than his results indicated, especially in the 2nd half where his swinging strike rate increased by 40% over his first half, which explains why his WHIP dropped from a terrible 1.55 in the first half, to a more respectable 1.30 in the second.
Joe Ross
Ross has made four starts for WASH. He's 2-0, with two quality starts. In his last start, hisfirst game since being recalled from Triple-A Syracuse, Ross dominated SEA in a 10-1 win, allowing just 5 hits and 1 run over a career high-tying 8. After allowing a single to lead off the game, Ross set down the next 12 men he faced as his offense built him a comfortable lead. This season, he has allowed more hits (25) than innings pitched (23.2), along with 6 HRs. He doesn't walk many (4) and has an excellent 20/4 K/BB ratio. Opponents are hitting .272 against him.
Ross offers something most 23-year-old pitchers do not possess, reliability. His numbers looked very consistent in each of the past two years in the majors. Ross struggles against lefties due to a weak changeup and only two other offerings, a fastball and a slider. If he makes strides with his changeup then he could make the next step, but right now he's a middle of the rotation arm that has some upside potential. It is unlikely that he ever becomes an ace
Overall, Chacin is quite mediocre, and much worse on the road. Ross isn't great but he's still better than Chacin.
Edge -WASH
Bullpens
Everyone knows that the WASH bullpen sucks, although Glover got his 2nd save of the series yesterday. However, the Padres pen really is no better. Maybe even a little worse, but I wouldn't trust either one.
Edge - SWASH slight, maybe
Offenses
WASH is an offensive powerhouse, and SD has a woefully weak offense.
Edge - WASH big
Defense
Edge - WASH
Home / Road Records
SD is 9-19 on the road v 9-14 at home
WASH is 16-8 at home v 14-10 on the road
Edge - WASH
Conclusion: Both of these teams have bad bullpens, but WASH is loaded on offense, while SD has one of the worst offenses in the league. WASH also has the better dense and a good home record, while SD is a bad team., and even worse on the road. As for these two starting pitchers, Chacin is very mediocre, and much worse than that on the road. Ross isn't great, but he pitched very well in his last start, after being recalled, and he's not exact;y facing a "Murder's Row" SD offense. . I'll take Eoss and the Nats powerhouse offense, in a 1st 5 inning wager, thus avoiding the bullpen.
PICK - WASH 1st 5 RL (+100 for 1 unit)
BALT @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
Alec Asher
Asher has worked primarily out of the bullpen, and has started just two games for the Os. He's 1-2 with 1 quality start. He's allowed less hits (24) than innings pitched (29), with a solid 22/7 K/BB ratio. His advanced metrics are over a full run higher than his 2.92 ERA. That's because his .206 BABIP is 68 point lower than his career .274. That tells me Asher's been lucky on batted balls in play. Of course this season 29 innings is a very small sample size.
Asher spent his 1st 2 seasons with PHIL, shuffling between the minors and the parent club. He made 12 starts for the Phillies, before joining the Orioles this season. In his career, as a starter, Asher has produced a 1.30 WHIP and a 5.43 ERA over 63 innings. Hid advanced metrics,, a 4.81 FIP and a 5.24 xFIP are equally weak.
Lance McCullers
I'm very high on McCullers, I've bee riding him all season, and for the most part, he hasn't disappointed. He's made ten starts, and delivered eight good starts, seven quality starts, and his last one in which he only went 5 innings, but only gave up 1 hit and 0 runs. He has also had two subpar Starts. His advanced metrics are under 3.00, as is his 2.42 ERA. That tells me that he's actually pitching every bit as well as that ERA suggests. On the season, McCullers has allowed less hits (45 than innings pitched (59.1) , and his 65/17 K/BB ratio is outstanding3, as it his 9.86 K/9. Opponents are only hitting .207 against him.
In terms of stuff, McCullers has it all, velocity, movement, and separation in spades. Start with a 94 mph FB, and a devastating 84 mph curve that McCullers throws 40 times a game and it still gets whiffs 1 out of every 5 times. That curveball was responsible for 90 of his 106 Ks last season. For his 3rd pitch, he has a devastating split finger changeup that doesn't have good velocity gap, but fades and drops more than 4 inches more than his 4-seamer. McCullers needs better control, but the good news there is he reduced his walk rate from 13% to 11% in the second half while his strikeout rate soared to 35%. So far this season His BB rate in only 6.6%, paired with a 29.1% K rate. Additionally, late in last season, McCullers started throwing 2-seamers on the first pitch to develop enough confidence in it to throw it to the middle of the zone and let the movement take it to the corners. It's not as good as his 1st 3 pitches - yet, but if he develops the ability to command it. look out.
McCullers still has an occasional blowup, but they seem to be happening less and less often. If you bet on this guy every time, you'll make money. I have.
I don't trust Asher, and McCullers has been elite.
Edge - HTN
Bullpens
BALT has a decent pen, but HTN's is exceptionally good
Edge - HTN
Offense
Edge - HTN
Defense
Edge - BALT
Home Road Record
BALT is 10-14 on the road v 15-7 at home
HTN is 18-10 at home v 15-6 on the road
Edge - HTN
Conclusion : HTN has most of the edges in this game. They have the better bullpen, the better offense and they very good at home, while BALT is a poor road team. They also have the better starting pitcher. McCullers is having a great season. I don't trust Asher at all. I'm almost afraid of going to the well one more time with the Astros, but I've got to. Everything points to a HTN sweep.
PICK - HTN 1st 5 RL (-147 for 2 unit2) and full game RL (-105 for 2 units)
We're off to a BBQ - so no detailed write ups on these two
ATL @ SF
Starting Pitchers
Edge - SF
Bullpens
Edge - SF
Offenses
Edge - ATL
Defenses
Edge - SF
Home / Road Record
ATL is 11-14 on the road v 10-12 at home
SF is 12-11 at home v 9-19 on the road
Edge - SF
Conclusion: In thiis game SF has most of the edges. ATL has the better offense, pretty much by default, but SF has the better bullpen, the better starting pitcher, and is a better home team than ATL is a road team. Cueto is still avery good starting pitcher, at least that's what his WHIP and advanced metrics say. Dickey is well past him prime, with a very high WHIP and metrics both over 5
PICK - SF 1st 5 RL (-122 for 1 unit)
CHI C @ LAD
Starting Pitchers
Edge - LAD
Bullpens
Edge - LAD
Offenses
Edge - LAD
Defenses
Edge - LAD
Home / Road
CHI is 11-12 on the road v 14-11 at home
LA is 20-8 v 10-12
Edge - LAD
Conclusion: LA has all the edges here, the better bullpen, the better offense, the better defense and a solid home field advantage. They also have the best pitcher in baseball. However many of th eedges are small and Lester is a lefty. We all know how LA struggles v lefties. I still have to go with the best pitcher in baseball, and I expect a low scoring game
PICK - LAD 1st 5 ML (-155 for 1 unit) full game ML (-160 for 1 unit) 1st 5 Under 3.5 ((-115 for 1 unit) and full game Under 6.5 (+100 for 1 unit)