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Dave's MLB Friday - Free Play

Thread Starter Dave's MLB Friday - Free Play
Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 17293
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Let me clue you in on a big secret - the last two weeks have been unkind. So, I am not selling any big plays today, but if I were to it would be this one that I sent out to LT subscribers, complete with other leans (which actually have been great). So, I am obliged to tell you that if you STILL want my work, it's discounted (as it should be!) for the rest of May.

960 STL (-145) Pinnacle vs 959 SFG
Analysis: This is my one bet for the day, but I will give you thoughts as usual. Here we have an NL total going UP, or at least the vig. That's with what has been an anemic Giants offense and no, no Hunter Pence, against a rested Wacha and a bullpen that's been on the upswing. Moore threw 120 pitches last game and 108 in the game prior to that. So, pitching deep isn't a strong likelihood, and we don't trust their bullpen - so add that to the total going up and IMO it seems like the Cardinals will be the ones doing most of the scoring.
In other games:
Clearly the $ says to bet the Brewers RL this afternoon. I couldn't bet ON Butler, regardless, and if it'd been two weeks ago, I'd fire it.
There's a lot of people and money that says the Pirates are the right side. I wonder how much of that is from their thrashing of Washington last night - clearly a pass for me as I am not laying -120 on Trevor Williams. I do like the over, however.
I would consider taking the Miami RL simply because we fade LAD against LHP. Add to that the fact that the Fish saw Wood a fair bit when he was in Atlanta, so at that price it's probably worth a marble.
They really like Toronto and I can see why - Tillman has been horrid. But, as good as Sanchez has been, Baltimore beat him up good this season, so reluctantly the square over is doable.
I will not bet on the Tigers, even against Texas and Nick Martinez.
I don't understand the huge move to the Royals. Nor have I really researched since early this morning. I don't care who is or who isn't playing for either team, Karns and the Royals haven't made that quantum leap in my book to being a road favorite. They may win, and it probably takes a reasonable amount of money to move a "Royals on the road" line like that. So, when the Brewers win this afternoon throw the marble on KC, I suppose.
I like the White Sox. They're playing well, Cano is out and he had hit Quintana pretty well - Chicago probably has the better bullpen, and I never know what Miranda will bring. Clearly we generally know what we can expect from Quintana.
I do think the Mets kill the Angels. Bad travel spot, bad park for Nolasco and his fly balls -  and perhaps over because you tell me which bullpen you truly would trust with your money.

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From Deadspin:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind. 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

wilburs beard
Joined: 12/12/2015
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Bol today and Dave it will turn my friend. Have a great Weekend.

wilburs beard's last 30 days record in NHL ,Football ,NFL ,CFB ,Basketball ,NBA ,CBB ,NHL ,NFL ,CFB ,NBA ,CBB
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mason62
Joined: 08/25/2011
Posts: 10014
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Great read Dave... BOL...

deliveryman3
Joined: 02/26/2007
Posts: 27949
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bet em ml and rl before I saw this. glad i'm with ya

Bluto Blutarsky
Joined: 11/19/2014
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Thank you for posting Dave.

HANG IN THERE

spartan
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 19213
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Hope you're right on the Cards. On way to game. Good luck this weekend my friend.

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LApicks
Joined: 04/23/2017
Posts: 224
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NICE. GOOD LUCK

Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 17293
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

I truly appreciate the support, guys. Good luck and thank you.

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

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From Deadspin:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind. 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

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