For what it's worth, yesterday turned out to be a disappointing day. We only liked 3 games, and we only liked one a lot.
We really liked CLEV. They had everything going for them in this one, the much better pitching, starting and relieving, and a potent offense. What happened? Well, Carrasco did throw a quality start, but that potent CLEV offense managed just 2 hits and 1 runs off the very mediocre Ariel Miranda in 5 plus innings, and just 2 more hits and 0 runs off a bad SEA bullpen. Wekept waiting for the CLEV bats to come alive, but they never did. Kiss 2 units goodbye!
We sort of liked the NYM/WASH to stay under 4 (1st 5). That total was low, but with deGrom and Scherzer on the hill, it seemed quite possible. Both struggled and it was 3-2 WASH after 2, as we kissed another unit goodbye. Going into this game, with the way these two teams have been playing WASH certainly was the obvious and popular side. Too obvious and too popular. You all know what that means. We passed, but should hae taken a shot on NY.
We sort of liked PITT as well. MIA looked like it had most of the other edges, albeit small ones, bet we really liked Taillon, and haven't been overly impressed by Conley, so at +107 for the 1st 5 ML, PITT was the play. We didn't expect an 8 run 2nd but there it was 9-0 PITT after 2, and we finally cashed one.
For the day we finished -1.93 units, bringing our season total to +11.36 units.
On to today's card
LAA @ TEX
Starting Pitchers
Jesse Chavez
Chavez has started four games for the Angels, and been effective in three of them, with two quality starts. He missed a 3rd quality start by just 1 out. In those three starts,, he allowed 15 hits and just 3 runs in 18.2 innings, with 18 Ks and 7 BBs. Chavez's one bad outing was in TEX against these Rangers, who got to him for 5 hits (inclding 2 HRs) and 5 runs in 4.1 innings.
Chavez, a career journeyman, spent 2016 in Toronto and Los Angeles, appearing in 63 games exclusively as a reliever. However, over the past three seasons, he has started 47 games and has generally been effective, posting a 1.34 WHIP, and a 3.95 ERA over that 3 year span. His advanced metrics are slightly better than his ERA. This tells me that he can be an at least league-average starter when given the opportunity. Chavez should be a serviceable starter, particularly pitching his home games in a favorable park.
Yu Darvish
Darvish has made five starts this season. Three of the have been outstanding quality starts. In those three, he gave up 14 hits and 3 runs in 21 innings with 23 Ks and 6 BBs. In the other two, he gave up 7 hit and 8 rus (4 in each) over 11.2 innings with 8 Ks and 7 BBs. While he is currently averaging less than a strikeout per inning for the first time in his career, he's also throwing with more velocity (93.3 mph) than he has in any of his previous four seasons, so there's reason for optimism. The walks, however, could be a potential problem. So far rhis season, when Darvish has been good, he's been very good, and when he wasn't, he wasn't awful either.
Darvish went under the knife for TJ surgery back in 2014. He missed the latter third of that season, all of 2015, and the first half of 2016. Once fully recovered, Darvish picked up right where he left off, posting a 7-5 record in 17 starts (100.1 IP), a 1.12 WHIP and a 3.41 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 3.08 SIERA and a 3.19 XFIP, were equally outstanding. . His 11.84 K/9 and 2.78 BB/9 put him among the league's leaders in K/BB ratio, and most notably, his 93.3 mph average velocity was a career best.
Chaves is what he is and always has been. There's no real upside, but his floor is decent. On the other hand, Darvish has tremendous upside and shouls continue to improve.
Edge - TEX
BULLPENS
Edge - LAA
OFFENSES
Edge - TEX small
DEFENSE
LAA - slight
Home/Road
LAA are 4-8 on the road v 9-4 at home
TEX is 7-7 at home v 3-6 on the road
Edge - TEX
Conclusion: The Angels appear to have the better bullpen, not by a wide margin, but better. The Ranger seems to have the slightly better offense. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Chavez is a competent starting pitcher, who generally keeps his team in the game, but TEX hit him hard they first time they faced him. Darvish has the better stuff, and when he's right he can be unhittable.
PICK - TEX 1st 5 RL (-119 for 1 unit)
COL @ ARIZ
Starting Pitchers
Tyler Anderson
Anderson has started 5 games for the Rockies, posting a 1-3 record with no quality starts. In fact, he hasn't lasted 6 innings in any of his start, s and has allowed at least 4 runs in four of them, and 5 in two of them.
Anderson was never really seen as a likely rotation member, particularly at Coors. Last season, Anderson finished with a 5-6 record, a 1.29 WHIP and a and a 3.56 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 3.84 SIERA and a 3.64 xFIP, were also solid. He throws a f4-seamer, a sinker, and a cutter, all of which induce big ground ball rates (50.9%). The sinker was by far his worst g fastball. Anderson's most volatile pitch was a frequently-thrown changeup. When put in play, hitters managed a .303 BA, a .530 slugging percentage and a ,438 BABUP against it. The pitch was also his best strikeout offering (over 20%) even if it was hit hard. Anderson doesn't have a true While nreaking ball. He threw his curve only 23 times all season.
Nothing in his statistics scream regression, it would not be surprising if Anderson was less effective this season.
Zack Greinke
Coming of an uncharacteristically poor debut season with Arizona, Zack Greinke has rebounded with four solid starts in five outings this season. In each those four starts, Greinke has not allow more that 2 runs, and in three of them it was 1 run. His one bad start was against the Dodgers, who got to him for 5 runs on 10 hits and 3 walks over 5 innings. Since leaving the Dodgers to join the Diamondbacks, Greinke has been obliterated in hisf 4 starts against his former team, serving up a combined 16 earned runs in 22.2 innings.
Greinke had a disastrous debut in Arizona last season, after signing a monster (6-year, $206.5 million) deal. He started poorly (5.50 ERA in April) and never really got back to being vintage Greinke He posted a 4.37 ERA and 7.6 K/9 rate. Even worse, it just seemed like every time he got on any kind of a roll, it was followed by a start from hell. Greinke had 4 such starts of 7+ earned runs after not having a single one in the previous 2 years. In those 4 starts Greinke allowed 31 earned runs in 17 innings! He didn’t allow more than 4 ER in any of his other 22 starts, posting a 2.92 ERA in those, but those 4 miserable starts pretty much sealed Greinke's fate.
Greinke’s biggest issue was the long ball. He had a HR issue early in his career (1.3 HR/9 from 2004-06), but just a 0.7 HR/9 rate from 2007-15. Last season, his HR problem resurfaced again, rising to 1.3. Making matters even worse, 13 of the 23 HRs that he allowed came in those 4 starts from hell. So far this season he's only given up 2 HRs in his 24.2 innings. Last season, those 4 horrific starts, 2 before his injury, and 2 after it, destroyed Greinke's season. His history of good command numbers tell me that he has a good chance of rebounding, particularly as long as his HR rate stays around where it is right now .
BULLPENS
Offenses
The Dbacks are loaded, while the Rocckies, so far, are offensively challenged.
Edge - ARIZ
Defense
Edge - COL
Home/Raod
COL is 8-3 onthe road v 7-6 at home
ARIZ is 11-4 at home v 4-6 on the road.
Edge - ARUZ
Conclusion: The only edge COIL has here is in the bullpenand tht will only matter if the game is in doubt. ARIZ has a very pontent offense and COL is offensively challenged. When we look at these two starting pitchers, it looks like a complete mismatch. Greinke's been very good, and Anderson's been awful. ARIZ should tee off on Anderson, while Greinke keeps the offensively challenged Rockies in check. We're all in on the Dbacks
Pick - ARIZ 1st 5 RL (-110 for 2 units) and ARIZ ML (-136 for 2 units)
Unbelievable! The Nats lead 1-0 after 4, and can't get 3 lousy out inb the 5th. They also strand 6 runner, including 3 in scoring position and trail 3-2 after 5.
Fortunately, Ubaldo Jimenez was every bit as bad as er expected (7 runs allowed in 3.1 innings) as the Yankees roll
SEA @ CLEV
STARTING PITCHERS
Yovani Gallardo
In his last outing, Yovani Gallardo produced a quality start!!! As amazing as as that is, Gallardo held OAK to 4 hits and 1 run, over 6.1 innings, with 7 Ks and 1 BB. Gallardo had made three previous starts for the Mariners, with less than stellar results. He allowed 24 hits and 11 runs in 16 innings, with 9 Ks and 6 BBs. That's almost 2 baserunners per inning.
Gallardo was absolutely terrible for the Orioles last season, but that should come as no surprise to anyone, including the Os, who made the mistake of inserting him in their starting rotation. Gallardo posted a 6-8 record in 118 mostly bad innings. His WHIP was an ugly 1.58 and his ERA was an equally pathetic 5.42. His advanced metrics were equally dismal, a 5.22 xFIP and a 5.34 SIERA. His BB rate of 11.6% was only slightly worse that his 16.2% K rate. I never understood why the O's acquired him. I fully understand why they let him go, and I certainly don't understand why the Mariners (1) acquired him, and (2) put him in the starting rotation???. Coming off a rare good outing, he's prime fade material to me.
Danny Salazar
S o far this season, Salazar's produced a mixed bag, with two quality starts sandwiched around two less than stellar outings. In the two quality starts, v CHI WS and at MINN, he tossed 6 innings in each, allowing 11 hits and 2 runs, with 18 Ks and 4 BBs. In the other two, at TEX and at CHI WS, . he allowed 12 hits and 9 runs in 10.2 innings with 18 Ks and 7 BBs. Salazar has produced a stellar K rate (14.3 K/9), but it's been somewhat offset by his areer-worst 4.37 BB.
Last season, forearm tightness forced him to miss the 2nd half of September and limited him to just 3.0 innings in Cleveland's postseason run. Despite the troubles, Salazar still posted an 11-6 record with a 1.34 WHIP and a 3.87 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 3.27 SIERA and 2.46 xFIP, were even better. His production has been almost uniform over the last 3 seasons.
Salazar possesses an arsenal of swing-and-miss stuff, consisting largely of a mid-90s fastball and changeup. The change, in particular, is special. It was rated 3.0 runs better than average per every 100 thrown That was the best rating among qualifiers. The year before, Salazar finished second in the league, behind only Zack Greinke. Other than health, Salazar's control is the other potential problem. It can be erratic, to say the least. It's a credit to his raw ability that Salazar was able to post a sub-4.00 ERA last season, despite an atrocious 10.8% BB rate (4.14 BB/9). This season its 10.9% (4.37 BB/9)
There is no question as to who the better pitcher is here.
Edge - CLEV
BULLPENS
The Indians have one of the best bullpens in the game, while the Mariners have one of the wotst
Edge - CLEV Big!
OFFENSE
Both of these teams are very strong offensively
Edge - NONE
DEFENSE
Neither of these teams is good defnsively, but SEA is the better of the two
Edge - SEA
HOME/ROAD RECORD
SEA is 5-10 on the road v 6-3 at home
CLE is 4-6 at home v 8-4 on the road
EDGE - NONE
Conclusion: CLEV is a heavy favorite( -160) and deservedly so. They have the much better bullpen and the far superior starting pitcher. Of course they did lastr night as well, and we all know what happened then. I thinks the Tribe bounced back here in a big way. Gallardo pitched a good game in his last start. That doesn't happen very often. Gallardo pitching two in a row? Do you believe pigs can fly? I don't. Gallardo reverts to being Gallardo and CLEV rolls.
PICK - CLEV 1st 5 RL (-115 for 1 unit) and full game ML (-160 for 1 unit), and CLLEV RL (+123 for 1 unit) We're all in on the Tribe again.
BALT @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
Ubaldo Jimenez
I don't think much of Ubaldo Jimenez. I never have. This season he 1-0 with 1 quality start in his four outings. In his last start, he only lasted 3.1 innings v TB, allowing 3 runs on 3 hits (1 HR) and 5 BBs. At least h should be well rested. In the start before that, at CIN, Jimenez did toss 7.2 shutout innings, giving up 2 hits and 4 walks while striking out 3 in a 2-0 win. However, in the two starts before that Jimenez only went 4.1 innings in each and allowed 15 hits (3 HRs) and 10 runs with 3 BBs and 6 Ks. Overall, Jimenez has allowed 20 hits and 12 walks in his 19.2 innings. That explains the 1.63 WHIP and 5.95 ERA. His advanced metrics are every bit as bad .
Last season Jimenez finished an equally abysmal 8-12, with a 1.56 WHIP, a 5.44 ERA, a 4.75 SIERA and a 4.64 xFIP. Every so often, he'll surprise with agood outing, but there's e just not much to like about Ubaldo Jimennez.
Michael Pineda
I've never trusted Michael Pineda . He's just too damn streaky for my taste. He's off to a solid start this season. He's 2-1 with two quality starts in his 4 outings. After struggling in his first start at TB((3.2 IP, 8 H, 4 R), Pineda has allowed just 6 runs in his next 3 (19.2 IP). He threw back to back quality starts v TB and STL at Yankees Stadium (14,2 IP, 8 H, 3 R) with 17 Ks and 1 BB. In his last start, at PITT, Pineda allowed 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6 over 5 innings, but received no decision. After the Yankees came up with a f5-run 6th, it appeared as if Pineda had a great chance at his 3rd W, but the bullpen squandered the lead in the bottom of the inning. It's very early to draw any conclusions, but Pineda's two home starts have been superb, while he's struggled in his two road efforts. Over the last 3 seasons, he's been a little better at home, a1.18 WHIP v 1.26 on the road, a 4.04 ERA v a 4.14 ERA, and a .248 BAA v .271
Last season, Pineda did not pitch very well. He was 6-12, with a 1.23 WHIP and a and a 4.82 ERA. His advanced metics, a a 3.40 SIERA and a 3.30 xFIP, were almost a run and a half lover than his ERA. Those numbers combined weth his exceedingly high .339 BABIP (.300 career) tell me Pinenada had some bade luck last season.
Pineda has velocity (93-94 mph), a great slider. He also gets Ks and limits Bs. He also throws a splitter, which is at times unhittable and at other times just a hanger . Pinenda's main issue in his command, which comes and goes. As much promise as his strikeout and walk rates offer, his command, or lack of it, takes away. To quote Forest Gump, Pineda's "like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get".
BULLPENS
Both bullpens are well above average, although you wouldn't know is based on last night's performance, a 14-11 NY win, after trailing 9-3 at the end of 6. But NY appears a little stronger.
Edge - NYY small
Offenses
BALT has an above average offense, surprisingly, NY's been one of the best in baseball, and they haven't played any games in COL.
Edge - NYY
Defense
Home/Road
BALT is 6-4 on the road v 8-3 at home
'NY is 9-1 at home v 5-6 on the road
Edge - NYY
Conclusion: Thse two team are tied for 1st in the AL East. I still don't trust Michael Pineda, but I I refuse to bet on Ubaldo Jimenez. I think he sucks, and I'm amazed that the Os still have him in their rotation. They must be desperate! Every other edge leans in NY's favor, and statistically Piuneda is more likely to pitch a good game than Jimenez, and conversely Jimenez is more likely to get bombed than Pineda.
PICK - NYY RL 1st 5 innings (-118 for 1 unit)
NYM @ WASH
STARTING PITCHERS
Zack Wheeler
Wheeler has made four starts for the Mets this season, and while he has yet to produce q quality start, each one has shown improvement. In his first start, v MIA, Wheeler got lit up for 6 huts and 5 runs in just 4 innings, with 4 Ks and 1 BB. In his next start, at PHIL, he allowed 4hits and 3 runs in 5.2 innings with 4 more Ks and 1 more BB. In his third start, v MIA, Wheeler again allowed 4 hits, but just 1 run in 5 innings, with 7 Ks and 2 BBs. Finally, in his most recent start v WASH, he went 7 innings allowing 4 hits and 4 runs, qith 6 Ks and 2 Bs. Overall Wheeler has allowed 18 hit and 13 runs in 21.2 innings, with a 21/6 K/BB rate. He's been solid, but not spectacular.
Wheeler entered this season having missed the last two. After undergoing TJ surgery in the spring of 2015, Wheeler was slated to return during the 2016 season, but he ran into setbacks during the summer and ended the year having only made one rehab start. When Wheeler was last healthy in 2014, he used his 95 MPH fastball to generate both strikeouts (9.08 K/9) and grounders (54.0% GB%) in above-average numbers. Over his first four starts this season, his fastball was clocked at 94+ mph, with an 8.72 K/9, both close to where he was before, but his 45.9% GB rate was down about 8%
Stephen Strasburg
Strasburg is off to another great start this season. He's started four games and has produced four quality starts. He's gone 7 full in each one, and allowed 22 hits and 9 earned runs, with 29 Ks and 7 BBs in his 28 innings.
Strasburg missed time late last season with a flexor mass strain, but still posted a stellar 15-4 record with a 1.10 WHIP and a 3.60 ERA. His advcanced metrics ( a 3.18 SIERA and a 3.20 xFIP, were even better. That tells me Strasburg actually pitched even better than his 3.60 ERA says he did. Those same metrics are equally outstanding this season (both under 3.00).
Strasburg has been spectacular.
Edge - WASH
BULLPENS
So far this season, these are two really shaky bullpens.
Edge - NYM slight
OFFENSE
The WASH offense is probably a little overrated, coming off a series in COL in which they scored 42 runs in three games. The Mets are also probaly overrated , with 6 players already on the DL, and yesterday Yoenis Cespedes left the game after further injuring a balky hamstring,
Edge - WASG big!
DEFENSE
Edge - NYM small
HOME/ROAD RECORD
NYM 5-3 on the road v 4-10 at home
WASH is 6-43 at home v 10-3 on the road
Edge - NONE
Conclusion: Neither team has a bullpen worthy of wagering on, but WASH has a very good offense, and right now NY doesn't. When we get to the starting pitchers, Wheeler's been OK, but Strasburg has been elite. The Mets got to Schezer and pulled a shocker last night, I'm betting they don't get to Strasburg today.
PICK - WASH 1st 5 RL (-135 for 1 unit)