For what it's worth, yesterday was pretty much a wash. We ended up -0.05 iunits for the day and still +2.09 for the season.
My gut told me that it was a bad idea to bet on the Yankees, but the numbers screamed NY. After getting down 4-0 early, the Yanks got it to 4-3, and I thought that I still had a chance, but the vaunted Yankee pen wilted and so did our 1 unit play
We really liked Jon Lester last night, but the Reds got to him and killed our 1st 5 wager.
Finally 3 quick runs un the 1st doomed our WASH/NYM 1st 5 Under play
Fortunately, Tex (1st 5 RL and ML) and SF (1st 5 ML) all cashed to keep us basically even for the day
On to tonight's games.
CHI C @ CIN
STARTING PITCHERS
Jake Arrieta has started three games for the Cubs and they've all been solid. He ha yet to allow more than 3 ERs in any of his outings. He has prduced two quakity starts and missed a thrird by just one out. He also has 21 Ks to just 5 BBs in his 18.2 IP.
After a spectacular 2015 season in which he won 22 games, with 9.28 K/9, a 1.89 BB/9, and a 1.77 ERA, it was not likely that Arrieta would be able to duplicate that performance, and he didn't, The regression was real. While his WHIP remained solid at 1.08 and he continued to induce a healthy amount of soft contact, there was a step back in nearly every other regard, but was still very good. His strikeouts fell to 8.67 K/9 and his BB/9 increased to 3.47, the his highest as a Cub. His ERA was still very good, at 3.10. His ground ball rate, and is HR/FB ratio increased by about 4%. His velocity was down a touch, but probably not enough to be concerned over. Last season is closer to the pitcher that Jake Arrieta actually is, and he has continued to pitch at that level so far this season.
Cody rRed will make his first start of the season, after making four appearances out of the bullpen. Although he was never a top prospect, Reed pitched very well in the minors in both 2015 and 2016. That earned him a 10-start audition with the Reds last year, but that didn't go so well. His strikeout and walk numbers were respectable, but Reed allowed a lot of hard contact, including 12 homers in less than 50 innings. Right-handed batters hit him especially hard, because he has an arm slot that allows them to get good looks. Pitchers have little control over how often batted balls turn into hits, so some of Reed's struggles can be chalked up to bad luck. Reed's not as bad as his stall line looked last season, he's probably closer to a 4.36 ERA pitcher than the 7.36 ERA pitcher that he was last season. With a good fastball-slider combo, Reed has the potential to be even better than that.
EDGE - CHI C
BULLPENS
Last season, the Reds had by far the worst bullpen in baseball. So far this season, they have one of the better pen, and the Cubs haven't been as good. However, it was the Cubs pen that picked up the win and the save last night, and the Reds pen blew the save and got the loss. These two pens seem to be moving in opposite directions.
Edge - CIN
OFFENSE
Last season the Cubs were blowing teams out regularly. Not this year, but so far the Cubs are still hitting better the the Reds, but it's much closer.
Edge - CHI C
DEFENSE
Edge - CIN - slight
Conclusion: The Cubs aren't blowing teams out this season, but they are finding ways to win. The Reds got off to a fast start, but the Cubs finally passed them in the standings last night and I don't expect that to change. Arrieta's been solid this season, and as for Reed, I don't know what to expect, but I do know he's not in Arrieta's class.
PICK - CHI C 1st 5 RL (-114 for 2 units) and CHI C RL (-102 for 1 unit)
It was a wild one in CHI. Arrietta gave up a 3 run lead and trailed 4.3 after 1, but the Cubbies bats were/are on fire, and they covered the 1st 5 RL for us.
CLEV @ CHI WS
Starting Pitchers
Carlos Carrasco is off to another fine start this season. He started three games for the Indians, with two quality starts. He was just missed a third of an inning shy of another. He has not allowed more than 2 runs in any of his starts. He also has 19 Ks and 6 BBs in 19.1 IP.
The numbers say that Carlos Carrasco has pitched very well over the last 3 seasons. Since he joined the Indians' rotation for good in August of 2014, he's one of only four qualified pitchers (along with Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard) with at least a 25% K rate and a 50% GB rate, and a sub-7.5% BB rate. He is a dominant No. 2 starter, when healthy. He has a complete ’s arsenal with 3 well above-average pitches in his slider, curveball and changeup, and 5 pitches he throws at least 10% of the time. His breaking stuff dives and his fastball can sit in the mid-90s.
Carrasco’s biggest issue has been his health. He’s never reached 200 innings, and he only threw 146 innings last season. This raises questions about his durability, but it was freak injuries that shortened his 2016 season. He missed 48 games because of a hamstring injury he suffered running to cover to !B and a fractured bone in his right hand suffered when he was hit by a line drive. Right shoulder inflammation also cost him a couple of weeks late in 2015,
Carrasco was brilliant in 2015, and he may never be quite that good again. However, He was still very good in 2016, and is pitching very well right now. If he stays healthy, he should be very good again this season.
For His career, Mike Pelfrey is 65-91, with a 1.50 WHIP, and a 4.57 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 5.25 SIERA and a 5.04 xFIP, are even higher. He has a 5.09 K/0 rate and a 3.19 BB/9, which translates toa 1.58 K/BB (4.7%). He has also allowed 3.00 HT/9.
Pelfrey's pace is among the 10 slowest in the game. When he finally does throw the ball, Pelfrey will mostly throw either a decent sinker or an improving low-spin splitter toward the plate. It won't result in a strikeout, since Pelfrey had the worst strikeout rate in the game (4.24/9, 10.4%)minimum 100 innings. It might end up in a walk, since his walk rate (3.48 BB/9, 8.5%) was below average. Combine those two stats and you get the worst strikeout-minus-walk rate (1.22 K/BB, 1.9%) in the game. His ground ball rate (52.2%) is more okay than elite (15th-best).
Pelfrey is now 33, and he has absolutely no upside left.
BULLPENS
The Indians were projected to have a great bullpen, and so far they do. The White Sox were projected to have an average bullpen, but so far, they've been even better than the Indians.
Edge - CHI WS
OFFENSES
The Indians have an elite offense, while the White Sox are offensively challenged.
Edge - CLEV big
DEFENSE
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
0.2
|
16
|
White Sox
|
-1.7
|
22
|
EDGE - CLEV
Conclusion: Both teams appear to have excellent bullpens, and the Indians have the much better offense and defense. However the biggest discrepancy is at starting pitcher. Carlos Carrasco is great, and Mike Pelfrey is awful.
PICK - CLEV 1st 5 RL (1140 for 2 units) and CLEV RL (-127 for 2 units)
ATL @ PHIL
STARTING PITCHERS
Last 3 Calendar Yrs.
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Garcia - L
|
1.23
|
3.81
|
3.74
|
3.62
|
7.17
|
2.50
|
1.04
|
0.248
|
0.286
|
74.3%
|
Eickhoff - R
|
1.13
|
3.39
|
3.94
|
4.06
|
7.86
|
2.05
|
1.28
|
0.237
|
0.273
|
77.7%
|
Jaime Garcia has started three games for the Braves with mixed results. His first two, at MIA and at NYM, were less than stellar, but he finally produced a quality start v SD in his most recent outing. For the season, Garcia has allowed 18 hits and 10 runs (9 earned) in 17.1 innings, with 8 Ks aLast nd 7 BBs. The 8/7 K/BB rate is not encouragingn and neither are the 4 HRs (18.2% HR/FV).
Last season, with STL, Garcia finished with a 1.37 WHIP and a 4.67 ERA. His advanced metrics, 3.93 SIERA and a 3.77 xFIP were a little bettere but still very mediocre. After pitching admirably through April and May, he absolutely bombed from June onward. His 20.2% HR/FB rate pretty much destroyed his season.
Garcia shouldn't be anywhere near as bad as he was last year, but he also doesn't have much upside either. His strikeout and walk rates won't be overwhelming, they never have been, but hell sting generate a lot of GBs, 56% for his career.
Jerer Eickhoff is off to a sterling start this season. His first three outings have all resulted in quality starts. He's allowed 16 hits and 7 runs (6 earned) in 19.2 innings with 18 Ks and 6 BBs.
Last season, Eickhoff posted an 11-14 record with a 1.16 WHIP and a 3.65 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 3.82 SIERA and a 4.32 SIERA were a little higher but not awful. When Eickhoff started throwing his curve more than his slider late in the season, everything started to come together. More people started swinging at his curve and popping up his sinker, four-seam, and both breaking balls. Between a 50% ground ball rate on his sinker, a plus pop-up rate on his four-seam, and plus whiff rates on the breaking balls, he's got the arsenal that he needs to at least be above average. The high HR rates on his slider, sinker, and changeup were the problem, last season.
Moving from the slider (lots of homers) to the curves (fewer HRs) should help, but throwing more sinkers (more HRs) won't. If Eickhoff settles on four-seamers, curves, and sliders as the third option, he should be the best pitcher he can be.
Edge - PHIL
BULLPENS
Both bullpen are well below average.
Edge - NONE
OFFENSES
Both offenses are very mediocre
Edge - NONE
DEFENSE
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Braves
|
3.1
|
8
|
Phillies
|
2.2
|
13
|
Edge - ATL small
Conclusion: These teams are very evenly matched in most areas. However, PHIL has a definite edge at starting pitcher with Eikhoff over Garcia.
PICK - PHIL 1st 5 ML (-113 for 1 unit) and PHI: ML -117 for 1 unit)