Nice win for us on the over last night - not selling anything on this game, however here's my thoughts. We do have several nice CFB plays for Saturday and after last night's Northern Illinois win, we feel pretty confident. And there are basketball subs still available - off to a 5-2 NBA start.
So, what we know and what we don't:
The Cubs: We know what Hendricks did in the regular season. In Friday's game, at home, he shutout the Indians through 4.1 innings but my yellow flag is that it was an 82 pitch outing which is a lot for that many innings. It was also the first time the Indians had seen him, so although I don't expect Cleveland to tee off on him (that won't happen because at the first sign of trouble NO pitcher is going to throw one more pitch), I do expect both he and the Indians to regress a bit.
The bullpen: It's no secret that Chapman has thrown a lot of pitches, and honestly although he was finally yanked last night I'm not sure why he was in the game to begin with. Since he allowed a walk and a hit in his 20-pitch stint, he could be sliding a bit (I did read somewhere that his velocity was down) and that could also give Cleveland confidence against him. And, he does have two blown saves this post season. The rest of their pen has been average at best.
The intangibles: Maddon and Francona are both solid, but for all his accolades Maddon hasn't been in a World Series (let alone a game seven) and Francona has, and won twice. His record in both post-seasons with Boston was 11-3 and he's 10-3 this season. One more win makes it another 11-3.
The Indians: We know what Kluber has done, which is being essentially unhittable. I'd have thought the Cubs would have fared somewhat better seeing him the second time around, and I guess one run is better than none - and they did put the ball in play more than in Game One. He's going on one days' lest rest than Hendricks, which has to be a factor once adrenaline gives way. His pitch count (88/81) in those first two games wasn't high.
The bullpen: If you can take a silver lining from Game Six it's that Shaw and Miller didn't pitch, so given that the Indians bullpen has out performed Chicago's of late, one would (in spite of Chapman) have to give them an edge.
The intangibles: Kluber has been an underdog once more in this post season than he was during the entire regular season - and never at home. One has to think there's value to that. We can thank the American League AS victory for the Indians being at home, where they're 58-30 this season.
I'm not sure what Holbrook (HP umpire) brings to the table, other than an tendency for "unders" - he called a Texas/Toronto game which did see a ton of runs but I'm not sure there's relevance, or if there is I can't weigh it.
Bottom line: I don't see how this game sees many runs, especially early - so I like the under and the F5 under a bit better. If the Indians could have scripted a season, regardless of how we got to where we are - it would have been to have a game seven of the World Series at home. People tend to remember only what they saw last, which was the Cubs 9-3 win, compliments of an Indian miscue to start the ball rolling. I'll take Kluber and the Indians at home to win.
The final reason I am taking Cleveland is that when we took them in Game one I suggested that if they won we'd go back and take the Cubs to win the series, so full disclosure, personally it's house money for me.