Hi Winnibet,
Well done! Kudos are in order for an 8-3 evening. Keep it up.
On LAD/COL - I ;ile Anderson, but I'm not sure I want to bet against Hill. I did that early in the season and it cost me. I might consider Uner 10.5
On my radar - TOR - ATL - TB/BOS Under 9 - TEX and maybe SF and LAD/COL under
OK, now about that CRS feedback you asked for.
You use key statistic to determine what the spread in a game should be, and then compare that to what the spread actually is, and the bigger the variance, the better the bet. However, it has been my experience that the oddsmamkers don't usually make many mistakes in setting lines, so I suspect that many times, there's not that much variance. I think that your CRS is a very good starting point, but there are a lot of intangibles that statistics can't measure. I'll get to that in a minute. For now, the point is that there's more to handicapping than stats. That's sounds funny, coming from me, a true stat guy in baseball. However, in the NFL, I rely a lot more on matchups and situational handicapping.
Your Key Stats
SRS = Margin of Victory + Strength of Schedule. Strength of Schedule is legitimate as long as we remember that you can only beat the teams that are on your schedule, so a weak schedule doesn't necessarily mean a weak team. I've made that mistake before. My real question here is about using Margin of Victory. A blowout, say 45-3 for example, either way, especially early in the season, can have a dramatic effect on a team's margin of victory. Late in the season, I often remove a team's best and worth game, but with only 16 games, that's tough to do, impossible early on. I don't know how you resolve that.
QB Rating
I presume that you are using the NFL passer rating formula. I don't think much of it. For example, it rewards the Alex Smiths of the NFL for safely dinking and dunking their way down the field. I prefer to use the Cold Hard Football Facts website stats in general, and their "Real QB Rating" Here's what they say:
"The current passer rating is just that, a measure of passing effectiveness. Real Quarterback Rating includes rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing TDs, fumbles and sacks to produce a new kind of rating that measures a quarterback’s overall performance with the ball, not just as a passer when he actually releases the ball (which is all that passer rating currently measures)."
Home Field
This is probably the one thing that you use, that I object to the most. The 3 point rule of thumb for home field is ridiculous. SD for example, is not worth 3 points at home. Nobody comes to their games. They have virtually no home field advantage. Giving SEA only 3 is equally crazy. Their home field is worth at least 4 or maybe even 5. And what about MIA, playing in that MIA heat in Sept can be brutal, just ask the Patriuots. They probably deserve more than 3 in Sept home games. Or playing in GB in December. My point is, that giving a team an automatic 3 doesn't make sense. I know that here at PG, Fezzik gave weekly power rankings and included a home field advantage if other than 3. I use that in my ratings, rather than an automatic 3.
One thing I can say with certainty is that looking at what you do, has made me go back and examine what I do.
1. I look at matchups - rushing game v rushing defense, passing game v passing defense. What will team A be able to do on offense v team B's defense, and what they won't be able to do. Lesson: If you can make a team 1 dimensional, you're well on your way to a win.
2. I look at the injuries, not just to the "name players" but lineman and special teams players, paying particular attention to cluster injuries (offensive line, for example). OL injuries can wreak havoc on a team's offense.
3. I look at special teams. Field position can have a huge impact on a game.
4. I am a situational handicapper. I look for spots with high motivation, or potential flat spots. For example in week 1, last season I was all over SF as a home dog v MINN. The SF players had been hearing all offseason and preseason about how incredibly bad they were going to be. Conversely, MINN was getting a lot of positive press about being a contender. The game was on prime time MNF, so everyone would be watching. MINN was clearly the much better team, and should have won handily, but I expected max effort from SF and thought they could win the game outright. SF played one of their best games of the season, and ambushed MINN. The following week, they reverted to the team we all expected them to be, and got trounced. My point is that, it was a situation that screamed SF, even if the stats didn't.
5. I do look at line movement and where the money's going, but sometimes, that's hard to ascertain because the big syndicates don't show their true hand until very late..
6. I listen to other opinions, but only if they tell me why. I don't care who X,Y or Z is picking. I want to know the reasoning behind the pick, so I can decide for myself if that reasoning is sound.
Then I try and put everything together and make a hopefully educated guess at what will happen in the game. I try to remember that the point spread is the great equalizer. However, I also try not to get too wrapped up in the spread. Somewhere between 84-86% of the time, the winner will cover the spread.
I don't know if any of this will be at all helpful, but that's my input, for what it's worth. I think your CRS is a good starting point. It is designed to tell us who should win and by roughly how much. But then it's up to the individual capper to look for other factors.
May we both have successful seasons