For what it's worth, we finally had a winning day yesterday, finishing 3-2 in our posted plays.
Our winners were TOR, as J.A. Happ and the much maligned (by me) TOR bullpen combined for a 1 hit 2-0 shutout of the Mariners; the NYM, as Steven Matz and the Mets bullpen combined for a 5 hit shutout of the Marins; and the CHI WS (1st 5 innings) as Jose Quintana shut out the Tigers over 6.2 innings. before the inept White Sox bullpen, blew another save and cost Quintana the a win.
Out losers were CLEV, as Corey Kluber threw a quality start (no surprise there), but so did Vance Worley (now that's truly shocking) and BALT scored 2 late runs to beat the Indians 5-3. I still don't understand how any decent major league offense can manage to score just 2 runs off Vance Worley in 7 innings. Our other loser was TB who fell behind OAK 2-0 andthen tied the game in the 8th only to have have their bullpen give up a game winning HR in the bottom of the inning, losing 3-2. Blake Snell threw a quality start, but so did recently recalled Jesse Hahn.
On to today's card, as we try to build on this.
STL @ NYM
Carlos Martinez Has been incredibly streaky for the Cardinals this season and holds a 6-6 record. He started out the season by tossing 4 straight quality starts. He followed that up with a 5 start stretch in which he failed to record a single quality start, allowing 28 hits and 19 earned runs in 25 innings. That stretch coincided with the period when it became public that Martinez was being accused of transmitting an STD. He has followed that up with his current streak of 8 quality starts in his last 9 outings, in 6 of which he allowed 1 or 0 earned runs.
Noah Syndergaard is having a Cy Young type season. He's 9-4 with 13 quality starts in his 18 outings as a starter. He missed a 14th by just 1 out in his last start, as he pitched 5.2 innings, allowing 1 unearned run, 7 hits and 2 walks while striking out 8 against the Cubs. Syndergaard did need 105 pitches to work his way out of a few jams in his first start since leaving his previous outing early due to arm fatigue. However, he quelled any concerns about his arm strength as his fastball was clocked at 97-plus mph through of the evening, including one clocked at 100 mph in the 1st inning. In his 43rd game, Syndergaard also reached 300 career K's, making him the 3rd-fastest among active pitchers to do so. Only Yu Darvish, who notched 300 in 37 games, and Jose Fernandez who did so in 42 games, did it faster. He's allowed more than 3 runs just twice all season.
Both of these guys have very good numbers. However, Syndergaard's are just flat out better. His metrics are over a full run better.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cardinals
|
1.17
|
3.44
|
3.62
|
3.88
|
15
|
13
|
19
|
12
|
61.3%
|
74.80%
|
0.211
|
0.258
|
Mets
|
1.20
|
3.10
|
3.57
|
3.95
|
16
|
11
|
36
|
6
|
85.7%
|
79.50%
|
0.222
|
0.279
|
Both of these teams have excellent bullpens. Based on W-L record Save Rate, and Strand Rate, well give the Mets a very slim edge.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
38.7
|
3
|
|
110
|
2
|
|
0.337
|
2
|
|
15.9
|
7
|
Mets
|
-19.9
|
17
|
|
96
|
15
|
|
0.310
|
21
|
|
9.8
|
17
|
Offensively, the Mets are mediocre, while the Cards are excellent.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
-1
|
22
|
Mets
|
5
|
15
|
Neither team is good defensively, but the Mets are better.
The Cards have one big edge in this game. They have the much better offense. The bullpens are both good and pretty even, the defenses are close with a small edge to NY. The biggest edge the Mets have is the better starting pitcher. Both pitchers are good, but Syndergaard's better. The metrics say the same thing, Sydergaard's are about a full run better than Martinez's. I bet this one this morning, the line has gone up since then
PICK - NYM ML (-139)
PHIL @ MIA
Jeremy Hellickson is having a surprisingly (at least to me) good season for the Phillies, with 11 quality starts in his 20 outings, including 5 of his last 6. He missed a 12th by just a single out. He has allowed more than 3 earned runs just 5 times this season. Helickson has faced MIA twice already this season. In early May, in MIA, he allowed 8 hits, but just 1 run in 5.1 innings, in a 4-3 win; and in his last starts in PHIL, he allowed 5 hits and just 1 earned run in 8 innings of a 4-1 win. In his two starts against MIA, Hellickson has compiled a 1.95 WHIP and a 2.70 ERA with 13 strikeouts and just 1 walk. Ironically, the Marlins were among the potential suitors for Hellickson even before losing Wei-Yin Chen to the disabled list with a sprained left elbow. The Orioles, Pirates and Giants are also rumored to have interest in Hellickson.
Jerrad Cosart has dealing with an oblique injury that's kept him on the DL recently, but he appears healthy now. However, prior to his stint on the DL, Cosart had allowed 14 runs (13 earned) over 14.2 innings in his 3 major league starts this season. In those 3 starts he walked almost twice as many (15) and he struck out (8). That doesn't inspire confidence.
This certainly looks like a mismatch. Hellickson's numbers are so much better.
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Phillies
|
1.35
|
4.34
|
3.75
|
4.09
|
14
|
15
|
29
|
10
|
74.4%
|
75.50%
|
0.252
|
0.301
|
Marlins
|
1.27
|
3.60
|
3.77
|
4.15
|
20
|
17
|
37
|
16
|
69.8%
|
76.90%
|
0.224
|
0.282
|
These bullpens are very close, maybe a slight lean to MIA based on WHIP, ERA, BAA and BABIP.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
|
BD
|
v L
|
v R
|
Phillies
|
-99
|
29
|
|
77
|
29
|
|
0.291
|
29
|
|
2.1
|
29
|
|
29
|
30
|
28
|
Marlins
|
-17.2
|
16
|
|
96
|
15
|
|
0.318
|
17
|
|
14.4
|
8
|
|
13
|
18
|
11
|
No question who has the edge here. MIA i average, offensively, but PHIL is woefully weak.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
8.5
|
14
|
Marlins
|
41.4
|
3
|
Defensively, PHIL is very average but MIA is excellent.
In this game MIA has the much better offense and the much better defense. However, PHIL has the much better starting pitcher. Cosart's making his first start since coming off the DL. I don't expect him to be sharp, and he wasn't pitching very welll before he went on the DL, so I expect him to get hit, even by Philly. Hellickson has pitched very well and has pitcher very well v MIA. Neither of these bullpens is particularly good, so I prefer to take them out of this equation. The big mismatch is at starting pitcher, so that's where Ill take my chances.
PICK - PHIL ML 1st 5 innings (+113)
COL @ BALT
Jorge De La Rosa lasted just 4 innings in an 11-3 loss against the Rays at Coors, in his last start. He allowed 9 runs (7 earned), on 11 hits while striking out just 1. However, prior to that outing, De La Rosa had tossed 5 straight quality starts, in which he allowed 31 hits and 11 earned runs in 32 innings, with 20 strikeouts and 12 walks.
Amazingly Yovani Gallardo is 3-2 even though he has just 1 quality start in his 11 outings, and he's allowed at least 4 earned runs 5 times. Since his return from the DL Gallardo does have a 2-1 record, but he's compiled a 1.69 WHIP and a 5.06 ERA with his 1 quality start. He's lost whatever semblance of control he once had, as he's walked 4 in 3 straight starts and has now issued multiple walks in 7 straight starts. He owns a brutal 37:31 K:BB over 55.1 innings, and he's only allowed 2 or fewer runs in 3 of his 11 starts.
Neither pitcher has very good numbers, but De La Rosa's metrics are significantly better than Gallardo's.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rockies
|
1.42
|
4.92
|
3.97
|
4.21
|
12
|
14
|
26
|
12
|
68.4%
|
68.70%
|
0.269
|
0.315
|
Orioles
|
1.30
|
3.08
|
3.95
|
4.17
|
24
|
8
|
36
|
12
|
75.0%
|
79.20%
|
0.239
|
0.291
|
Most of the edges in this matchup go to BALT
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
-42.2
|
22
|
|
92
|
20
|
|
0.336
|
4
|
|
9.8
|
17
|
Orioles
|
26.8
|
5
|
|
105
|
6
|
|
0.334
|
5
|
|
13.5
|
10
|
The Orioles are the much better offensive team.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
22
|
7
|
Orioles
|
-15.7
|
24
|
The Rockies do have the better defense.
The Orioles have the better bullpen and the better offense. The Rockies have the better defense and IMO the better starting pitcher. With the exception of his last outing De La Rosa has pitched very well over the last month. Gallardo, has been dreadful, and I fully expect the Rockies to get to him. We'll just take the bullpens out of the equation and trust De La Rosa to bounce back, and keep the Os in check for 5 innings.
PICK - COL ML 1st 5 Innings (+143)
SD @ TOR
Colin Rea hasn't been very effective this season. He's 5-4, with 6 quality starts in his 17 outings. He's allowed at least 4 earned runs 6 times this season, including his last 2 outings. He's allowed more hits (96) than innings pitched (93.1) and when coupled with his 40 walks, means 136 base runners in just over 93 innings.
Aaron Sanchez is having an excellent season for TOR. He's 10-1, with 15 quality starts in his 19 outings. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 3 times all season, and 2 earned runs or less in 14 of his starts, including 8 of his last 9.
Sanchez has the much better numbers across the board. His metrics are well over a full run better
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Padres
|
1.39
|
4.48
|
3.92
|
4.31
|
16
|
11
|
23
|
10
|
69.7%
|
71.50%
|
0.249
|
0.304
|
Blue Jays
|
1.28
|
4.10
|
3.49
|
3.97
|
11
|
21
|
25
|
13
|
65.8%
|
73.30%
|
0.254
|
0.307
|
Neither bullpen is good, but based on WHIP, ERA and metrics TOR has the better bullpen .
Offenses
Padres
|
-23.7
|
18
|
|
91
|
23
|
|
0.303
|
26
|
|
9.4
|
20
|
Blue Jays
|
17.8
|
8
|
|
106
|
5
|
|
0.333
|
6
|
|
16.3
|
5
|
This one's not close, The Jays have the much better offense, and SD is much worse v righties (rank #29) than TOR (rank #6).
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Padres
|
1.8
|
19
|
Blue Jays
|
15.2
|
11
|
The Blue Jays have the better defense, as well.
In this game, the Blue Jays have all the edges. The much better starting pitcher, the better bullpen, the much better offense and the better defense. There is no reason to back SD here. That why TOR is a -275 ML. No thanks. We'll take a shot on the RL
PICK - TOR RL (-135)
CHI CUBS @ CHI WS
Jake Arrieta had tossed 3 straight subpar outings, in which he had 21 hits and 15 earned runs in 16.1 innings, with 14 strikeouts and 8 walks. He finally righted the ship somewhat, tossing 7 innings of 5 hit, 1 run ball v the Mets in a 2-1 loss to Noah Syndergaard, striking out 8 Mets while walking just 1. . He has spoiled us over the last couple of years, but this season, control and pitch count have been his big problems. He's walked 22in his last 53.1 innings after yielded just 21 in his first 68 innings. Of course, Arrieta still has a 12-4 record, with 11 quality starts in his 19 outings, and he's still allowed more than 3 earned runs just 4 times this season. However 3 of those happen to be 3 of his last 4 starts.
I am amazed that Miguel Gonzalez has done as well as he has. He hasn't been good, he's 2-5, with 8 quality starts in his 14 outings, including his last 4, and 5 of his last 6. That's frankly a much more than I ever expected from him. He has also been shelled for 5 or more runs this season only 3 times. That's much less than I expected. He's been somewhat worse at home posting a 1.45 WHIP and a 5.86 ERA at U.S. Cellular. What can I say, Miguel Gonzalez has been very mediocre, but that's way more than I expected.
Across the board, Arrieta's has the better numbers, his metrics are over a full run better.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cubs
|
1.22
|
3.83
|
3.70
|
4.02
|
12
|
12
|
19
|
10
|
65.5%
|
73.90%
|
0.211
|
0.257
|
White Sox
|
1.46
|
3.62
|
4.07
|
4.22
|
14
|
13
|
27
|
18
|
60.0%
|
75.80%
|
0.251
|
0.313
|
The Cubs bullpen is nothing to write home about, that why they traded for Chapman today. However, they are still better that the garbage that the White Sox have.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
43.8
|
2
|
|
108
|
3
|
|
0.336
|
3
|
|
22.8
|
1
|
White Sox
|
-50.4
|
25
|
|
89
|
24
|
|
0.309
|
23
|
|
5.3
|
26
|
The White Sox have the better offense by a wide margin.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
61.5
|
1
|
White Sox
|
-19.1
|
25
|
The Cubs also have the much better defense
In this game the Cubs have all the edges. There is no area wgere the White Sox have an advantage.
PICK - CHI CUBS RL (-130)
CIN @ SF
Not much detailed analysis here. It's late and I've had a few.
At this stage in their respective careers, DeSclafani is flat out better than Peavey, at least that's what the numbers say.
All the other edges favor SF. Ill Take a shot on CIN in 1st 5. They been hitting very well lately. Idon't like or trust CIIN pen so
PICK - CIN ML 1st 5 innings (+105)