For what it's worth, and these days, that's not worth much, yesterday we bottomed out with a miserable 1-4. As I prophetically told my wife, right after we finished posting, We should have just posted the one game we really liked, DET over CHI WS. Instead we posted other plays we though had the best chance of winning, and it didn't work out at all.
The funny thing is that, as we mentioned here a couple of months ago, we are in a contest with over 6,200 contestants. The rules are simple. We can bet MLs (at current odds) and totals, no RLs. We can wager 100-500 units per bet. Rankings are based on net units. We are currently in 20th place with +26,240 units, and a record of 636-242-10 (57.9%). Last night we entered all our posted plays and a lot of others, as contest picks. In the contest, we finished 13-8. That means the contest plays, that we didn't post here went 12-4, while our posted plays were finishing 1-4. Go figure!
Our first posted play was on the Giants and Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner did his part (7 IP, 2 ER), and the Giants outhit NY 9-8. However they were 1/12 with runners in scoring position and left 10 men on base. I hate this Yankee team (Sorry Winnibet) for two reason. First I hate the ownership. Steinbtenner's greedy rich kids, won't spend the money to make this team a true contenders, even though they're making a ton of money. Instead they keep raising prices, and building luxury boxes. The average, won't be able to take his kids or grandkids to the Stadium. It's becoming too damn expensive. As for the team, they have a great bullpen, but they refuse to go out and get some decent starting pitching. They keep trotting out garbage like CC Sabathia, and mediocre arms like Ivan Nova. Secondly, as a bettor, I hate the Yankees because, as much as I think the rest of the team is crap, that bullpen makes it very dangerous to bet against them. If they can keep a game close for 5-6 innings, they've always got a shot. I don't hate them as much as I hate the Nationals, but I do hate the Yankees.
Our next posted play was on the Indians, we had reservations about this one, but we posted it anyway. Sure enough, the Indians and Trrevor Bauer crapped the bed and made Dylan Bundy look like the second coming of Jim Palmer.
Our third posted play was on the Pirates and Gerrit Cole. Cole actually pitched very well, but that potent Pirate offense made Zach Eflin look like the second coming of Steve Carlton. To be fair, Eflin was good once again. His metrics scream regression, but it hasn't happened yet, he just keeps posting quality starts.
Our next posted play was on the Marlins and Adam Conley. Conley did hit part (6 IP, 2 ER), Logan Verrett was better than expected (5.1 IP, 2 ER), but the MIA bullpen stunk out the joint for another L.
Our final posted play was our only winner as the crappy White Sox bullpen blew another save and lost another game.
In the contest ,we picked 5 other side correctly (CHI Cubs, KC, COL, SEA and MINN) and lost 4 (LAD, ARIZ, WASH and TB). We also cleaned house with 7 totals winners ,(CHI/MIL, SF/NYY,SD/WASH, ATL/COL, SEA/TOR, LAD/STL and AZ/CIN).
I guess we didn't prioritize very well. We'll try and do better today.
On to today's card.
SEA @ TOR
Hisashi Iwakuma is 10-6 with 10 quality starts in his 19 outings. He's also allowed 4 earned runs or more 7 times, but he's never allowed more than 5. Iwakuma has only given up 1 earned run on 7 hits and 4 walks over the 13.2 innings encompassing his last 2 starts, while also recording 14 strikeouts over that span. He's pitching well right now.
RA Dickey is 7-10 with 10 quality starts in his 20 outings. He's given up more at least 4 earned runs 6 times, but since the end of April, he's given up 4 run only 3 times, and 5 just once (his last start), In the other 11, it's been 3 or less runs. Prior to his last outing, Dickey had tossed 3 straight quality starts and 6 in his has 7 outings.
Iwakuma's metrics are a little better so we'll give him a slight even, but these two guys look pretty even to me.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mariners
|
1.21
|
3.46
|
3.31
|
3.75
|
14
|
15
|
25
|
16
|
61.0%
|
80.20%
|
0.222
|
0.296
|
Blue Jays
|
1.28
|
4.01
|
3.49
|
4.01
|
11
|
21
|
24
|
13
|
64.9%
|
73.90%
|
0.252
|
0.280
|
The Jays bullpen has gotten better, but the numbers give the edge to the Mariners
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Mariners
|
23.5
|
6
|
|
108
|
3
|
|
0.329
|
7
|
|
12
|
13
|
Blue Jays
|
17.8
|
8
|
|
106
|
5
|
|
0.333
|
6
|
|
16.3
|
5
|
Again, these teams are very evenly matched. There's not much of an edge here either.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Mariners
|
-29.8
|
28
|
Blue Jays
|
15.2
|
11
|
The Jays definitely have the better defense
These two teams are both very much alive in their division races. They are very evenly matched, and I have no strong opinion on the side. I give SEA a slight edge in starting pitching, bullpen and offense, but it's very slight. TOR gets a larger edge on defense. However I like the UNDER. Based on their histories, I don't expect either starter to get blown out, nor do I expect either bullpen to get lit up, and 9.5 seems high to me.
I have also made SEA ML (+112) one of my contest picks, but only because, it looks like an even game to me, and SEA is getting +$. For this post, the official pick is
PICK - UNDER 9.5
SF @ NYY
Johnny Cueto is having a superb season for SF. He's carrying a 13-2 record. with 14 quality starts in his 19 outings. Cueto has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 12 of his starts, including 10 of his last 13. However, he has produced just 1 quality start in his last 4 outings, allowing 15 ER runs in his last 27 innings. Is this just a blip on his radar screen or a warning sign?
Ivan Nova, has compiled a 7-5 record, but he really hasn't pitched all that well. He has thrown just 3 quality starts in his 13 outings as a starter. He also missed a 4th by just 1 out. However, Nova has also allowed at least 4 earned runs in 7 starts this season. He's failed to complete 6 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts, while allowing at least 4 runs in 4 of them. Nova had a disastrous June, posting a 7.52 ERA over 5 starts. However, in July, he's allowed just 1 run in 2 of his 3 starts, and he's struck out 17 in that span. In his 6 home starts, Nova has a 3-2 record with a WHIP of 1.29, an ERA of 3.74 and just 2 quality starts.
The numbers all lean in Cueto's direction.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Giants
|
1.31
|
4.00
|
3.91
|
4.14
|
18
|
13
|
26
|
18
|
59.0%
|
72.60%
|
0.249
|
0.287
|
Yankees
|
1.07
|
3.48
|
2.83
|
3.22
|
19
|
10
|
28
|
7
|
80.0%
|
75.30%
|
0.213
|
0.296
|
The Yankees have the much better bullpen.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
20.3
|
7
|
|
104
|
7
|
|
0.319
|
15
|
|
20.1
|
3
|
Yankees
|
-46.5
|
24
|
|
88
|
26
|
|
0.306
|
25
|
|
6.3
|
24
|
The Giants have the much better offense.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
59.5
|
2
|
Yankees
|
-11.5
|
23
|
The Giants also have the much better defense.
In this game, the Yankees do have the clearly superior bullpen, and as I mentioned earlier, that always frightens me, if I'm betting against the Yankees. However, SF has the much better offense, the much better defense and IMO the much better starting pitcher. It didn't work out last night, but I still love playing on good pitchers coming off a bad outing. Cueto is a very good pitcher, and he's coming off 2 subpar outings. I think he bounces back, and Nova's still much too inconsistent for my taste. . I bet this as soon as I heard about the pitching change and got SF as a dog, they're now favored.
PICK SF ML (+128)
I've been out all afternoon, so I just don't have the time for my usual write ups. I'll try and explain my picks as best I can but it'll be very brief. I do like several games, but the way I've been picking, it may not make any difference. Sorry.
CLEV @ BALT
Tomlin v Bausman. I still don't like or trust Josh Tomlin, and I don't trust CLEV very much either right now. y Kein Gausman has better metrics than Tomlin, and the O's are very good at home. I think the Os get to Tomlin, and roll again at home.
PICK - BALT ML (-129)
SD @ WASH
Edwin Jackson v Max Scherzer, need I say more. Edwin Jackson made his 1st start for SD at it was a good one. He beat SF 5-3 with 6.1 innings of 1 hit (a 3 run HR) 3 run ball. However, he also walked 5 while striking out 4. I'm not buying Edwin Jackson at all. apparently neiter are the oddsmakers as the ML is currently -312. I do, however, believe in Max Scherezer so I'll lay the 1.5.
PICK - WASH RL (-128)
MINN @ BOS
Ricky Nolasco v David Price: That's a mismatch. BOS has the better everything, and by a wide margin. The Price is right.
PICK - BOS RL (-120)
ARIZ @ CIN
Robbie Ray v. Keyvius Sampson: Sampson's hetting a sot start, which meand he wasn't good enough to break into a bad CIN rotation. Ray's metric are well under 4.00 and ARIZ has been a good road team.
PICK - ARIZ ML (-125)
LAA @ HTN
Jered Weaver v Coli n McHugh: Weaver's tossed 2 quality starts in a row. I'n still not a believer. His metrics are over 5.00. McHugh's not great but his metrics are over a run better. The Astro have one of the better bullpen. I bet they hit Weaver hard. I'm fading Weaver.
PICK - HTN - RL (+106)
NYM @ MIA
Jacob deGrom v Jose Fernandez: We have two premier pitchers who are both pitching well. These two teams are very evenly matched, but the Mets do have the stronger bullpen. I bet the total this morning because I expected it to drop and it has from 6.5 to 6. I don't have a strong opinion on the side, but there no reason deGrom and the better pen should be a big dog, so we'll take the shot.
PUCK - NYM ML (+154) and UNDER 6.5 (100)
TEX @ KC
Cole Hamels v. Yordano Ventura: This one may not be right but it's simple for me. Cole Hamels is still an elite pitcher. Ventura is a head case and a headhunter. I'm fading Ventura
PICK - TEX ML (-117)
ATL @ COL
Matt Wisler v Tyler Anderson: We have two good young pitchers. Anderson's metrics are over a full run better than Wisler's. COL has the better offense, especially at home.
PICK - COL RL (-125) and UNDER 12 (-105)