2016 MLB Record:
60-64 for -4.75 Units
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#1: Texas Rangers -120 (1st 5 Innings Only)
Sabathia has truly only had 1 good month this year, May where he sported a 3.7 xFIP. In April and June his xFIP has been over 5, indicating a pitcher that is really struggling. One key factor for Sabathia is his “cutter”, a pitch he relies on to get hitters out as his fastball velocity has declined. Well, the best offensive team against the pitch is Texas this season, by a long shot. I’ll back the Rangers for the first-5 as NY has a strong advantage with their BP.
#2: Cleveland Indians -1.5 RL -125
Over the year, Kluber has become my #7 ranked starter, as he’s been moving up the ranks with each start. On the other side, Wisler is ranked #128 and one of the worst pitchers over the last 30-days with an e-ERA (expected ERA) of 5.8. Huge discrepancies offensively between the two teams as well (#4 for CLE and #30 for ATL), plus you get the Indians to hit for the full 27 outs, and I love their chances of winning this one by 2+.
#3: Chicago Cubs -1.5 RL -140
Similar concept here as well. Much better pitcher, two offenses that are drastically different against left-handed pitching, and an overall mismatch between the two. I have Cubs winning this one by 3.3 runs so I’ll back them here on the RL.
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Good Luck