For what it's worth, yesterday turned out to an unmitigated disaster. We couldn't have picked any worse, if we had been trying. We did cash our day play on the Cubs RL. That was it! 7 evening plays and 7 Ls. Our bankroll took a considerable hit. The strange thing is, that for the past 3 days, we've done really well in the day games and we've absolutely sucked once the sun went down. We're sure that's just coincidence, but it's still weird. On the plus side our posted plays are still 228-145-2 (61%) for the season. This too shall pass. No time to wallow in self pity. We'll just get up, dust ourselves off, and get right back on that horse.
On to today's card.
BOS @ TOR
Rick Porcello is having an excellent season for the Red Sox. In his 9 outings, he's tossed 6 quality starts. It funny how you can phrase something to give it either a positive or negative connotation. The is what ESPN wrote about Porcelloo's last start. "This was the first time in his last four starts that he held an opponent to fewer than three runs". Sound like a bad thing - right? Allow me to rephrase. In 7 of his 9 outings Porcello has allowed 3 runs or less. In the other 2, he allowed 4. That tells me that Porcello has pitched pretty damn well, and that he keeps his team in games. He doesn't get blown out.
Marcus Stroman has also pitched very well for the Jays. In his 10 outings, he's thrown 7 quality starts. He's now allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts. Of course, in the 5th, he got shelled for 13 hits and 7 earned runs in 4.2 innings by TB.
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Porcello
|
1.09
|
3.47
|
3.57
|
3.75
|
8.53
|
2.05
|
4.15
|
1.11
|
0.226
|
0.269
|
76.90%
|
Stroman
|
1.17
|
3.89
|
3.82
|
3.79
|
5.97
|
2.47
|
2.42
|
0.52
|
0.236
|
0.272
|
65.90%
|
The numbers confirm that Stroman's been very good, but Porcello's been a little better so far.
When we look at these 2 bullpens, there's little doubt as to which one is better.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Red Sox
|
6
|
7
|
12
|
3
|
80.0%
|
25
|
76.50%
|
1.24
|
3.04
|
3.38
|
3.79
|
0.219
|
0.296
|
Blue Jays
|
4
|
13
|
13
|
7
|
65.0%
|
17
|
76.70%
|
1.35
|
3.91
|
3.55
|
4.06
|
0.256
|
0.301
|
The Red Sox pen has pretty much every edge.
When we compare these two offense, there's a huge difference between them.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
61.4
|
!
|
129
|
1
|
0.365
|
1
|
Blue Jays
|
-11.6
|
15
|
96
|
15
|
0.314
|
16
|
The Red Sox have the best offense in baseball, while the Jays are average. Additionally, BOS is even better v righthanders, while TOR is worse.
We have the clearly superior offense, in a hitter's park, with a much better bullpen, and a starting pitcher who is at least as good as, and arguably better than, his opponent. Why is TOR favored? As for the total (9), I'm betting on good pitching dominating this matchup.
PICK - BOS ML (+115) and UNDER 9
PHIL @ CHI
Jerad Eickhoff has pitched very well for the Phillies this season. He's tossed 6 quality starts in his 9 outings and has only surrendered more than 3 runs only once.
Kyle hendricks has pitched decently for the Cubs this season. He's produced 4 quality starts in his 8 outings. On the negative side, Hendricks has failed to go six innings in 4 of his 8 outings, and both of his last 2 starts. On the plus side, he continues to limit baserunnsers.
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Eickhoff
|
1.19
|
3.86
|
3.92
|
3.81
|
7.21
|
1.84
|
3.91
|
1.17
|
0.251
|
0.286
|
72.50%
|
Hendricks
|
1.06
|
3.30
|
3.51
|
3.34
|
7.38
|
2.33
|
3.17
|
0.39
|
0.214
|
0.263
|
66.40%
|
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Phillies
|
9
|
5
|
19
|
5
|
79.2%
|
35
|
81.70%
|
1.32
|
3.81
|
3.68
|
3.99
|
0.235
|
0.278
|
Cubs
|
6
|
4
|
9
|
3
|
75.0%
|
21
|
77.50%
|
1.19
|
3.09
|
3.48
|
3.80
|
0.193
|
0.239
|
This is actually closer, in that the Phils have a slightly better save and strand rate, but the Cubs have the better WHIP, ERA, metrics, BAA and BABIP. Phils are decent but the Cubs are better.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
-52.3
|
28
|
75
|
27
|
0.286
|
28
|
Cubs
|
36.8
|
4
|
113
|
4
|
0.342
|
4
|
The Cubs are a powerhouse and PHIL is a bottom 5 offense. CUBS in a landslide
I like Jerad Eickhoff. I think he's a good young pitcher. I also think Kyle hendricks is a good young pitchers, but in this game he's being price as if he were an elite pitcher, and he certainly is not one. I won't lay -260 on Kyle Hendricks. I'm also not comfortable laying -1.5 with two good pitchers and two good bullpens. The Phils are offensively challenged. The Cubs are not but I'm still willing to bet on the pitchers to keep this game under the number.
PICK - PHIL @ CHI Cubs UNDER 10.5 (-110) got this as soon as it came out
BALT @ CLEV
Ubaldo Jimenez seems to be getting worse as the season progresses. For the season he has 2 quality starts in his 9 outings. In 4 of his last 5 starts, he's allowed at least 4 earned run and in 3 of them, he's allowed 6. Tats a total of 38 hits and 24 earned runs in his last 27.2 innings. Jimenez once averaged 96 mph on his fastball, but he's now averaging below 90 mph on the radar gun. He simply can't blow hitters away like he once did.
Danny Salazar is having an excellent season for the Indians. In his 9 outings, he's tossed 5 quality starts. His last start, v the potent Red Sox, was the first time in his nine starts that he had allowed more than three runs in an outing.
The difference between these pitchers is night and day. There is no comparison. Salazar is a budding star and Jimenez is pretty much done.
When we look at these 2 bullpens, one is definitely better than the other.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Orioles
|
12
|
4
|
16
|
8
|
66.7%
|
22
|
83.20%
|
1.24
|
2.60
|
3.66
|
3.89
|
0.234
|
0.289
|
Indians
|
5
|
8
|
12
|
4
|
75.0%
|
18
|
76.90%
|
1.29
|
3.53
|
3.83
|
4.12
|
0.226
|
0.274
|
CLEV has a better save rate, but BALT holds every other edge. And today, I expect to see the BALT pen early and often, but it may not matter.
Where we look at these 2 offenses, one is better than the other, but no that much better.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
10.4
|
7
|
107
|
6
|
0.332
|
5
|
Indians
|
5.5
|
10
|
99
|
13
|
0.315
|
14
|
Both offenses are above average, but the Orioles have the slightly better numbers.
The Orioles have the better bullpen and a little better offense, but I don't believe it will matter today. The mismatch at starting pitcher is huge. I think the Tribe to tee off on Jimenez early and often, while Salazar keeps the Os offense in check. I expect CLEV puts this one away early.
PICK - CLEV ML (-146) and Sprinkle on ML +140
MIA @ ATL
Wei-Yin Chen hasn't pitched all that badly for the Marlins this season. He has tossed 6 quality starts in his 9 outings. However, when he makes a mistake, Chen is getting punished hard thus far. He has allowed four home runs in his last four starts and now has given up eight in 54.2 innings this season, a rough 1.3 HR/9.
Aaron Blair's major league career has gotten off to a miserable start. He does have 1 quality start in his 5 outings, but he's allowed 28 hits and 18 earned runs in his 21.1 major league innings. He's also walked more (12) than he's struck out (8). The Braves' bullpen was heavily taxed earlier in the week, forcing Casey Kelly into relief duty and leaving Blair as really the only option today.
Other than his propensity for giving up the long ball, Chen holds every other edge and by a considerable margin.
When we look at the two bullpens, neither is particularly good.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Marlins
|
8
|
8
|
19
|
6
|
76.0%
|
29
|
77.80%
|
1.39
|
3.37
|
4.00
|
4.31
|
0.240
|
0.300
|
Braves
|
5
|
13
|
9
|
7
|
56.2%
|
18
|
70.70%
|
1.49
|
4.48
|
3.69
|
4.11
|
0.257
|
0.336
|
ATL has the better metrics, while MIA has every other edge. It's close but we'll give a slight edge to MIA.
When we compare the offenses, it's obvious who has the better offense.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Marlins
|
-0.4
|
13
|
102
|
10
|
0.325
|
10
|
Braves
|
-75
|
30
|
67
|
30
|
0.272
|
30
|
MIA has an offense that's well above average, and ATL has the worst offense in the league.
Betting on ATL is a difficult thing to do. On Thursday, I did it, holding my nose, and I paid the price as they made Wily Peralta look decent. Yesterday, I bet against them, and they somehow found a way to win and beat me again. When I look at this game I see a decent pitcher, Chen facing an awful offense in a pitcher's park. I also see a decent offense, MIA, facing an awful pitcher Blair. I' don't think much of either bullpen, but I don't think it will matter.
PICK - MIA ML (-126) and sprinkle on RL (+135)
SF @ COL
Madison Bumgarner is 6-2 so far this season and has pitched tremendously. He's had 7 consecutive quality starts, in which he's allowed 2 runs or less, and 1 or less in his last 3. So far, this season, he's allowed 54 hits and just 16 earned runs in 66.1 innings, with 77 strikeouts and 20 walks.
Eddie Butler has started 4 games for the Rockies this season with very mixed results. He has 2 quality starts in which he's allowed 11 hits but only 1 earned runin 12 innings. In his other 2 outings, he's given up 13 hits and 9 earned runs in just 10.2 innings. He did have his best start against these Giants earlier this month, pitching 6 shutout innings and allowing just 4 hits.
Butler's numbers are OK, but, Bumgarners are clearly much better
When we look at these two bullpens, they're almost identical.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Giants
|
8
|
4
|
14
|
6
|
70.0%
|
27
|
71.50%
|
1.30
|
4.00
|
3.71
|
4.00
|
0.253
|
0.297
|
Rockies
|
7
|
5
|
14
|
5
|
73.7%
|
24
|
70.60%
|
1.30
|
4.12
|
3.74
|
3.98
|
0.252
|
0.302
|
SF has a slightly better W-L record, but that's about it. The is no significant edge to be found.
When we look at these two offenses, we find that one is clearly better.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
2.9
|
11
|
103
|
9
|
0.316
|
12
|
Rockies
|
-31
|
26
|
89
|
22
|
0.331
|
7
|
SF is an above average offense with big edges in run creation. COL is a below average offense.
I get the better offensive team and an elite starting pitcher.
PICK - SF ML -142
LAD @ NYM
After a surprisingly strong 1st 4 starts, Kenta Maeda had really struggled in 4 of his last 5 outings. In his first 4 outings, all quality starts, Maeda allowed 17 hits and just 1 earned run in 25,1 innings, with 23 Ks and 5 BBs. In his last 5, he's allowed 24 hits and 18 earned runs in 26.2 innings with 25 Ks and 10 BBs. He's failed to make it out of the 5th inning in each of his last 3 starts, with a 7.71 ERA in those 14 innings.
Noah Syndergaard has been nothing short of sensational for the Mets this season, tossing 8 quality starts in his 9 outings. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs (4) just once, and allowed 2 or less in 7 of his 9 outings. Syndergard has also notched 76 Ks, while walking just 9 in his 60.1 innings.
Maeda's numbers are good, but pale in comparison to Syndergaard's.
When we look at these two bullpens, it's quite clears who has the better pen.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Dodgers
|
8
|
10
|
14
|
8
|
63.6%
|
23
|
70.90%
|
1.12
|
3.52
|
3.75
|
4.19
|
0.201
|
0.245
|
Mets
|
5
|
4
|
17
|
3
|
85.0%
|
32
|
82.20%
|
1.11
|
2.36
|
3.01
|
3.39
|
0.209
|
0.278
|
The Mets have one of the best bullpens in the league. The Dodgers aren't awful. but they're nowhere near that good.
When we look at these two offenses, again it's clear which unit is superior.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Dodgers
|
-20.1
|
23
|
90
|
21
|
0.302
|
24
|
Mets
|
0.7
|
12
|
101
|
12
|
0.316
|
12
|
The Mets possess an above average offense, whaile the Dodgers are well below average. Further, while the Mets have problems with lefties (#28), they feast on righties (#().
We have the better offense, the better bullpen and the much better pitchers. There's absolutely no reason not to take the Mets.
PICK - NYM ML (-133) and sprinkle on RL (+165)
I am royally pissed off right now. I probably shouldn't write this until tomorrow but right now I am really angry. That clown Adam Hamari tosses Noah Syndergaard in the 3rd inning of a scoreless game. BS. That SOB shouldn't be umpiring a LL games much less MLB. I don't mind losing a bet because I made a bad pick or because stuff happens, like Matt Cain having to leave the game with an injury last night. But I abhor an official deciding the outcome of a game. And that what that SOB did. No one paid to see you toss a star player. They paid to see Noah syndergaard pitch. And Adma Hamari made that impossible. Let the players decide the game not the umps.
SD @ ARIZ
Cesar Vargas has started 6 games for the Padres. Ho's posted 2 quality starts, both at Petco. He's pitched much better at Petco than on the road. In his 3 home starts, he's allowed 13 hits and 4 earned runs in 18 innings, for a.11 WHIP and a 2.00 ERA. On the road, he's allowed 22 hits and 8 earned runs in 14.1 innings, for a 1.95 WHIP and a 5.02 ERA.
After getting off to a slow start, Zack Greinke has settled in nicely at the top of the Arizona. In his 10 outings, he's tossed 6 quality starts, including 4 in his last 5 efforts and 6 in his last 8.
The metrics in particular indicate that Greinke is actually pitching better than his bloated 4.59 ERA.
When we look at the two bullpens, we find they're both mediocre and vrery close
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Padres
|
8
|
7
|
12
|
8
|
60.0%
|
27
|
72.40%
|
1.42
|
4.40
|
3.98
|
4.36
|
0.247
|
0.299
|
Diamondbacks
|
7
|
8
|
10
|
3
|
76.9%
|
17
|
71.60%
|
1.42
|
4.22
|
3.91
|
4.18
|
0.261
|
0.320
|
Offensively, this is a mismatch
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Padres
|
-49
|
27
|
72
|
29
|
0.275
|
29
|
Diamondbacks
|
6
|
9
|
102
|
10
|
0.332
|
5
|
The Diamondback have a top 10 offense, while the Padres are bottom 5.
To me this pick is simple. I get the better offense and the better starting pitcher with an even bullpen.
PICK - ARIZ ML -172 and sprinkle on RL (+120)