For what it's worth, yesterday turned out to be a very good day, in spite of that fact that we didn't have much time available. Our posted plays finished 8-3.
One of our losers was the Chicago White Sox as the Indians became the first team to get to Chris Sale this season, costing us both our ML bet and our Under bet. We knew that sooner or late,r Sale would get beat, but we cashed 9 tickets before losing this one, so we have no complaints there. We'll probably be back on him in his next start.
Our 2nd loss was BALT ML as they lost a close one, late, 3-2.
On the plus side of the ledger, TB jumped to an early 3-0 lead v Koehler and the Marlin, and held on for a 4-3 ML W. Eovaldi shut out the Blue Jays 9-0 for ML W #2. PITT crushed Miller and the Dbacks 12-1 giving us a ML W and the OVER as well, for Ws #3 and 4. Price and the Red Sox won 8-3 covering the RL and giving us W #5. The Nats jumped all over Harvey and cruised to a 7-4 behind Strasburg for ML W #6. Smardzija and the Giants rolled to an easy 9-2 win for ML W #7. And finally SEA came back late to edge OAK 6-5 for MT W#8.
On to today
NYM @ WASH
Steven Matz is having an excellent season. Except for an awful first start v MIA, in which he allowed 6 hits and 7 earned runs in 1.2 innings, Matz has been superb. In his 6 other outings, all quality starts, he hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of them. He did have the start before his last one skipped, when he suffered some forearm soreness, but he appeared to be in fine form against the Brewers. He allowed 2 runs on 3 hits, did not walk a batter, and struck out 8 over s7 innings in a 3-2 win against Milwaukee. He was efficient, tossing 65 of 88 pitches for strikes, but was pulled after 7 innings as a precautionary measure to make sure the forearm doesn't cause any more problems.
Tanner Roark is also having a very good season. In his 9 outings, Roark has tossed 6 quality starts, including his last one, in which he struck out 7 and allowed just 1 run on 6 hits and 2 walks over 6.2 innings in a 4-1 win over the Marlins. Roark had faced the Marlins 3 times already this season, resulting in all 3 of his losses, and a 8.40 ERA against them, but he made the necessary adjustments. Despite those 3 ugly outings against Miami, he still has very good numbers, which tells you how well Roark has pitched against everybody else.
Roark's pitched very well, but Matz has been even better.
When we look at the two bullpens, we find they are both very good and very evenly matched.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mets
|
4
|
4
|
16
|
3
|
84.2%
|
81.20%
|
32
|
1.11
|
2.33
|
3.03
|
3.42
|
0.207
|
0.279
|
Nationals
|
6
|
6
|
13
|
4
|
76.5%
|
82.60%
|
24
|
1.11
|
2.57
|
3.26
|
3.71
|
0.217
|
0.280
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Mets have a slightly higher save rate and the slightly better ERA and metrics. Everything else is so close, that it's not worth mentioning. We'll give a very slight edge to the Mets.
When we examine these 2 offenses again it's very close,
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
1.1
|
12
|
101
|
11
|
0.318
|
12
|
Nationals
|
-11.6
|
18
|
94
|
18
|
0.315
|
14
|
The Mets do have an edge in "Offensive Runs Above Average" and "Weighter Runs Creates +" So we'll give the Mets the small offensive edge.
The Mets do have a small offensive edge and a very slight bullpen edge and when we compare starting pitchers, although they're both very good Matz looks better than Roark.
PICK - NYM - ML (-103) and UNDER 7.5
PHIL @ DET
Aaron Nola may only be 3-3, but he's having a superb season. In his 9 outings, he's produced 7 quality starts, including his last 6. Nola has one of the best curve balls in baseball, but he needs to command his fastball more consistently to set up his breaking pitches. His future is bright atop the young and improving Phillies' rotation, but he is learning on the job and there will likely be occasional rough stretches like his last start. Nola allowed 5 runs (t2 earned) on 7 hits, walking 2 and striking out 6 over 7 innings of a 7-1 loss to Atlanta. t was technically a quality start, but was tarnished by a 3-run home run after an error left the door open in the 7th.
Anibel Sanchez, on the other hand, has really struggled this season, and has yet to produce a single quality start in his 9 outings. Sanchez is 3-5, and winless in four May starts. He has only made it into the 7th inning once all season. He's allowed 50 hits and 26 walks in 47.2 innings.
Nola's better in every category and it's not close.
When we compare these two bullpens, we find that they are both good and fairly evenly matched.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Phillies
|
9
|
5
|
18
|
5
|
78.3%
|
82.10%
|
33
|
1.34
|
3.84
|
3.71
|
4.01
|
0.237
|
0.281
|
Tigers
|
5
|
4
|
14
|
4
|
77.8%
|
72.90%
|
26
|
1.34
|
4.11
|
3.75
|
3.97
|
0.264
|
0.306
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Phillies do have a b\much better strand rate, and slightly better ERA and the better BAA and BABIP, so we'll give the Phillies a small edge.
When we look at these two offenses, it clear that the Tigers a definitely the superior offense.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Phillies
|
-52
|
29
|
73
|
28
|
0.284
|
28
|
Tigers
|
6.8
|
9
|
107
|
7
|
0.328
|
8
|
The Tigers are a top 10 offense, while the Phillies are a bottom 3.
If you're betting on offensive firepower, fire away on the Tigers. But you should know my mantra by now. Good pitching will shut down good offense, more often than not. PHIL has the slightly better bullpen and the much better starter.
PICK - PHIL ML +114) and UNDER 8.5 (-115)
CHI Cubs @ STL
Jake Arrieta has picked up right where he left off, at the end of his Cy Young Award winning 2015 season. In his 9 2016 outings, he's tossed 7 quality starts. And, in his two "non quality" starts, he allowed only 1 earned run in each, but only pitched 5 innings. In total, Arrieta's allowed 33 hits and 9 earned runs in 63 innings!
Carlos Martinez started out the season in excellent form, tossing 4 quality starts in his first 4 starts. He allowed 16 hit and 6 earned runs in 28 innings. However, since then Martinez has been pretty bad, allowing 4 runs in 3 of his last 4 outings. In those last 4 outings, he's allowed 22 hits and 13 earned runs in 20 innings.
A clean sweep for Arrieta!
When we look at these two bullpens, we find that they're both very good and very evenly matched.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cubs
|
6
|
4
|
8
|
3
|
72.7%
|
78.60%
|
19
|
1.17
|
3.05
|
3.46
|
3.74
|
0.187
|
0.238
|
Cardinals
|
8
|
3
|
9
|
3
|
75.0%
|
76.60%
|
13
|
1.20
|
3.56
|
3.13
|
3.39
|
0.220
|
0.270
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Cardinals have the better W-L record and the better metrics, while the Cubs have the lower ERA and better BAA and BABIP. Everything else is very close. To close to call, so we'll say it's dead even.
When we look at these two offenses, both are high powered and very dangerous, and very close in ability.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
30.4
|
3
|
111
|
4
|
0.340
|
4
|
Cardinals
|
36.5
|
2
|
118
|
2
|
0.347
|
2
|
The Cards do rank slightly higher, so will give them a small edge.
The biggest difference between these tow teams in this game is the two starting pitchers. Arrieta is elite. Martinez is not, and he;s not pitching very well right now. The way Arrieta's been going that should be more than enough.
PICK - CHI CUBS ML (-160 and sprinkle on the RL (-105)
CLEV @ CHI WS
Corey Kluber is experiencing a rollercoaster season thus far. In 4 of his 9 outings, he's performed poorly, allowing 30 hits and 19 earned runs in 20.2 innings. In his other 5 outings, all quality starts, he's allowed 21 hits and 8 earned runs in 38,2 innings. The difference is night and day, and there's no rhyme or reason to the discrepancy. Kluber has sandwiched a complete-game shutout of the Tigers and his 4-2, 7 inning gem against the Red Sox, at Fenway, around a pair of outings against the Astros and Twins in which he gave up a combined 12 hits, nine earned runs and six walks over 9.1 innings. Go figure?
Jose Quintana had his 7 consecutive quality starts streak stopped against the Royals in his last start, as he allowed 4 earned runs in 6.1 innings of a 4-1. Still Quintana has 7 quality starts in 9 outings and excepting is last start, he hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of the others. He's also allowed only 1 HR all season.
Quintana has the better WHIP and ERA, while Kluber has the better metrics. Kluber strikes out a few more and Quintana walks a few less. Kluber doesn't allow a lot of HRs, but Quintana doesn't give up any, and Quintana's strand rate is a little better. These pitchers appear evenly matched. The only question is, which Kluber will we get?
When we look at these two bullpens, we find they're both very good and fairly close.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
5
|
7
|
11
|
4
|
73.3%
|
75.60%
|
17
|
1.28
|
3.81
|
3.76
|
4.07
|
0.228
|
0.277
|
White Sox
|
5
|
4
|
13
|
7
|
65.0%
|
78.20%
|
34
|
1.15
|
2.62
|
3.56
|
3.76
|
0.211
|
0.265
|
The Indians have the better save %, but everything else leans CHI, so we'll give the White Sox a little edge here.
Whe we look at these two offenses, we find that they're both very mediocre.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
3.8
|
10
|
98
|
14
|
0.313
|
17
|
White Sox
|
-9.1
|
15
|
96
|
16
|
0.312
|
19
|
Both offenses are pretty average, but CLEV is slightly less so.
The offenses are both mediocre and the bullpens are both solid and fairly close. Kluber and Quintana are also very close on paper, but also very different. Quintana is a model of consistency - 2 or less earned runs in 8 of 9 outing and 7 quality starts. Kluber has been as mercurial as they come - he's either very good or not good at all. Which Kluber will we get today? I have no idea. So I'm not playing a side. I think at least one of these two has a great game and possibly both.
PICK CLEV @ CHI WS UNdER 7.5 (-110)
SD @ SF
You wouldn't know it, by looking at his 2-6 record, but James Shields really hasn't pitched that badly. He's produced 7 quality starts in his 9 outings. In his 2 "non Quality" starts he went 7 and 6 innings and allowed 4 earned runs in each. Walks have been a problem for Shields, but in his last 2 starts, he has struck out more than a batter per inning while issuing only1 walk. That's huge for him, because his walk rate was way too high in the early going (3.38 per 9 IP).
By contrast, Jake Peavey's 1-5 record is an accurate reflection of how poorly he's pitched this season. In his 9 outings, he's put up only 2 quality starts and he allowed at least 4 earned run in 6 outings, and 5 or more in 4.
Sheilds may not be great, but he's a lot better than Peavey has been.
When we look at these two bullpens, it's clear the Giants have the stronger pen.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Padres
|
8
|
6
|
12
|
8
|
60.0%
|
73.50%
|
27
|
1.38
|
4.16
|
3.90
|
4.23
|
0.240
|
0.291
|
Giants
|
7
|
4
|
14
|
5
|
73.7%
|
71.30%
|
27
|
1.29
|
3.97
|
3.69
|
3.98
|
0.252
|
0.297
|
The Giants have a significantly better save rate and the better WHIP, ERA and metrics.
When we look at the two offenses, the Giants are much more potent
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Padres
|
-46.6
|
27
|
73
|
28
|
0.276
|
29
|
Giants
|
1.7
|
11
|
102
|
9
|
0.317
|
13
|
Offensively, the Giants are well above average, while the Padres are clearly a bottom feeder.
Based on offense, the pick would be SF. Factor in the bullpen edge and it's still SF. However the big equalizer is the starting pitchers. Shield has been better than generally believed and Peavey has been awful. I think SD will get to Peavey, everybody else has. Could Peavey turn it around? Maybe, but I'm not prepared to bet on it. This is straight fade of Peavey. Until I see some concrete evidence to the contrary, I think he's done so at plus $
PICK - SD ML (+118) (should have bet it this more at + 139)
ARIZ @ PITT
Rubby De La Rosa has had a pretty good season in Arizona so far. He's started 7 games for the Diamondbacks and he's had 4 quality starts in his last 5 outings. His last scheduled start was skipped because he had some nagging injuries, particularly to his triceps, groin and a blister on his hand. De La Rosa has been missing more bats this year while not sacrificing his control.
I don't really trust Rubby De La Rosa but I really don't like Jeff Locke. Yes, he has produced 5 quality starts in his 8 outings, but 2 of the were against the offensively challenged Reds and his most recent one was against the Braves, the worst offensive team in baseball. To be fair, the other 2 were against the potent Cardinals and against the Rockies at Coors. Among Locke's problems are the fact that he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts (31 in 45 innings), and that he walks almost as many (23) as he strikes out.
Across the board, De La Rosa's numbers are better.
When we look at these 2 bullpens, we find both are mediocre.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Diamondbacks
|
7
|
8
|
10
|
3
|
76.9%
|
72.50%
|
17
|
1.40
|
4.06
|
3.91
|
4.17
|
0.256
|
0.314
|
Pirates
|
5
|
5
|
17
|
4
|
81.0%
|
73.10%
|
21
|
1.47
|
4.33
|
4.35
|
4.73
|
0.256
|
0.295
|
he D'backs do have the better ERA and metrics, but the Pirates have a little better save rate so we'll call it even.
When we examine the offenses, we find that both have potent offenses.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Diamondbacks
|
7.4
|
8
|
102
|
9
|
0.333
|
7
|
Pirates
|
29.8
|
4
|
116
|
3
|
0.342
|
3
|
The Pirates are higher rated, across the board.
Both teams have potent offense and mediocre bullpens. Based on the numbers, De La Rosa is the better pitcher and at plys $.
PICK - ARIZ ML (+108)
TOR @ NYY
Edge - Nova & NYY
When we look at the two bullpens, it's really no contest. The Yankees have a deadly combination of relievers for the seventh, eighth and ninth. This could be the best bullpen in baseball.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Blue Jays
|
4
|
13
|
12
|
7
|
63.2%
|
76.90%
|
16
|
1.32
|
3.79
|
3.53
|
4.05
|
0.254
|
0.298
|
Yankees
|
8
|
6
|
13
|
2
|
86.7%
|
76.00%
|
18
|
1.06
|
3.27
|
2.60
|
3.10
|
0.212
|
0.276
|
Edge - NYY - Big
When we look at these 2 offenses, the Blue Jays are average, but the Yanks are below average
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Blue Jays
|
-8.3
|
14
|
97
|
15
|
0.315
|
14
|
Yankees
|
-15.1
|
20
|
90
|
22
|
0.303
|
23
|
Edge - TOR
This picks is pretty simply. The Yankees have the better starting pitcher and the better pen. The TOR offense is nothing special, but better than the Yanks. Good pitching will shut down offense, more often than not. All The Yanks need is 5-6 oinnings from Nova and at + $
PICK - NYY ML (+102)