For what it's worth, yesterday turned out to be OK. Following a very good 8-3 on Sunday, and with a smaller slate of games, we expected some regression, and we got it, finishing 3-2.
On the plus side, MIA came from behind and won late getting us a ML W. KC jumped all over MINN and Nolasco early. It 6-2, then came a rain delay. My biggest prayer was please don't postpone the game. Fortunately they resumed play and KC won handily giving us out 2nd ML W. In the afternoon game, COL/PITT went into the 9th 6-2. I needed another run. Fortunately COL gor a meaningless run in the top of the 9th and we got a W on the ober 8.5.
The Nats and Gonazalez got hammered by the Mets and we were deaf early for our sirs L, and PHIL lost a close one, as Velasquez just didn't have it a gave up a couple of leads.
On to today. I'm off to NYC to see my cardiologist in a few minutes and won't be back until mid to late afternoon, so no detailed write ups today, just the stats and a few co,mments.
TB @ MIA
Jake Odorizzi hasn't pitched badley but, he's now given up 5 HRs in his last 9 nnings. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate has stalled out badly since his 10 K season debut against these same Jays. He's struck out four or fewer hitters in five of his eight starts and has just eight strikeouts in total over his last three outings. both are a little concerning.
Tom Koehler hasn't pitched badly, but he walking way to many 25 in 42 innings and that's gotten him into problems. In his last start, for the 2nd straight outing he's allowed five walks.
Edge - TB
When we look at the bullpens, TB looks to have a small edge.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rays
|
9
|
6
|
11
|
4
|
73.3%
|
80.80%
|
19
|
1.14
|
3.55
|
3.54
|
3.84
|
0.221
|
0.246
|
Marlins
|
6
|
7
|
17
|
5
|
77.3%
|
77.20%
|
28
|
1.40
|
3.56
|
4.00
|
4.34
|
0.243
|
0.298
|
The Rays have the better W-L record, strand rate, WHIP, metrics and BAA and BABIP. MIA has the better save rate and ERA, but everything is close - Edge TB
When we look at these two offenses, again it's extremely close.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
10.3
|
7
|
106
|
8
|
0.320
|
11
|
Marlins
|
-1.8
|
13
|
100
|
12
|
0.324
|
9
|
The Rays are a little better an run creation and the Marlins get on base more often. We'' give a very small edge to TB
Thes two teams are very close offensively, in the bullpen and even in starting pitching. The difference is that Odorizzi is still better than.I don't completely trust either pitcher, bit I trust Odorizzi more right now.
PICK - TB - ML (-115)
I'm back from NYC and here are 7 PM games. TB held on for the W this afternoon.
TOR @ NYY
RA Dickey has simply become too hittable in his old age, unable to fool hitters with that knuckleball often enough anymore. Dickey still turns in strong starts here and there, but at this point, he's become too inconsistent to trust. Dickey's typically been homer-prone, but he'd actually been doing a good job limiting them early on this year, with just five in his first 48 frames. In his last outing however, he gave up 5 runs (4 earned) on 8 hits -- 3 of which were homers -- over s6 innings in a loss against TB.
After a slow start in his first 2 outings, Nathad Eovaldi has completely turned it around. Those 1st 2 outings results in 13 hits and 9 earned runs in 11.2 innings. Since then, Eovaldi has tossed 5 quality starts in 6 outs and 3 in a row. He's allowed on 15 earned runs in 37 innings during that stretch.
Edge - Eovaldi & NYY - Clear
When we look at the two bullpens, it's really no contest. The Yankees have a deadly combination of relievers for the seventh, eighth and ninth. This could be the best bullpen in baseball.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Blue Jays
|
4
|
13
|
12
|
7
|
63.2%
|
76.90%
|
16
|
1.32
|
3.79
|
3.53
|
4.05
|
0.254
|
0.298
|
Yankees
|
8
|
6
|
13
|
2
|
86.7%
|
76.00%
|
18
|
1.06
|
3.27
|
2.60
|
3.10
|
0.212
|
0.276
|
Edge - NYY - Big
When we look at these 2 offenses, the Blue Jays are average, but the Yanks are below average
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Blue Jays
|
-8.3
|
14
|
97
|
15
|
0.315
|
14
|
Yankees
|
-15.1
|
20
|
90
|
22
|
0.303
|
23
|
Edge - TOR
This picks is pretty simply. The Yankees have the better starting pitcher and the better pen. The TOR offense is nothing special, but better than the Yanks. Good pitching will shout down offense, more often than not.
PICK - NYY ML (-131)
NYM @ WASH
Matt Harvey has really struggles this season. He has only produced 3 quality starts in his 9 outings and has failed tao make it through 6 innings in 6 of the 9. In his last 2 outings, he's allowed 19 hits and 14 runs (11 earned) in 8.1 innhigs.
By contrast, Stepehn Strasburg is having a great season. His 9 outings have produced 7 quality starts. Even in his 2 non quality efforts, Strasburg has gone over 7 innings both times, and allowed only 4 earned runs in each.
Edge - Strasburg & Nationals
When we look at the two bullpens, we find they are both very good and very evenly matched.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mets
|
4
|
4
|
16
|
3
|
84.2%
|
81.20%
|
32
|
1.11
|
2.33
|
3.03
|
3.42
|
0.207
|
0.279
|
Nationals
|
6
|
6
|
13
|
4
|
76.5%
|
82.60%
|
24
|
1.11
|
2.57
|
3.26
|
3.71
|
0.217
|
0.280
|
Mets
|
4
|
4
|
16
|
3
|
84.2%
|
81.20%
|
32
|
1.11
|
2.33
|
3.03
|
3.42
|
0.207
|
0.279
|
The Mets have a slightly higher save rate and the slightly better ERA and metrics. Everything else is so close, that it's not worth mentioning. We give a very slight edge to the Mets.
When we examine these 2 offenses again it's very close,
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
1.1
|
12
|
101
|
11
|
0.318
|
12
|
Nationals
|
-11.6
|
18
|
94
|
18
|
0.315
|
14
|
The Mets do have an edge in "Offensive Runs Above Average" and "Weighter Runs Creates +" So we'll give the Mets the offensive edge.
The Mets do have a small offensive edge and maybe a very slight bullpen edge, but the Nats have a bigger edge at starting pitcher. Strasburg is pitching like a Cy Young candidate, While Harvey is struggling. Harvey does has the raw talent, and that's what makes this pick a little risky. However even if both pitchers were in top form this would be close. Harvey's far from it. I'm riding Strasburg again.
PICK - WASH - ML (-160)
COL @ BOS
Jorde De La Rosa is coming off the disabled list (groin) and hasn't pitched in a major league game in almost a month. In 5 outings before his injury, De La Rosa only had 1 quality start. In his 4 starts, he allowed 30 hits and 23 earned runs in 20.1 innings. De La Rosa struggled early during his rehab assignment, He calmed down during his most recent rehab start with Triple-A Albuquerque, managing to tally seven innings of work. Although he only walked 2, he still had some control problems, as only 59 of his 94 pitches went for strikes.
It's been an inconsistent first month and a half for David Price. He has produced 5 quality starts in his 9 outings, but he's also been shelled 4 times. However, since apparently correcting a mechanocal flaw in his delivery, has strung together 2 back to back quality starts for the first time this season.
Price may have been inconsistent, but De La Rosa's been mostly bad.
When we look at the two pens. COL's not bad, but BOS is clearly better
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rockies
|
7
|
5
|
13
|
5
|
72.2%
|
70.70%
|
23
|
1.34
|
4.32
|
3.77
|
4.05
|
0.256
|
0.305
|
Red Sox
|
6
|
6
|
12
|
3
|
80.0%
|
75.90%
|
25
|
1.25
|
3.12
|
3.47
|
3.88
|
0.218
|
0.290
|
Except for the W-L record, BOS sweeps the board.
When we look at these 2 offenses, we find BOS has the best offense in baseball
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
-23.2
|
24
|
91
|
19
|
0.336
|
5
|
Red Sox
|
58.7
|
1
|
128
|
1
|
0.363
|
1
|
This one's clear. BOS has the best offense in baseball, the better bullpen and the much better starting pitcher.
PICK - BOS RL (-130)
ARIZ @ PITT
Shelby Miller's have an awful season for Arizona. He's 1-5 with only 1 quality start in his 9 outings. Miller has allowed 48 hits and walked another 25 in 40.2 innings. He's also walked almost as many as he's fanned (27). Miller took the loss against the Yankees in his last start, allowing three runs, 10 hits and two walks while striking out five over 5.2 innings. The damage could have been much more severe, given the number of baserunners he allowed. It was Miller's fourth loss in his last five starts.
Francisco Liriano hasn't had a particularly good season either. He does have 4 quality starts in his 8 outings and one very bad effort v the Cubs. The other 3 could best be described as mediocre. Liriano has produced 3 of the quality starts (and the 1 clunker)in his last 4 outing, so at least he's trending in the right direction.
Liriano hasn't been all that good, but compared to Miller, he's Clayton Kershaw.
When we look at these 2 bullpens, we find both are mediocre.
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Diamondbacks
|
7
|
8
|
10
|
3
|
76.9%
|
72.50%
|
17
|
1.40
|
4.06
|
3.91
|
4.17
|
0.256
|
0.314
|
Pirates
|
5
|
5
|
16
|
4
|
80.0%
|
73.10%
|
21
|
1.47
|
4.33
|
4.35
|
4.73
|
0.256
|
0.295
|
The D'backs do have the better ERA and metrics so we'll give them a very slight edge.
When we examine the offenses, we find that both have potent offenses.
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Diamondbacks
|
7.4
|
8
|
102
|
9
|
0.333
|
7
|
Pirates
|
29.8
|
4
|
116
|
3
|
0.342
|
3
|
The Pirates are higher rated, across the board.
Both teams have potent offense and mediocre bullpens. However, the difference between Liriano and Miller is huge. Liriano's been inconsistent, but Miller's been awful. Theis pick is a straight fade of Shelby Miller.
PICK - PITT ML (-161) and OVER 8.5 (-105)
CLEV @ CHI
Starting Pitchers
Tomlin's been pretty good sand lucky, but Chris Sales has been elite.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
5
|
7
|
11
|
4
|
73.3%
|
75.60%
|
17
|
1.28
|
3.81
|
3.76
|
4.07
|
0.228
|
0.277
|
White Sox
|
5
|
4
|
12
|
7
|
63.2%
|
78.20%
|
31
|
1.15
|
2.62
|
3.56
|
3.76
|
0.211
|
0.265
|
The Indians have the better save %, but everything else leans CHI.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
3.8
|
10
|
98
|
14
|
0.313
|
17
|
White Sox
|
-9.1
|
15
|
96
|
16
|
0.312
|
19
|
Both offenses are pretty average, but CLEV is slightly less so.
I've been riding Sale all season and I'm not about to stop here. Eventually, I'll lose, but I've cashed every time with Sale. So with a slightly better bullpen and a slightly weaker offense
PICK - CHI WS ML (-172) and UNDER 7.5 (-101)
BALT @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
Tillman has every edge except for walks.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Orioles
|
12
|
3
|
15
|
8
|
65.2%
|
82.90%
|
20
|
1.24
|
2.67
|
3.68
|
3.92
|
0.232
|
0.284
|
Astros
|
4
|
8
|
10
|
6
|
62.5%
|
71.00%
|
29
|
1.10
|
3.79
|
2.79
|
3.11
|
0.232
|
0.286
|
These 2 pens look pretty even to me - No Edge
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
13.2
|
6
|
110
|
5
|
0.334
|
6
|
Astros
|
-10.5
|
17
|
96
|
16
|
0.311
|
20
|
HTN offense is average. BALT offense is top 10.
I don't see any real edge for HTN in this game.
PICK - BALT ML (-115)
SD @ SF
Starting Pitchers
Samardzija by a landslide.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Padres
|
8
|
5
|
12
|
8
|
60.0%
|
73.50%
|
27
|
1.38
|
4.16
|
3.90
|
4.23
|
0.240
|
0.291
|
Giants
|
7
|
4
|
14
|
5
|
73.7%
|
71.30%
|
25
|
1.29
|
3.97
|
3.69
|
3.98
|
0.252
|
0.297
|
Nothing leans in OAK;s favor - SF
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Padres
|
-46.6
|
27
|
73
|
28
|
0.276
|
29
|
Giants
|
1.7
|
11
|
102
|
9
|
0.317
|
13
|
\
Another landslide - SF
PICK - SF RL (-105)
OAK @ SEA
Starting Pitchers
Karns much better than Graveman
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Sv %
|
LOB%
|
HLD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Athletics
|
7
|
3
|
13
|
4
|
15.2%
|
71.90%
|
17
|
1.24
|
3.97
|
3.29
|
3.64
|
0.247
|
0.300
|
Mariners
|
9
|
4
|
13
|
8
|
61.9%
|
81.60%
|
32
|
1.01
|
2.63
|
3.05
|
3.52
|
0.186
|
0.234
|
OAK has the better Save %, but everything else SEA
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Athletics
|
-23.2
|
24
|
87
|
25
|
0.294
|
26
|
Mariners
|
15.2
|
5
|
109
|
6
|
0.324
|
9
|
A mismatch - SEA
PICK- SEA ML (-165