For what it's worth, yesterday was OK, not great, but OK. Coming off a very good day, we finished 4-3.
The Cubs scared the hell out of us. The game was tied 1-1 going into the 7th. The Braves loaded the bases with no outs and somehow managed to not score anything. It seemed like the Cubs were dodging bullets all day. Finally in the bottom of the 8th, the Cubs broke it wide open thanks to a grand slam by Sczur, turned a 2-1 Cubs lead into a 6-1 Cubs W, cashing our RL pick. God bless that pitiful Braves pen.
Break up the Phillies! Break up the Philllies! Coming off their 3 game (3 shutout) sweep of the Nats, we fully expected a letdown and with Corey Kuber v Adam Morgan we fully expected...well you know what we expected. Instead, Cleveland got 3 in the top of the 5th and promptly gave them right back in the bottom of the inning helped in part by a huge error by CLEV 1st baseman, Napoli. The game stayed thaat way until the 11th when a Howard HR won it for the Phils and making our double ML/RL pick a double L. Another nice W for this offensively challenged Philly team and kudos to the Philly pen on another clutch performance.
We took our other loss when Masahiro Tanaka gave up a 2 run lead in the 7th allowing the Red Sox to tie the game and "Big Papi" David Oritiz crushed a 2 run blast to beat the dreaded Yankee pen.
Three Ws came our way when the Mets beat up on Jake Peavey and crushed the Giants, the Nats finally scored some runs, took a 5-2 lead in STL and held on for dear life, and a 5-4 win, and in the late game, King Felix tossed a gem and beat KC 1-0.
Saturday is always a busy day for me, so as I make a pick, I will post it, Here's the first one.
WASH @ STL
I like Joe Ross. I've been riding Tyson's little brother each time he's pitched and I've cashed each time. The problem is that I also like Jaime Garcia.
Ross has 2 legitimate starts this season. In the first one, v MIA he allowed 5 hits and 1 earned run in 7 innings. He fanned 5 and walked 2. In his next start @ Phil, he went 7.2 innings, allowing 5 hits and no runs. He again struck out 5 and walked 2. The Nats decided to play it safe and skip Ross earlier this week after he was forced to leave his 3rd start after two innings with a blister on his right middle finger. Ross has allowed just 1 earned run this season in 16.2 innings, while striking out 10 and walking 5. His WHIP (0.84) and ERA (0.54) are excellent. His advanced ERA metrics, however, are on the high side (4.43 SIERA and 4.25 xFIP). His 161 BAA and 196 BABIP are also outstanding. His 93.3% strand rate, however, won't last. The league average is about 72%, and 77-78% is considered elite.
As good as Joe Ross has been, Jaime Garcia has pitched pretty well himself. The only real problem he's had is staying healthy, but when he is, he's very good. He's started 4 games for the Cards. His 1st start was his weakest. He went 6 innings, allowing 5 hits and 4 earned runs with 6 Ks and 2 walks. His 2nd start was a gem, a complete game 1 hit shutout of the Brewers, in which he fanned 13 while walking only 1. In his last two starts, Garcia has issued seven walks and has failed to record an out in the sixth inning both times. He only allowed 5 earned runs over those 10 innings and he did fan 10. In his last start, it appeared that he just ran out of gas in the sixth inning, as he allowed a double and a triple to open the inning before he was yanked. He needed 92 pitches to record 15 outs and gave up four extra-base hits. Still, Garcia owns a solid 29:11 K:BB in 25 innings thus far with a 1.16 WHIP and a 3.24 ERA. His advanced ERA metrics (3.24 SIERA and 2.88 xFIP) and equally good and over a full run better than Ross'. His K rate 0f 28.2% is about 12% higher than Ross and his BAA at 196 is not quite as good as Ross, but still superd. His strand rate of 65.5% is a little below average.
IMO opinion we have two excellent starting pitchers who are very evenly matched.
Both bullpens are good and amazingly close. The Nats are a little better in Save % (90% v 83%) and strand rate 82.5% v 78.8%) as well as ERA (2.64 v 3.09) and WHIP (1.05 v 1.27). The Cards have slightly better advanced metrics (3.55 xFIP v 3.77). I call it a draw.
Offensively is where the Cards have a big edge. While the Nats are slightly below average (#24 BA, #21 OBP and #19 SLG) in the major offensive categories, The Cards are top 3 (#3 BA, #3 OBP and #1 SLG). The Cards also average over 2 more runs per game that the Nation.
Yesterday, I thought the Nats were in a real good spot. They were coming off three embarassing shutout losses to the Phils at home, while the tired Cards were playing their first game at home after a long road trip. Today, I think that advantage is gone. The starters are very evenly matched, as are the respective bullpens, but the Cards have the much better offense and they should be fresher That should be enough. PICK - STL ML ( -136) and UNDER 7.5. (-110)
SF @ NYM
Matt Cain is not having a good season. After recording a quality start in his first outing, he's since allowed 13 runs in 15 innings over his last three starts. In his last start, he allowed four runs on 10 hits and two walks while striking out for over 5.2 innings against the Marlins. HIS WHIP stands at a lofty 1.67 and his ERA at a whopping 6.43. His advanced metrics (4.68 SIERA and XFIP) aren't a whole lot lower. His BAA is 310 and His BABIP is 362. Age and injuries have combined to turn from the near elite pitcher of a few years ago to a journeyman who barely holding his spot in the SF rotation.
Jacob deGrom, on the other hand, after having his start to 2016 delayed by both a back injury and family medical emergency, is still having a pretty good spring, following his breakout 2015 campaign. He's only pitched 11.2 innings, and he has allowed 13 hits, but only 2 earned runs. He's also fanned 9 and has yet to issue a walk or give up a HR. deGrom currently sport a good 1.11 WHIP and a miniscule 1.54 ERA. His advanced metrics (3.21 SIERA and 2.99 xFIP) are a little higher but still very good.
At this stage in their respective careers, this is a pitching mismatch. deGrom is very good and young enough to get even better. Cain is not very good and appears to be getting worse.
When we compare the two bullpens, we find that the Mets have 5 more hold, 4 more saves and 1 less blown save. The Mets also have the far better save % (80% v SF'sdismal 57%) and a 4% higher strand rate as well. The Mets pen also boast the better WHIP (1.23 v 1.38), the better ERA by about 1.5 runs, and the better advanced metrics by about a full run.
The Giants have the better offense, but not by that much (BA by about 20 pts, OBP by about 20 pts, and SLG by about 10 pts). The Giants also average about 3/4 of a run more per game. (and all that was before last night's Mets romp.) However, when you take into consideration how badly the Mets O started of the year, the case could be made that right now (especially after last night) the Mets O is as good as or possibly even better than SF's.
The starting pitcher matchup is a mismatch, the Mets have the much better bullpen and right now their offense is at least as good as, and possibly better than SF's. PICK - NYM ML (-163)
It's been a very busy afternoon. As a result, I won't have the time for my usual detailed analysis. orry about that. Here's the very condensed version - for what it's worth.
TOR @ TB
Happ's got the better WHIP & ERA, but Archer's got the better advanced metrics (all under 3) and K rate. I trust the metrics as a better way to evaluate performance.
Rays have better pen - better save % 71% v 58%, better strand rate 83% v 75% and better WHIP & ERA, Metrics lean slightly to TOR, but very slight. Edge Rays.
Jay have the better O - middle of the pack, while Rays are bottom tier
Good Pitching usually shuts down good hitting
PICK: TB - ML (-123)
CHI WS @ BALT
Latos has been great 24,1 IP and 2 ERs. Metrics say he'll regress.
Gausman made 1 start 5 IP and 1 ER, Last year's numbers comparable to Latos', maybe slightly better, but Latos had a really bad year.
Pens look pretty even but Sox have much better save % (82% v 56%) and better metrics.
Os have more firepower, top 10 offense. Sox are below average.
Games looks pretty even. I won't lay -165 with Gausman. Ill take a shot on Latos at very good price.
PICK - CHI WS - ML (+156) and UNDER 8.5
CLEV @ PHIL
Eickhoff's been very good for Phils. Low wHIP (1.15) a all metrics in low 3's
Bauer making 1st start for CLEV. Last year as a starter 1.31 WHIP with ERA and metrics in the 4s.
Bullpens are very close. Tribe has better WHIP but PHIL has better metrics.
Offense is Tribe's only edge. CLEV is middle of the pack and PHIL is bottom tier.
Phils on a roll - Break up the Phillies
Bet on good PHIL pitching to shut down mediocre CLEV offense & don't expect weak PHIL to score a lot either. IMO wrong team favored
PICK - PHIL ML (+113) and UNDER 7(a real gamble on this so many things could go wrong)
CIN @ PITT - Real simple
Alfredo Simon sucks - everybody knows it - his numbers are awful WHIP 3.00 ERA in double figures and metrics 4-5
Liriano hasn't pitched well, but his numbers are much better than Simon's.
Pirates pen better across the board *Reds have 25% save rate, 65% strand rate WHIP over 1.5 ERA over 6 and high 4 low 5 metrics - They suck too
Offense - PITT top 5, Reds below average
I'm fading Simon & CIN pen big time
PICK - PITT - RL (+105) + OVER 8 (+105)
NYY @ BOS
Pineda's been shaky since 2nd half of last year. This year high WHIP (1.59) & high ERA (6.95) Surprisingly, metrics only in low 3s.
Porcello wasn't healthy last year - big reason he was so bad. He's healthy now and pitching well - 0.94 WHIP and 3.51 ERA. Metrics all in the 2's.
Yanks have the better pen but BOS pen is good too. Not as good but pretty good.
Yanks offense really struggling - bottom 3rd of league.
BOS offense is clicking - top 10 and in several categories top 5
PICK - BOS ML (-122)
MIA @ MIL
Chen pitching very well right now - solid WHIP - solid ERA & solid metric
Anderson really strungling in MIL - high WHIP - ERA & metrics all in mid 4 range
Chen's numbers better across the board
MIA has the better pen - better save % - WHIP - ERA - Metrics
MIA has the better O - top half of league v bottom half for MIL
MIA better across the board\
PICK - MIA ML