2015 MLB Record
101 – 99 for +2.65 Units
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#1: Texas Rangers -135
Ian Kennedy is coming off a 118-pitch, 5 BB outing and now will face a Rangers team that hit 2 HR’s and scored 4 runs off him in 4.1 innings back in July. Kennedy has been pitching well in the 2nd half of the year, but he is prone to outings where he walks a ton of batters and with his high HR-rate (1.8 per 9 on the year), that’s a very dangerous combination. On the other side we have Hamels, who is rounding into form with the Rangers with 20K’s over his last 21 innings. He hasn’t allowed a HR in 3 straight starts and is displaying vintage form right now. Padres rank 24th offensively against lefties and I expect them to struggle in this one offensively. Texas has a strong advantage with their starter and their offense in this one, and I love their chances of getting it done tonight.
#2: Colorado Rockies +100 (1st 5 Innings Only)
In 3 starts against Colorado this year Chase Anderson has a 9.0 ERA with 16 ER’s, 7 BB’s, and 5 HR’s in 16 innings of work. His SIERA numbers in those outings were: 4.4; 5.9 (@ COL); and 4.6. In addition, Anderson has been a worse pitcher on the road (4.7 FIP; 14% K-rate; 1.2 HR/9) than at home (3.4 FIP; 18% K-rate; 0.7 HR/9). Facing this Rockies team for the 4th time AND pitching at Coors isn’t the best spot for Anderson. In addition, Arizona will see Jon Gray for the very first time in his career. His 6.0 ERA isn’t indicative of his performance so far as his 4.1 FIP is a much better gauge to use. Interestingly, Anderson has the same FIP number on the year. I’ll keep Colorado’s terrible BP out of this one and hopefully it takes Arizona’s hitters a few times through the rotation to pick up Gray’s stuff. By then, I expect the Rockies to plate a few runs off Anderson.
Good Luck