Coach Fletcher’s Monday Free Pick
Monday, July 6
Tampa Bay at Kansas City
The Pick Kansas City -XXX BOOK
Colome Trending in Wrong Direction – Good News For KC
Kansas City has an opportunity to finish the first half strong and cement their first place status. Alex Colome, starting for Tampa Bay, may be just what KC needs. The Royals salvaged a four game split with Minnesota yesterday winning 3-2. Runs have been hard to come by for KC who only scored 9 runs in the series. KC hitters are hoping that Alex Colome’s slide will continue.
The Royals Have the Pitching Edge Though the Numbers Aren’t Impressive
Ray starter Alex Colome has not won a game since May 21. The Rays are 0-8 in his last 8 starts. He’s allowed 8 runs and 12 hits in his last 13 innings. He may be what the doctor ordered for the offensively starved Royals.
- Colome: 3-4, 4.70 era ; Volquez: 8-4, 3.48 era
- Colome: 0-3, 4.81 era, 1.50 whip in last 7 ; Volquez: 4-1, 4.46 era, 1.39 whip in last 7
- Colome: 3.60 era last 3 ; Volquez: 5.19 era last 3
- Colome: 3.06 era on road ; Volquez 3.21 era at home
- Colome: Rays 0-8 in last 8 starts ; Volquez: Royals 11-5 in last 16 starts
- Colome: Never faced Royals ; Volquez 2-0, 2.66 era lifetime vs Rays
Rays Bullpen: 3.92 era overall, 3.24 on road ; Royals bullpen 2.05 era overall ; 1.74 at home
While the numbers are fairly close to a wash here, the fact that the Rays have gone 0-8 in Colome’s last 8 starts makes a good case for the Royals. Couple that with the fact that the Royals have won 11 of Volquez’s 16 starts and you have to give the pitching edge to the Royals. KC also possesses the best bullpen in MLB and if the game is close their pen can bail them out.
Both Teams Are Having Trouble Putting Runs on the Board
The Rays scored 8 runs on 9 hits against the NYY on Sunday. That’s the most runs they have scored in a game in two weeks. They had scored 34 runs in their previous 12 games. The Royals have scored 37 runs in their last 12. The season stats, however, are in KC’s favor.
- Rays averaging 3.6 rpg ; Royals averaging 4.2 rpg
- Rays averaging 3.6 on road ; Royals averaging 4.2 at home
- Rays hitting .240 overall, .239 on road ; Royals hitting .269 overall, .273 at home
- Rays 28th in MLB batting average ; Royals 2nd in MLB batting average
- Rays hitting .236 vs RHP ; Royals hitting .275 vs RHP
- Rays are 28-33 vs RHP ; Royals are 33-19 vs RHP
- Rays averaging 3.4 rpg vs RHP ; Royals averaging 4.6 rpg vs RHP
- Rays averaging 3.4 rpg last 7 ; Royals averaging 2.4 rpg last
- Rays 28th in MLB hits per game ; Royals 4th in MLB hits per game
- Rays 26th in MLB hits per game ; Royals 14th in MLB hits per game
- Rays 24th in MLB slugging % ; Royals 12th in MLB slugging %
- Rays 23rd in MLB on base % ; Royals 12th in MLB on base %
The numbers for the last 7 games don’t necessarily favor the Royals. But the season numbers are heavily in favor of the Royals.
Odds and Ends
- Rays 43-41 overall ; Royals 46-33 overall
- Rays Minus 0.1 run differential ; Royals Plus 0.6 run differential
- Rays 3-7 on Mondays ; Royals 7-3 on Mondays
- Rays 28-33 vs RHP ; Royals 33-19 vs RHP
- Royals 10-3 vs Rays last 3 years
- Royals 5-1 against Rays at KC last 3 years
Coach’s Conclusion:
The Royals are battling to stay in first place and the Rays are battling to stay in 2nd place. Nobody will take it easy in this series leading up to the All Star break. While the numbers don’t provide an overwhelming edge for the Royals, there are enough significant factors that point to a KC victory. The difference in batting average is significant. The difference in wins and losses and batting average versus RHP is significant. And the Royals have dominated this series over the last 3 years. If the game is tied going into extra innings or even if it is close, the KC bullpen is a major plus. I will be taking the Royals to win today.
The Pick Kansas City -XXX BOOK