Coach Fletcher’s Saturday Premium Pick
11:05 am San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
The Pick Washington Nationals +102 1* 5 Dimes
Bumgarner vs Strasburg – Who Has the Edge?
On the surface, this game doesn’t look much like a pitcher’s duel. The world champion Giants invade Washington with World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner on the bump. The Nats counter with Steven Strasburg who is making just his 3rd start since exiting the disabled list.
Strasburg Has Been Strong in Return
Stephen has been sharp since his stint on the DL due to a neck injury. He has pitched two games, 12 innings total, giving up only 2 runs and 8 hits. Strasburg has fanned 15 in the 12 innings. That is a sure sign that Strasburg may be better than ever. He’s also 3-1 all-time versus SF. His arm should be plenty fresh since he had 3 ½ weeks off while on the DL. His fastball was clocked at a crisp 99 mph in his last start and threw 113 pitches. Those are exceptionally positive signs.
Taking a Look at the Pitchers
Giants, Bumgarner Nationals, Strasburg
** 8-4, 2.99 era, 1.04 whip ** 5-5, 5.50 era, 1.54 whip
** 3.64 era on road ** 4.07 era at home
** 2.35 era last 3 ** 2.08 era last 3
** 2-4 lifetime vs Nats, 2.60 era, 1.077 whip ** 3-1 lifetime vs SF, 2.91 era, 1.265 whip
There is no doubt that Bumgarner is a top of the line pitcher. He has only allowed 2 runs in each of his last 3 starts. In Strasberg’s case, you really need to disregard the starts he made prior to his recovery from the neck injury. He tried to pitch through it with no success, but he has returned with a vengeance striking out 15 batters in 12 frames since his return.
The Giant Bullpen is Gasping for Air
A strong bullpen has been the norm for the world champs. But things have gone south. The once stout pen has a 7.20 era in their last 7 games. Closer Santiago Casilla will be out a couple of games with a “tired arm” after giving up a 3 run bomb Wednesday in the 9th inning as the Marlins topped the Giants 6-5. The Giants brought up Josh Osich from Triple A Sacramento to round out the pen.
Giants Bullpen Nationals Bullpen
** 3.56 era overall ** 3.42 era overall
** 3.69 era on road ** 2.49 era at home
Losing the bullpen battle could be crucial in a game like this where runs will be hard to come by. The Giants’ pen is struggling and they have lost their closer. The Nats’ pen is strong and closer Drew Storen has had plenty of rest throwing only 1 inning (yesterday) since June 28. Storen’s era is 2.03 with 24 saves.
Offensively the Teams Are Nearly Dead Even
Giants Nationals
** 4.3 runs per game; 4.0 runs allowed ** 4.4 runs per game; 4.0 runs allowed
** 5.0 runs per game on road ** 3.9 runs per game at home
** 4.3 runs per game vs RHP ** 4.3 runs per game vs LHP
** 8th in MLB slugging % .408 ** 10th in MLB slugging % .403
** 4th in MLB on base % .330 ** 8th in MLB on base % .323
These team are hard to separate offensively. The Giants probably deserve the edge due to their excellent numbers on the road.
Odds and Ends Favor the Home Team
Giants Nationals
** 42-39 on the year ** 44-36 on the year
** 21-19 on road ** 23-14 at home
** 31-32 vs RHP ** 11-6 vs LHP
** 5-7 last 12 ; 0-4 last 4 ** 9-3 last 12 ; 2-2 last 4
Coach’s Conclusion:
This is by no means a gimme, but the way the teams have been playing as of late, you have to give the edge to the home Nationals. Strasburg can dominate with his fastball and he may have to in order to best Bumgarner. But the Giants are on a 4 game slide and are without their closer. They are still missing key man Hunter Pence with a bad wrist. The Nationals have had success with left handers and hopefully that will translate well against Bumgarner. We will take Strasburg and the Nats in this one.
The Pick Washington Nationals +102 The Greek
Thanks and good luck!