Free plays have been incredibly streaky this season, and right now they’re definitely in a down cycle. I’ll look for a Total to deliver a winner today.
YANKEES (Eovaldi) @ ANGELS (Shoemaker)
Take: UNDER 8
At first glance, this looks like a game where there could be some scoring. Nathan Eovaldi is clearly capable of getting blown up. Matt Shoemaker has been vulnerable to the long ball, so that’s a red flag of sorts if one is looking to wager one of his starts will stay on the low side. But I see some factors that indicate the pitchers could do well here.
There certainly hasn’t been much in the way of offense in the first two games of the series, with just eight runners crossing home plate thus far. The Yankees bats have gotten really quiet over the past few games. The Halos haven’t plated more than four runs in any game going back to June 19, so they’re absolutely not in rake mode right now.
Don’t overlook one other key here, and that’s the time the game will be played. This is a rare last afternoon start time for the Angels, with the game scheduled to start at 4:05 PM. That means shadows and glare, which is something hitters absolutely don’t like but pitchers definitely love. There should be a few innings here where it’s tough for the batters to pick up the baseball coming out of those shadows, and if that results in a few zeros going up on the scoreboard, it’s mission accomplished in terms of garnering an advantage on this play.
I’m not sure what the Angels will do late if they’re protecting a slim lead as there’s a good chance the Smith/Street combo will get the day off. Nevertheless, with neither team hitting and the conditions playing a potential importing role, I’m willing to bet that this game will stay Under the number.