2015 MLB Record
40 – 39 for +0.32 Units
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#1: Washington Nationals -125
Gio Gonzalez has a 4.5 ERA but his 2.9/3.2/3.4 FxS (FIP/xFIP/SIERA) indicate a much better pitcher than that. Actually he’s my 22nd ranked starter this season. In addition he’s absolutely dominated the Reds in his career, logging a 1.1 ERA and 0.7 WHIP against them in 5 starts. Obviously most of those don’t matter since they were so long ago, but last year he held Cincy to 1 run and 4 hits in 7 innings while registering 8 K’s and they ear before he once again allowed only 1 run and 1 hit in 8 innings, while striking out 7. He’s coming off an excellent start and I expect another strong showing today.
The real reason for this play though isn’t Gonzalez, but more of a fade of Raisel Iglesias. I typically don’t like fading pitchers who are facing a particular team for the very first time in their careers but I’ll make an exception here. Iglesias is a pitcher out of Cuba, where he was primarily used as a ‘reliever’ before coming over to MLB. That’s a ‘red flag’ in itself as the guy is already 25 years old, and if he was used as ‘reliever’ in Cuba, can he be expected to succeed right away as a ‘starter’ in the majors? I’m not so sure. Iglesias’ repertoire primarily consists of a four-seam fastball and a slider, with a changeup mixed in as well. The Nationals rank 5th offensively against the ‘fastball’ and 7th against the ‘slider’. They also rank 6th overall offensively against right-handed pitchers. During Iglesias’ last start he managed to last only 3 innings while throwing 84 pitches. He did have 6 K’s in the outing but also issued 3 BB’s. It’s hard to assume that he’ll become more ‘efficient’ against the 7th most patient lineup in the majors this year (7th in BB-rate). I doubt that Iglesias lasts past the 5th inning in this game, and then Washington will get to tee-off on Cincy’s 21st ranked bullpen, which is even worse if you take Chapman out of the mix. I think the Nats have a strong shot of a convincing win in this one.
#2: Texas Rangers +116
The fact that the Rangers have seen Miley about 10 days ago is an important factor here. He pitched a great outing holding the Rangers to 2 ER’s in 7 innings while striking out 7. That outing was at home, and now the rematch is on the road. Miley has a 5.0 xFIP on the road this year, his 4.8 SIERA ranks 127th in the league, and his 5.5 K/9 rate is extremely mediocre. To make things worse, he’s facing a Rangers offense that ranks 5th against lefties this season and is the #1 ranked offense in the month of May. I like the chances of Rangers plating some runs off Miley in this one. On the other side, Texas is bringing up their top pitching prospect Chi Chi Gonzalez. Though he hasn’t been ‘great’ in the minors this year, the kid was Ranger’s best pitcher last season and is a first rounder, so we know he has skills. He is going up against Boston’s 24th ranked offense today and I like his chances of pitching well at least for the first few times through the order. Too much value on the Rangers to pass up at this price at home.
#3: San Diego Chargers -110
Charlie Morton has been a pretty good pitcher for the Pirates over the last few years, but I can’t pass up these odds on Tyson Ross at home. He is my 17th ranked starter, hasn’t allowed a HR in 5 straight starts, and has registered 33 K’s in the last 31 innings of work. Win or lose, these odds are way too low on Ross in his home park.
Good Luck