3 plays for Wednesday. (2 Totals/ 1 side) . Please note all early games.
Play on Game #967/968 Royals/ Yankees UNDER the TOTAL (1:05 PM EST)
Chris Young has been the bright spot for the Royals rotation this season with a 0.75 WHIP. He has only given up 1 ER this month and the UNDER is 3-1 in his 4 starts for the month of May. Members of the Yankees roster are hitting a combined .181 vs. Young. A-Rod, Beltran, Headley, McCann, and Teixeira are a combined 10-for-63 (.158 BA). For the Yankees, Pineda will take the rubber looking to bounce back off two shaky starts. Pineda still sports a 1.14 WHIP on the season and has a 27K/ 2 BB mark for the month of May which tells me this guy is still throwing strikes. I fully expect him to limit the amount of hits he gives up this afternoon and look more like the dominant guy he has been in the early part of the season. Pineda has a 2.95 ERA in 3 day starts with a 26K/ 1 BB mark. At home, he has a 2.78 ERA in 5 starts with a 38K/ 2 BB mark. This guy will be in good form this afternoon, I am confident.
The Yankees have struggled hitting the ball in day games as they have a .215 batting average. A-Rod, Teixeira, Beltran, and McCann are all hitting under .222 in day games. While the Royals are a good hitting team, their averages do fall off slightly in day games and on the road. I really think they will have a tough time scoring runs this afternoon off of Pineda. This is a pitching rematch from a few weeks ago as the Royals won 12-1. Young was sharp only giving up 1 ER in 5.2 IP. Pineda got banged up for 10 hits and 5 runs, but again Pineda has the best K/BB ratio in Baseball with almost 15 strikeouts to every walk.
Trends:
The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the Royals L4 during game 3 of a series.
The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the Yankees L5 during game 3 of a series.
The UNDER is 6-1 in Muchlinskis L7 games behind home plate vs. New York.
Play on Game #969/970 Mariners/ Rays UNDER the TOTAL (1:10 PM EST)
We have a great pitching match-up set up for the UNDER this afternoon with Archer and King Felix. Archer brings a 1.08 WHIP into today's game and a 1.40 ERA in 4 day starts this season. After a couple of rough starts to begin the month, he has gotten back on track his last 3 only giving up a total of 4 ER in his last 3 starts. Archer has now given up 2 ER or fewer in 7 of his 10 starts this season. We have seen a final score of 7 or fewer runs in 7 of his 10 starts this season also. King Felix has been his usual dominant self this year with a 0.94 WHIP as the Mariners have won 9 of his 10 starts this season. I don't see any weaknesses for him today either. We have seen a final score of 7 or fewer runs in 8 of his 9 starts this season and a final score of 5 or fewer runs in 5 of his 9 starts this season.
The UNDER is 4-1 in King Felix's L5 starts vs. the Rays. Last season he had a 22K/ 1 BB mark vs. the Rays in 2 starts. For Archer he saw the Mariners once last season and went 6.1 innings and did not allow a run. The Mariners and the Rays rank towards the bottom on the AL in runs scored in day games as well. This is an early start for the Mariners as they are a West Coast team and I have to think their bats will not be awake either. For the Rays, they have not had any long-term success off of King Felix. Cabrera came off the DL but he is 3-for-23 career vs. Hernandez. The Rays only have 1 HR off Hernandez in 145 total AB's, and only 10 RBI's in 145 AB's. That basically equates to 2 RBI's every 29 AB's which could be the majority of this game.
Trends:
The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Hernandez L16 starts with 4 days of rest.
The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the Rays L5 games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Play on Game #973 Detroit Tigers w/ Simon (3:35 PM EST)
I like Detroit in this game. A few things to point out: Detroit is 16-7 (70%) in day games this season while Oakland is 4-13 (24%) in day games. Detroit is 12-8 on the road, while Oakland is 6-14 at home prior to last night's game.
Pitching matchups: Simon for the Tigers has a 2.67 ERA and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 6 of his 10 starts. Kazmir for the A's has a slightly higher ERA and the A's have lost 6 of his last 7 starts. Kazmir has already walked 22 batters this season and has given up 6 HR's which are both more than Simon. The Tigers are 2-0 in Simon's 2 day starts this season while the A's are 0-2 in Kazmir's 2 day starts.
Trends:
The Tigers are 6-1 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
The Tigers are 10-4 (71%) in their L14 during Game 3 of a series.
The Tigers are 6-2 in their L8 vs. a left handed starter.
The A's are 0-8 in Kazmir's L8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The A's are 8-23 (26%) in their L31 during Game 3 of a series.
Play on Game #517 Houston Rockets +10.5 (9:00 PM EST)
To me, this is a simple pick. The Rockets are 3-1 ATS vs. the Warriors in this series. They had a shot at winning Game 2 @ Golden State and really were in Game 1 the majority of the game without Dwight Howard. Let's forget about Game 3 as that was a tough one for the Rockets after blowing their chance to win Game 2. The Rockets were in this same situation vs. the Clippers. They know how to play when their backs are against the wall as they are now the first team to win four straight postseason games when facing elimination since the 2006 Suns. Harden will be playing with confidence tonight after pouring in 33 points in the 2nd half on Monday. I look at the box score and the Warriors did not play bad. They actually made 20 3 pointers and still lost. I say this because I don't think they can shoot 44% again from the 3 point line and make 20 threes. This is the NBA and the pressure is on the Warriors. The Rockets were in this same position vs. the Clippers and I think they can handle the pressure.
Key Trends:
The Rockets are 10-1 ATS in their L11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
The Warriors are 2-8 ATS in their L10 home games.