The Royals used their classic formula of good pitching, good defense, timely hitting and a monster bullpen to get the W last night and take a 2-1 lead in the series. Today, the Royals look to take command of the series and I think they get it done here.
Kansas City ML +115
The pitching match-up is Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) for the Royals and Ryan Vogelsong (8-13, 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). As I look at this match-up, I cannot begin to fathom this line, but I am eternally grateful for it. Vargas has been the better post-season pitcher so far (1-0, 2.38 ERA, 0.79 WHIP vs Vogelsong's 0-0, 5.19 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). Plus, is there any reason to bet against the KC bullpen at this time? The Giants have hit Vargas in the past, to the tune of a .338 average. Earlier this year, he did surrender 9 hits in 5 innings to the Giants in a 4-2 Royals win. But Vogelsong has been hit by the few Royals that have seen him. And he clearly has not been sharp lately. In addition to Vogelsong's post-season numbers, he was 0-4 with a 5.53 ERA in September. Vargas was 1-3 in September with a 6.57 ERA, but he clearly has turned around his performance in October.
Overall, the Royals look like a team playing with confidence and the Giants to me look like a team that is playing on its heels. I'll go with the team that has the pitching, confidence and timely hitting to get it done again today.