Lost on the under 7 in the reds Indians game last night as the Reds mustard up 1 run and Alfredo Simon decides to have his worst start of the season and the game lands on 8. On to today, my approach to capping is look at the slate of games, look for a game that stands out, then break down the numbers and cap the game from there. At first glance today nothing really jumped off the page, but the more and more I look at the Astros, Phillies game the more and more I like it. Let's break it down a little bit, both teams are at the point basically just playing out the season with nothing to play for besides pride. As I look at keuchel's numbers as he's been good lately but it doesn't tell the full story that he has a 1.15 ERA over his last five starts at home BUT he's just 1-3 with an ERA over 6 on the road in his last five road starts. The Phills are coming off a game where Strasburg shut them out. There's always a sense of pride factor that should show up in a game after being shut out, and it's safe to say things will be easier tonight for them, with the way Keuchel pitches on the road. The Phillies line up hasn't produced this year, but they're guys on that team very capable of putting up numbers. What might be the most surprising thing here is how hot the Astro bats are right now, averaging 6 runs per game over the last five games. With all totals set 8-9 in those games. Here I think you're getting a soft number at 7 1/2 likely because of how well Keuchel has been lately. But as I said earlier he's a different pitcher on the road. With both teams being out of it allows both managers to experiment a little bit if they want, knowing that a loss won't hurt that much, for example in the Sunday nights game with the Red Sox, if the Red Sox were in the playoff hunt Farrel would have pulled Bucholtz after he gave up the 4 but like John Kruk said, they have nothing to play for and didn't want to have to use pen guys, basically by leaving him out there, says figure it out yourself. I can see that type of attitude from both managers tonight, as they experiment and tweak for next year, possibly leaving a starter or reliever in too long trying to see what he can get out of him, or how he handles adversity. A couple other stats here. The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 9 road games. The total has gone OVER in 14 of Phillies last 21 games. The total has gone OVER in 7 of phillies last ten home games. There are some more stats and reasoning that supports the Over here but you get the gist of it. Not to mention the Phills will being sending out kendrick who has an ERA over 8, yes I said 8. In his last five starts. This game has OVER written all over it.
ASTRO'S @ PHILLY OVER 7 1/2
GIANTS @ BREWERS OVER 8 (Play Added) I know this is really late but have been watching the line all day and just fired away