I made a 2 unit bet on under 10.5 (-115) at 5 Dimes. 4 Runs that is all? What a gift from the books!
Obviously Atlanta has been an under machine as mentioned before by others, their game went over yesterday thanks to their bullpen collapse in the bottom of the 8th against the D-Backs.
In this game I see two struggling offenses and regardless of the altitude I am getting 10.5 with these two teams. I will fire on this total for a few reasons:
- Atlanta has gone to the under 63% of the time this season, 22-36-3.
- Off of no rest they are 63% to the under, 18-30-3
- After a loss Atlanta is 70% to the under, highest percentage of any MLB team off a loss this season. 8-19-1
Colorado is beat up and their offense has really gone down hill over the last two weeks. They could not get anything going against the Dodgers. With some key guys injured, their outfield is also thin.
As a home underdog, Colorado is 0-5 to the under this season.
You also get the good angle in Atlanta facing a pitcher they have not seen before in Christian Bergman. Bergman has risen all the way through Colorado's system after he was a 24th-round pick in 2010 out of UC Irvine, which reached the College World Series this weekend for the first time since he helped the Anteaters get there in 2007.
The right-hander went 4-4 with a 3.84 ERA at Triple-A Colorado Springs this season. Even more impressive was his 2.04 ERA in four home starts at the same kind of high altitude he will have to deal with Monday.
For all those reasons I think this is tremendous value on the under.
The fear of course would be the Colorado bullpen becoming involved:
They have the worst ERA in MLB over the last 7 days, over the whole season, and at home.
Good luck to all whether you follow or fade!
Adding mini total Under 5.5 runs first 5 innings, 1.5 units. (Winner!)