Analysis: Here's one I'm not likely to be swayed on. Cumpton is the only variable here. He did pitch well in his one start at PNC, and in AAA only allowed 6 earned runs in 40 innings, and doesn't walk many. Clearly the day off from the West Coast travel coupled with the Brewers not only playing last night, but in the B2B four games against the Twins (which also involved travel) they used tons of their bullpen and it hasn't been pretty. And the Pirates pen HAS been pretty, since over the last week (which includes the road series against the Dodgers) they've combined for an ERA of 1.46 with a WHIP of 0.77. At home, Pittsburgh is still three games over .500, while on the season the Brewers have a decent road record, but aside from the two in Minnesota, haven't BEEN on the road. And in that previous road trip, they lost all three series' to Atlanta (can't hit), Miami, and the Cubs. The Pirates hit Lohse reasonably well, so worst case scenario the Brewers score early, the Pirates won't leave Cumpton in as a punching bag, and everyone is rested.
Some of you may know this, but I know many don't. Some of you watch this very closely, some don't care, or some don't have time. Anyhow, I answered a question for a friend of ours as to whether I was worried about the money on the Brewers, and this was my reply so I thought I would share it with everyone. The fact is the tickets are on the Brewers, yet the line has moved towards Pittsburgh. That's a great example of what people refer to as RLM, or reverse line movement. It isn't always right, and that's what I refer to when I say we're following the money. The "all or none" thing is another matter. In this case and in most cases, I leaned to the Pirates for the above reasons BEFORE this line started moving this way, so it was really just confirmation for me, which is what we LIKE to do and have happen. Remember, even the best in the world win 55% over time, so that means 45% they're wrong, and if I really think they are, then I'll bet it anyway. Remember this, too, that SOMEONE has to handicap for "them" too, and that someone is no sharper than we are in many cases. Then there are those that just place bets or sell plays right before tipoff/first pitch that do nothing BUT follow money, which isn't all that difficult in many cases. Just sharing. And there is RLM on the Reds/Cueto game too. Almost enough to play the Phillies or at least the Phillies RL without even looking, and without even looking and knowing what time it is, my guess is that the lineups just came out which magnified an already existing condition, which also means in THIS case that perhaps someone, somewhere, knew someone was sitting. It could be Pena catching instead of Mesoraco, I don't know.
06/06/14 |
Make Pick
|
953 |
Milwaukee |
-115/-105 |
-1.5(145) |
-110 |
o 7.5 (100) |
5775 |
88% |
74% |
95% |
|
7:05PM |
954 |
Pittsburgh |
7½u-115 |
1.5(-165) |
100 |
u 7.5 (-120) |
12% |
26% |
5% |
|
That 74% of 5775 TICKETS are on the Brewers RL. The 88% is on the Brewers -1.5 (which someone would do because it's +150 or so. This is strictly ticket count, and you really need about 3-4K for it to be considered a factor. Obviously early on there's not many bets so it doesn't take much $ to make a line move. With over 5000, that's fairly straightforward. Most "people that come home at 5 PM" would see "Brewers" and "Lohse" and the "who is that Cumpton kid that got killed last time" and assume it's easy. Perhaps it is, but over time it's those people that end up on Pregame or somewhere else trying to get their money back........