Slow and steady she goes. The bullpens have hurt us and will likely continue to do so. As I have stated time and time again.....seriously consider the "minis", especially early in the season. Several winners left on the board yesterday. "Live" plays are also a great resource.....much more so if you are physically watching the game.
This first play is just an estimate as I do not have the "true" number yet. Just a heads-up that I believe it closes at 5....pretty close. It is actually 4½ /-115.
Baltimore Orioles Over 4½ (-120) ~ Injury-prone McGowan has been a money-maker on the road over very limited action, however it appeared to be more than just a "hitch" in his delivery in his initial start. LHB have been his Achille's Heel and I don't think that Davis/Markakis will be the remedy. Lefties were 8/16 (all the hits he allowed were from the left side) with a couple for extra bases in that first outing. Davis has not seen him, but likely causes problems. Although he kept the Yankees in the yard (who hasn't) though his 2.2 IP......at Camden.....I doubt it tonight. May upgrade depending on how many LHB are in the O's line-up.
Toronto Blue Jays/Baltimore Orioles Over 8½ (-120) ~ Pay the juice before it hits 9. Tillman has been a top-notch pitcher lately, but most of the Toronto boppers have taken him deep.....they may again. FWIW ~ I do think that 9 is easily eclipsed, I just hate sitting through 4 hours of ball to wind up with a push. This one is likely tied at fours (or something similar) at some point. Tillman, coming off a better than usual April start (for him) likely still has a bit of a delicate psyche and may have problems pitching out of trouble if he gets into it? Little success in Balty for the Jays and inconsistent O's hitting will keep me off a side. Note that due to weather conditions, I am keeping this one at a single unit play and may add the "mini"....
Houston Astros/Texas Rangers Under 8 (-115) ~ Feldman returning to Arlington to face Darvish? Strong wind projected to be blowing in? This one would be a double play without the bullpens in play. At Under 4, I'll definitely add the mini here. How much would I love the hook on this one......
The Royals (-122) look damn fine, especially with that black-hole (Mauer) in the middle of the Twins line-up? Gibson had a splendid outing, but did only go 5. The LHB should get to him today. He did have some control issues (4 BBs).....all to LHBs. If Moustakas can pull his head outta his ass, he may have a decent night? Sorry, misread that line initially. The RL is +125, which we all know is not going to happen. Jury still out here.......perhaps just the mini?
BoSox bats have begun to stir facing southpaws....likely not good news for CC?
San Francisco Giants -1½ (+135) ~ I believe this to be my first posted RL of the season. Giants slicin' and dicin' lefties to the tune of a near .400 OBP. Expect that De La Rosa will be the next victim. Bum toeing the rubber just gives me additional confidence. The Rox can hit anyone, but have hit RHP at > 30 points higher. The Over may be worth a peek, but the Giants Over 4 (-105) is probably the better look?
Los Angeles Angels -1½ (+130) ~ No reason to believe that Skaggs cannot follow-up his last 8 inning gem with another. The Mets have been nothing short of feeble (.196 BA vs LHP) and as long as he can command the zone and not run up his count, we should see little (if any) of that dreaded Halos' bullpen. He only threw 95 pitches through 8 IP, so a complete game is not out of the question here.
I am assuming that the Mets' TT will be 3½? If so, I will add that Under........
Miami Marlins/Philadelphia Phillies Under 6½ (+105) ~ An ugly digit for sure, especially with AJ on the hill, but with miserable weather conditions in the forecast, it may be worth taking that extra minute to look at it? The mini at 3/3½ may be a better plan as both squads have used up some bullpen recently. I like the Fish in the spot, but do not want to lay -120 on the road. So.......the side play will be;
Miami Marlins (+115) ~ Series ~ A very winnable visit for the Fish. I cannot ever recall a series price this low on the Marlins on the road. There is a reason.....I'll count on Alvarez and/or Eovaldi to take the other one.
Chicago White Sox -1½ (+125) ~ Yup, another southpaw and a good one in Chris "Stringbean" Sale. Until they start hittin' 'em, I'll keep fadin' 'em. The -155 ML is too rich for me, but a fine parlay add. Tribe now owns a lofty OBP in the .240's vs lefties. I expect this one gets ugly.....fast. Batter up!
Milwaukee Brewers (-110) ½ unit ~ Wee Wily Peralta, although an enigma, is capable of shutting down anyone. If the Crew are to make any noise in the NL Central it starts right here. These are bullpens I don't mind seeing. The Brewers' recent history vs LHP will minimize this play.
Oakland A's (+137) ~ Gonna give me this number with Oakland seeing The King for the 2nd time in a week.....I'll take it. I expect Milone to contain the M's LHBs while the A's go to work on Felix. I expect him to suffer from a lack of RS here.....about the same outcome as last week (3-1), but going the other way. At 6½, Jimmy Johnson closing will be enough to keep me off the total.
Chicago Cubs/St Louis Cardinals Under 3½ (+105) Mini
AL Home Teams -2 (-110) ~ With 7 AL-hosted games on tap, there seems to be a good deal of value here with, potentially, Baltimore, Chicago and LAA winning big? I see KC, Texas and Oakland in tight games win or lose. I'll also consider Boston/NY another close one....either way. As one game can (and does) make or break these plays, as always keep it small. I really do not see any visitor winning big in AL parks tonight.
Small-Fry Parlay at +1325;
Arizona Diamondbacks -101
San Francisco Giants -171
Baltimore Orioles -140
Chicago White Sox -160
Los Angeles Angels -160