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MLB Monday........

Thread Starter MLB Monday........
Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
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Off another 3* winner with the Braves and a winning weekend, we just move on. Thanks to the new long term people for trusting us.

Miami-Washington: I had an immediate lean to the over because Jackson throws strikes and just gives it up at times, but this IS the Fish, and it appears to me that Zambrano may be losing it. I still lean slightly to the over a bit, and simply cannot fade Washington right now.

Arizona at Cincinnati: The D-back just aren't hitting, and although Arroyo had has two good games, they've been against weaker offenses in big parks. This could be different, especially given the late game Sunday. I'd like to find a way to take Arizona here, but will wait to see if Kubel plays. The Dodgers and Brewers had figured out how to hit Miley, but here he will have had about ten days off. Although his R/L splits aren't tainted one way or the other, he has given up 8 of his nine bombs to RHH. That cheap price almost begs one to take the Reds, so for now I will lean D-backs slightly.

St. Louis at Milwaukee: You do have to like that the Cardinals play late on Sunday and the Brewers needed very little of their bullpen, not that their bullpen is something to brag about. Lynn on the road is nowhere near Lynn at home, and I have to think that although he beat the Brewers back in April, that was then and this is now. Hard not to like Fiers and his tiny WHIP against a team that hasn't seen him.

Pittsburgh at Colorado: Hard not to think the now it's the Pirates who might be a but under valued. Things change quickly and the Pirates are 14-9 against left handed starters. Although Francis has bee great since coming back from the DL, but since when did he become THAT good, and with the Rockies not really pounding the ball and having a clear bullpen disadvantage I do lean to the road team here. I think the Pirates ran into a hot team in Milwaukee and the Rockies can't beat a spiraling team in the Phillies. 

Houston at San Diego: I really hate to take teams in their first game back, but there is no chance I could take Houston, even though they played the Giants tougher than most expected. I think that may have been more the Giants weak offense than anything else. Houston hasn't see Wells and they are about 9-35 on the road. I have backed Happ in spots, but San Diego is simply playing better and their pen at home is much better, as you'd expect.

Phillies at Dodgers: Blanton appears to be slipping back to the Blanton of old a bit, and he's allowing opponents to hit .297 against him on the road. Yes, the Phillies beat Colorado, but again I think that's as much a function of the Rockies playing poorly than anything else, hence lean to the Dodgers, especially in the big park. Eovaldi hasn't faced these guys and he's not one to allow teams to string together hits and keeps the ball in play, so unless the Phillies find the Fountain of Youth overnight this is the Dodgers or nothing. They should rebound from the Padres loss, and perhaps there were just too many expectations with Kemp coming back.

Angels at Detroit: I do love to fade Santana and clearly they Angels used a ton of bullpen in New York, but by the same token the Tigers are also in a first game back. However, Porcello has been coming around, and the Tigers clearly have the bullpen edge. The whole key here is whether Porcello can keep the Angels under a million, because I do think the Tigers score plenty. Doubt I could put my money on the Angels after the almost-meltdown against Benoit and Velverde, all other things being equal.

Toronto at Yankees: New York went through a ton of arms over the weekend and the Jays did not, so I'd love to find a way to back Toronto here. I certainly won't lay -180. I know it does happen and personally I do do it on occasions (a lot of them actually) but not here. Not against a team that knows Hughes so well. He's got some revenge going on for an earlier season loss in Toronto, but they didn't exactly light him up. The big problem I have is that Alvarez has never pitched in Yankee Stadium. Maybe he gets through the order early, but I guess I do lean to that big square over a bit.

Cleveland at Tampa Bay: Two teams going in the wrong direction after the break. Two weeks ago taking the Indians against any RHP was almost automatic, and taking McAllister was as well. He (McAllister) just pitched against the Rays and didn't give up a run about a week ago, so you'd think it's the Rays who make the adjustments, and are perhaps under valued after the Boston loss(es). I do like that when Cobb is on he keeps the ball on the ground, and lean to the Rays a bit. 

Baltimore at Minnesota: Two more teams going south since the break, with two young and promising pitchers that the other team hasn't seen. After the weekend you think the first team to three might win, and clearly the Orioles two of three at home to the Tigers has to have them questioning their relevance at the moment, while the Twins ran into a buzz saw in Oakland. I do like that the Orioles have a winning record against left handed starters, but just don't think I could take them against Diamond. There's just not enough value in the short number on the road for me. Lean under, however.

Seattle at Kansas City. Almost by default I lean to the over just because it's Sanchez who will give up runs, and allthough the Royals lost to the White Sox, they had tons of base runners and chances. And the Royals have hit Vargas and have been hitting LHP better of late. I just cannot back someone with a WHIP of 1.94 no matter who he is pitching against. Haven't looked at the weather patterns for tomorrow yet, but I lean to the over unless there's a cold front coming through Kauffman. 

OK, done. Anyone (anyone) that can use this and what I'll add to it tomorrow, have at it. Also a free play coming your way and those have been doing us well, too. Out.

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I made it in green because we have been winning. That's also probably why JD discounted them..............



[edited by: Dave Essler at 7:04 PM (GMT -7) on Sun, Jul 15 2012]

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dennistyler
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Griff
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Good stuff Dave! I'm loving the Jays/Yanks over 10.... The Jays bullpen might give up that # by their self.....

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Appreciate the insights Dave.  Be well.

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Nice work, Dave. I like many of the same. GL!

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ljyankee4
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As always TY Dave

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cbelongia
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Good stuff, keep bangin" books!

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Stephen Nover
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Really good stuff Dave. Don't always agree, but respect your research and opinions. Thanks for posting your thoughts. BOL.

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Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
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Stephen Nover

Really good stuff Dave. Don't always agree, but respect your research and opinions. Thanks for posting your thoughts. BOL.

Had to chuckle a bit. If we all agreed this would be easy..................headed out your way again soon and hoping to catch up on some things. Keep up the solid work.

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

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Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

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