For what it's worth, the postseason is not easy to handicap . Our handicapping system is based on finding mismatches. In the postseason, the teams are all food, and much closer. The edges are often so minor that it's often close to a crap shoot than anything else. That why we cut all our wager amounts in half. That said, we still enjoy the challenge so here goes. After a crappy start to the postseason, we are current 12-0-1 in our last 13 picks, including 2-0 yesterday with our 1st 5 and ML Under plays! We know! It won't last, but we'll just take one day at a time We're overdue for a correction, but here's hoping it lasts another day because We have an opinion on the side and total. BOL all.
On to today's game.
CHI @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
Edge - CHI
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
W %
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cubs
|
1.20
|
3.56
|
3.51
|
3.72
|
22
|
19
|
53.7%
|
38
|
15
|
71.7%
|
75.3%
|
0.208
|
0.262
|
Indians
|
1.24
|
3.45
|
3.55
|
3.71
|
28
|
20
|
58.3%
|
37
|
11
|
77.1%
|
75.3%
|
0.231
|
0.288
|
Edge - CLEV slight
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
61.6
|
2
|
|
98
|
3
|
|
0.315
|
3
|
|
27.7
|
3
|
Indians
|
33.8
|
4
|
|
102
|
6
|
|
0.327
|
6
|
|
23.4
|
6
|
Edge - CHI small
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
|
|
|
Cubs
|
88.6
|
1
|
Indians
|
7.9
|
9
|
Edge - CHI small
Jake Arrieta won the NL Cy Young Award in 2015 with a 22-6 record and a 1.77 ERA. This season, he posted an 18-8 record, with 17 quality starts in his 31 outings (54.8%). Arrieta also had 8 starts in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs (25.8%). In 2 playoff games, Arrieta is 0-1 with a 1.18 WHIP, a 4.91 ERA and 1 quality start. Opponents are hitting .273 against him compared to .194 in the regular season. Arrieta allowed 6 hits, but just 2 earned runs in a no decision at SF in the NLDS. However The Dodgers got to him for 6 hits and 4 earned runs in a loss in the NLCS.
Trevor Bauer finished thge regular season with a 12-8 record and 16 quality starts in his 28 outings as a starter (57.1%). Bauer also had 8 starts in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs (28.6%). In his 2 playoff starts Bauer has no record with a 1.50 WHIP, a 5.06 ERA, but has only lasted 5.1 innings. Opponents are hitting .286, compared to .248 during the regular season. Bauer's start in Game 3 of the ALCS ended in the 1st inning. His hand uncontrollably gushed blood and ended his start after 21 pitches and 0.2 innings. However he also lasted just 4,2 innings, allowing 6 hits and 3 earned runs in an ALDS start against BOS.
When we look at the regular season, Arrieta gets the edge, and when we look at the playoffs, while neither has pitched well, Arrieta still gets the edge.
Both teams possess excellent bullpens, While it appears that CLEV has a slim edge here, I should point out that Fan Graphs did a very nice piece Monday, which suggest there is very little edge to be had here. According to author Jeff Sullivan: " I’m not entirely clear on just how much of an advantage the Indians really have... I went ahead and made some guesses about the upcoming bullpens. I gave Cleveland and Chicago seven relievers each, and then I plugged in their actual ERAs and FIPs, and their projected ERAs and FIPs. The last step was weighting the numbers, since the seventh reliever won’t pitch nearly as often as the first or second guy. Weighting requires its own guesses, but I assigned a number between 1 and 7 to each reliever. Zach McAllister, for example, got the 1, for Cleveland. Andrew Miller got the 7. I weighted the numbers by these designations.
Stats!
2016 World Series Bullpens
Team
|
Adj. ERA
|
Adj. FIP
|
Proj. ERA
|
Proj. FIP
|
Cubs
|
2.77
|
2.99
|
2.99
|
3.14
|
Indians
|
2.53
|
3.20
|
3.15
|
3.18
|
“Adj.” just means “Adjusted,” which is a different way of saying “Weighted.” The first two stat columns reflect what the relievers did in 2016. The last two stat columns reflect the projections for the relievers. The Indians look better in the very first column, but that’s also arguably the least-important column of the four. If you put everything together, the Cubs bullpen looks like it’s basically as good as the Indians’ unit. That isn’t something you’d necessarily expect, given that conversations we’ve all been having, but it might just be because relieving has been *the* strength of the Indians. The Cubs have had plenty go right, so the bullpen gets less attention.
The Indians’ big flashy advantage is Miller. Obviously. He can come in in any inning, and he can go multiple innings, and we don’t yet know how hard is too hard to push him. Miller has already handled so much of the workload, but based on precedent, that’s unlikely to keep up to such a degree, unless the Indians somehow manage to sweep. Aroldis Chapman is the Cubs’ equivalent, and he’s barely worse than Miller is. He’s just less flexible, and seemingly less durable. But the Cubs have been prepared to use him in multi-inning stints... The numbers say there’s not really a bullpen gap at all."
It should also be noted that CLEV's top reliever tossed 2 innings and 46 pitches yesterday, and Allen pitched another full inning. For CHI, Grimm pitched an inning, Stroop pitcher just 0.2 innings, and Rodon and Wood just 0.1 innings. Aroldis Chapman, CHI's best reliever, didn't pitch at all. That might tilt the bullpen edge slightly to CHI.
Offensively, while both teams are well above average, the Cubs appear to have the better offense.
Defensively, both team are again well above average, but the Cubs are ranked as having the best defense in baseball.
The Cubs do get an edge on offense and defense, and maybe, because of last night's usage a tiny edge in the bullpen. When it comes to these two starting pitchers, I don't completely trust either, but Arrieta looks to have the edge. The Cubs are funny, they either hit a lot, or they don't hit at all. They couldn't hit Kluber last night, but Bauer' s a big step down in class. I expect the Cubs to get to Bauer. The Indians could get to Arrieta as well, but the numbers say that's somewhat less likely, and I will wager on the team that really needs this game more. I also thing either team gets completely shut down so I'm looking OVER as well.
PICK - CHI 1st 5 (-134) ML (-127) 1st 5 OVER 3.5 (-130) and OVER 7 (-120)