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Joined: 11/01/2010
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#30

The optimal bet size for 99.99992% of all bettors is zero.

Joined: 07/22/2009
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#31

WinniBet said:

Thank you, Lloyd - I'm going to check those books out.

Wise.

In addition, unless you're betting against the market (Everyone dealing 3 and you get 3.5), you really shouldn't be fluctuating your bet size.  Almost no one wins, even less know their edge to the point where they can definitively say "this bet is worth more than that one"

[/quote]

Wow, very interesting. 

Does that apply to baseball, too -  where your dealing with odds?

[/quote]


Of course.  If you make a -150 baseball bet, because you feel like the team has a 61% chance of winning, the bet should be doubled with a 62% chance, and tripled with a 63% chance. 

Like I said before, very few can quantify whether or not their bet is +EV, even fewer can determine their edge to a certain percentage. 

[/quote]

Lloyd - I'm not sure I understand the 1st paragraph, but I see your point about the difficulty of definitively determining the edge in relation to the size of the bet.

[/quote]

A -150 bet must win 60% of the time to break even.  So if you felt it had a 61% chance, you would bet it because you think -150 has value.  The point I was trying to make is that when using Kelly, you would double your bet if the bet had a 62% chance as opposed to 61%. You'd triple it if it was 63%.  People will fluctuate between 1-3 units without thinking about how minute the difference needs to be in order to properly fluctuate.  

Since I doubt anyone reading this can accurately predict the percentage that any bet has of winning, it's better to just flat bet 

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