For what it's worth, we had a frustrating day yesterday, finishing 1-2-2 in our posted plays.
Our winner was TOR, as Aaron Sanchez tossed 7 shutout innings and the TOR bullpen held on for a 4-2 W.
Out losers were the Cubs and Reds. We're not sure what surprised us most, that the pitiful White Sox got to Arrieta, or that the Cubs didn't get much off Miguel Gonzalez. We still think Gonzalez is total crap, but we may have to downgrade Arrieta. As for the Reds, we bet the 1st 5 innings to avoid that dreadful Reds pen. What a crazy game. SF got 1 in the 1st. CIN got 4 in the top of the 4th and things looked good. SF got 2 back in the bottom of the 4th to make it 4-3 CIN. Then a 2 run Pagan HR in the bottom of the 5th made us a loser. CIN did come back to win, but it didn't help us one bit.
We pushed on both our other 1st 5 plays COL and PHIL. De La Rosa pitched very well, as we expected that he would, but so did Gallardo, and that's truly amazing. For the life of me I don't understand why major league hitters would have problems with garbage like Gallardo and Miguel Gonzalez. As for PHIL, Hellickson pitched a great game, but amazingly, Cosart pitched almost as well. PHIL at least has the excuse of being a weak offensive team, but still. Gonzalez, Gallardo and Cosart all have good outings on the same day??? Unbelievable! We may have witnessed a true miracle yesterday!
On to today's card, as we try to bounce back.
STL @ NYM
Carlos Martinez Has been incredibly streaky for the Cardinals this season and holds a 6-6 record. He started out the season by tossing 4 straight quality starts. He followed that up with a 5 start stretch in which he failed to record a single quality start, allowing 28 hits and 19 earned runs in 25 innings. That stretch coincided with the period when it became public that Martinez was being accused of transmitting an STD. He has followed that up with his current streak of 8 quality starts in his last 9 outings, in 6 of which he allowed 1 or 0 earned runs.
Noah Syndergaard is having a Cy Young type season. He's 9-4 with 13 quality starts in his 18 outings as a starter. He missed a 14th by just 1 out in his last start, as he pitched 5.2 innings, allowing 1 unearned run, 7 hits and 2 walks while striking out 8 against the Cubs. Syndergaard did need 105 pitches to work his way out of a few jams in his first start since leaving his previous outing early due to arm fatigue. He quelled any concerns about his arm strength as his fastball was clocked at 97-plus mph through of the evening, including one clocked at 100 mph in the 1st inning. In his 43rd game, Syndergaard also reached 300 career K's, making him the 3rd-fastest among active pitchers to do so. Only Yu Darvish, who notched 300 in 37 games, and Jose Fernandez who did so in 42 games, did it faster. He's allowed more than 3 runs just twice all season.
Both of these guys have very good numbers. However, Syndergaard's are just flat out better.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cardinals
|
1.17
|
3.44
|
3.62
|
3.88
|
15
|
13
|
19
|
12
|
61.3%
|
74.80%
|
0.211
|
0.258
|
Mets
|
1.20
|
3.10
|
3.57
|
3.95
|
16
|
11
|
36
|
6
|
85.7%
|
79.50%
|
0.222
|
0.279
|
Both of these teams have excellent bullpens. Based on W-L record Save Rate, and Strand Rate, well give the Mets the edge.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
38.7
|
3
|
|
110
|
2
|
|
0.337
|
2
|
|
15.9
|
7
|
Mets
|
-19.9
|
17
|
|
96
|
15
|
|
0.310
|
21
|
|
9.8
|
17
|
Offensively, the Mets are mediocre, while the Cards are excellent.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
-1
|
22
|
Mets
|
5
|
15
|
Neither team is good defensively, but the Mets are the better defense.
The Cards do have one big edge in this game. They have the much better offense. The bullpens are both good and pretty even with a small edge to NY, the defenses are close with a small edge to NY. The biggest edge the Mets have is the better starting pitcher. Both pitchers have pitched very well, but Syndergaard's the better of the two. The metrics say the same thing, Sydergaard's metrics are about a full run better than Martinez's. I think Syndergard shuts down the Cards and the Mets wub a low soring affair. I got a much better price early yesterday on this one.
PICK - NYM ML (-158) and UNDER 7
COL @ BALT
Chad bettis has been mediocre for the Rockies this season. He does have an 8-6 record, with 9 quality starts in his 20 outings, including each of his last 3, so he's at least trending in the right direction. However he also has 10 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs, including 2 of hi last 5 and 5 of his last 10. So it hasn't been all smooth sailing.
Chris Tillman contunues to surge for the Orioles. He's now 14-2, with 13 quality starts in his 21 outings including his last 4. However, he has also allowed 4 or more earned runs 6 times. After a 3 game slump, Tillman gotten back on track, pitching 7 innings and allowing just 1 run in each of his last 4 starts. Tillman has been relying on the ground ball more than usual this season, with a 1.04 GB/FB and 40.2% GB%.
The numbers say this is a close matchup. Bettis actually has the slightly better metrics, and that's concerning.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rockies
|
1.42
|
4.92
|
3.97
|
4.21
|
12
|
15
|
26
|
13
|
55.7%
|
68.70%
|
0.269
|
0.315
|
Orioles
|
1.30
|
3.08
|
3.95
|
4.17
|
25
|
8
|
36
|
12
|
75.0%
|
79.20%
|
0.239
|
0.291
|
Most of the edges in this matchup go to BALT
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
-41
|
22
|
|
92
|
21
|
|
0.337
|
2
|
|
10.4
|
17
|
Orioles
|
26.6
|
5
|
|
105
|
5
|
|
0.333
|
4
|
|
14
|
10
|
The Orioles are the much better offensive team.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
22.6
|
7
|
Orioles
|
-16.1
|
24
|
The Rockies do have the better defense.
The Orioles have the much better bullpen and the much better offense. The Rockies have the better defense. By the numbers, these two starting pitchers are pretty even. They're both trending in the right direction, but Tillman gas been the more consistent of the two. BALT is very good at home (37-14), and with the better pen and the better offense and a matchup of two decent starting pitchers
PICK - BAL (-180) and UNDER 9.5 (-120)
CHI CUBS @ CHI WS
Kyle Hendricks is having a very good season for the Cubs. He's compiled a 9-6 record, with 10 quality starts in his 18 outings. He's also allowed more than 3 earned runs (4) just twice, and has only given up 3 earned runs over his last 37.1 innings. Hendricks biggest problem has been his inability to go deep into games. He's failed to go 6 innings in 8 of his starts, and has gone more than 6 just 6 times. Hendricks has dominated hitters despite his lack of velocity (his fastball averages less than 90 mph), and has managed to strike out 96 hitters over 111 innings.
James Shields has recovered impressively from the legendarily bad stretch that started his White Sox career, as he's now turned in five consecutive quality starts of six or more innings and two or fewer runs. However, Shields isn't generating strikeouts anymore (24 in 48 IP). Another problem with Shields has been the long ball. Shields has one of the 5 worst home run rates by an active qualified starter. Now, he's pitching at US Cellular Field and in the American League. Petco suppresses homers by 2%. US Cellular boosts them by 8%. Shield has given up 11 in his 9 starts with the White Sox. Shields is also putting more batters on base with walks. He'w alked 24 in his 9 starts for the White Sox, and has walked at least 2 in 7 of those 9 starts. That's not ideal when you're giving up as many long balls as Shields has. In 2015, Shields doubled his walk rate from the prior season. Shields has experienced a 1.4-mph drop in velocity. He’s lost another tick of velocity this year, and is now down more than two miles per hour from where he was in his Kansas City days. Essentially, Shields has lost velocity, and it’s caused him to work outside the zone. But hitters aren’t chasing outside the zone, so he’s giving up walks, and when he’s forced to come inside the zone, he’s giving up homers. With all these issues, it's hard to expect Shields to sustain his streak of quality starts.
Shields still has ugly numbers, while Hendricks' numbers are very good.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cubs
|
1.22
|
3.83
|
3.70
|
4.02
|
12
|
13
|
19
|
10
|
65.5%
|
73.90%
|
0.211
|
0.257
|
White Sox
|
1.46
|
3.62
|
4.07
|
4.22
|
15
|
13
|
27
|
18
|
60.0%
|
75.80%
|
0.251
|
0.313
|
The Cubs bullpen is nothing to write home about, However, it just got a lot better with the acquisition of Chapman. Notwithstanding last night, the White Sox bullpen is still a disaster.
Offense
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
42.7
|
2
|
|
107
|
4
|
|
0.335
|
3
|
|
23.2
|
1
|
White Sox
|
-49.4
|
24
|
|
90
|
24
|
|
0.309
|
23
|
|
5.8
|
27
|
The Cubs have the better offense by a wide margin.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
61.2
|
1
|
White Sox
|
-20.5
|
25
|
The Cubs also have the much better defense
In this game the Cubs have every edge. There is no area where the White Sox have an advantage. I'm doubling down on the Cubs. I think they bounce back big and I think the acqusition of Chapman invigorates them as well
PICK - CHI CUBS ML (-158) and RL (+100)
DET @ BOS
Mike Pelfrey is having his typical awful season. He's 3-9 with just 5 quality starts in his 19 outings as a starter. Frankly that's 5 more than I expected from him. He's allowed more than 4 earned runs 8 times already this season. He doesn't strike out many (47 in 105.1 innings) and he walks almost as many (43) as he fans. He's allowed 142 hits and coupled with his 43 walks, that's 185 base runners in just over 105 innings! Amazingly, Pelfrey has given up just 1 run in 3 of his last 4 outings, but he has been very disaster-prone, thanks to the incredible amount of contact he allows. Pelfrey is still almost always, s an automatic play against for me, and after a rare not awful performance, I just want to fade him more.
Steven Wright has been surprisingly good for the Red Sox. He's compiled an 12-5 record with 14 quality starts in his 19 outings. He has allowed 4 or more earned runs only twice this season. That means that he's definitely keeping the Red Sox in games, and with their offense, that's often enough. However, after tossing 12 quality starts in his first 14 outings, and never allowing more than 3 earned runs, during that time, the young knucklerballer had put together 3 bad outings in a row to end the first half. However, he;s bounced back with 2 quality starts in his last 2 outings. He allowed 3 hits and 3 earned runs in 6 innings of a 5-3 win at NYY. He followed that up with an 8 inning, 4 hit, 2 earned run outings in which he struck out 9, while walking just 1. This season, he’s allowing just a 26.6% hard-hit rate while inducing a 24.2% soft-hit rate.
Wright has much better numbers across the board. His metrics are higher than I would like, but they're still almost a full run better than Pelfrey's.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Tigers
|
1.36
|
4.37
|
3.83
|
4.07
|
15
|
13
|
30
|
10
|
75.0%
|
71.00%
|
0.265
|
0.316
|
Red Sox
|
1.28
|
3.87
|
3.53
|
4.07
|
13
|
14
|
24
|
8
|
75.0%
|
72.70%
|
0.234
|
0.300
|
Both bullpens are above average, but based on WHIP, ERA, SIERA and BAA, BOS gets the edge here.
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Tigers
|
-6.6
|
12
|
|
101
|
11
|
|
0.325
|
8
|
|
9.6
|
20
|
Red Sox
|
94
|
1
|
|
118
|
1
|
|
0.356
|
1
|
|
22.8
|
2
|
The Tigers have a good offense, but the Red Sox have a great offense.
Defense
Both teams have weak defenses, but the Tigers are the weaker of the two.
In this game, in every area where the Tigers are good (offense and bullpen), the Red Sox are better. And in every area where the Red Sox are weak (defense), the Tigers are weaker. Above all else, there's the starting pitcher mismatch, Pelfrey v Writght. I always look for opportunities to fade Pelfrey, and this is another.
PICK - BOS RL (-110)
WASH @ CLEV
Gio Gonzalez is just 6-8, with 10 quality starts in his 19 outings. However, 5 of them came in his first 5 starts. Since then it's been only 5 in his last 14. He's also had 7 outings in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs. Gonzalez has now walked at least 3 batters in 5 of his last 7 starts, and 2 in another. Gonzalez turned in 6 strong innings in his last start, limiting the Dodgers to 1 run on 3 hits and 2 walks with 5 strikeouts in an 8-1 win. This was his best outing in 2 full months, dating back to May 18, the last time he gave up just 1 run in a start. After that game, his ERA sat at 1.86. Now it sits at 4.53.
Danny Salazar is having a great season. He's 11-3 with 10 quality starts in his 18 outings. He missed 3 more by just 1 out. Salazar has allowed more than 3 earned runs just twice all season, and has allowed 2 or less in 13 of his starts. Salazar has now gone at least 5.2 innings and allowed 3 runs or fewer in 8 of his last 9 starts dating back to May 28 against Baltimore. He has now struck out at least 7 batters in 12 of his 18 starts this year, making him one of the most consistent strikeout machines in baseball. With 125 strikeouts in 110.1 innings, his K/9 is now up to a stellar 10.2.
Salazar has the better numbers across the board. His metrics, however, and only about a quarter of a run better, so this is closer that it would appear.
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Nationals
|
1.13
|
2.98
|
3.28
|
3.67
|
13
|
14
|
25
|
8
|
75.8%
|
78.50%
|
0.221
|
0.284
|
Indians
|
1.31
|
3.65
|
3.81
|
4.04
|
13
|
16
|
20
|
10
|
66.7%
|
74.50%
|
0.237
|
0.292
|
The Indians have a good bullpen, but the Nationals have a much better bullpen.
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Nationals
|
-3.4
|
11
|
|
98
|
13
|
|
0.321
|
13
|
|
16.2
|
6
|
Indians
|
23.4
|
6
|
|
102
|
9
|
|
0.325
|
8
|
|
18.3
|
4
|
Both offenses are above average, but the Indians rank a little higher. However, CLEV does not hit lefties as well (rank#19), as WASH hits righties (Rank #12). So this is really very close and maybe even.
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Nationals
|
40.1
|
4
|
Indians
|
27.8
|
6
|
Both of these defenses are very good and very evenly matched.
In this game, WASH has the better bullpen, while the offenses and defenses are pretty even. CLEV gets the edge in the starting pitcher comparison, but the metrics say this is close as well.
PICK - CLEV ML 1st 5 innings (-155) and UNDER 8 (+100)
NYY @ HTN
CC Sabathia was having a better season than I expected early on. I was surprised, but I didn't expect it to last, and it didn't. Sabathia is 5-7, with 8 quality start in his 16 outings. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs 5 times. However, those 5 are in his last 5 outings, in which he's allowed 39 hits and 25 earned runs in 28.1 innings. That translates to a 1.73 WHIP and a 7.94 ERA over his last 5 starts. Sabathia doesn't go very deep in his games anymore. He's averaging under 6 innings per start, but with the Yankees formidable bullpen that's not as much of a problem is it would be for other teams. Sabathia's K/9 rate (7.11) is well below where he's been the last couple of years, his BB/9 (3.56) is at a career high, and his average fastball velocity is now at 88.8 mph, down from the 90.3 of even last season.
Doug Fister is having a solid season for the Astros. He's 10-6 with 13 quality starts in his 19 outings. including 8 oh is last 10. He's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 3 times this season. He is 9-3 over his last 15 outings going back to May 1, with 11 quality starts during that stretch. Fister is on pace to set a career high in wins, exceeding his 2014 season in Washington in which he won 16 games.
2016
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
K-BB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Sabathai
|
1.38
|
4.04
|
4.70
|
4.75
|
6.82
|
3.41
|
2
|
0.63
|
8.60%
|
0.253
|
0.297
|
71.00%
|
Fister
|
1.23
|
3.42
|
4.91
|
4.78
|
5.63
|
3.04
|
1.85
|
1.14
|
7.00%
|
0.236
|
0.254
|
79.50%
|
The numbers say this is very close, but I'm not sure that I agree. Fister's been solid and Sabathia's been fading
Bullpens
Team
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Yankees
|
1.08
|
3.45
|
2.83
|
3.19
|
19
|
11
|
29
|
8
|
78.4%
|
75.50%
|
0.215
|
0.280
|
Astros
|
1.11
|
3.06
|
3.01
|
3.32
|
18
|
11
|
27
|
13
|
67.5%
|
77.00%
|
0.229
|
0.296
|
These pens are very close, and now the Yankees don't have Chapman.
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Eank
|
|
wRC+
|
Eank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Yankees
|
-52.7
|
26
|
|
87
|
27
|
|
0.304
|
25
|
|
6
|
26
|
Astros
|
-7.8
|
13
|
|
100
|
12
|
|
0.322
|
11
|
|
12.7
|
14
|
The Astros have the much better offense
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Yankees
|
-13.1
|
23
|
Astros
|
2
|
20
|
Both teams have weak defenbses, but the Yanks are weaker.
In this game, I'm fading Sabathia, plain and simple.
PICK - HTN ML (-144) and 1st 5 HTN ML (-132)