For what it's worth, yesterday was another great day. It started poorly and ended poorly, but everything in between was good. We liked a few games and most of them went our way, and yes, we got a little lucky again in one of them. Our posted plays finished an excellent 5-2. Coupled with our 26-15 roll over the last five days, Our 6 day winning streak now stands at 31-17. We hope we can keep it going for another day and close on the month strong.
In our 1st play, we liked the BOS ML with David Price against the Rays and Matt Moore. This one went completly opposite of what we expected. It was a tale of two innings, the TB 3rd and the BOS 6th. In the TB 3rd, the Rays strung together 4 hits, to turn a 1-0 lead into a 4-0 lead. Through 5 innings Matt Moore hadn't even allowed a hit. However, In the BOS 6th, 3 singles loaded the bases with only 1 out. That's usually the kind of spot where Moore makes a crucial mistake to cost him a W. Not this time. He got a pop out and a fly out and the threat went for naught. 4-0 TB it was, and 4-0TB it stayed.
For our 2nd play, we backed the Cubs ML with Kyle Hendricks. We were concerned about betting the RL. We liked what we've seen of Reed, and the Cubs were very lucky to get us a RL W on Tuesday, so we were reluctant to bet the RL again. As it turned out, the Cubs made it look easy and rolled 9-2.
For our 3rd play, we backed the Astros and Dallas Keuchel on the ML at LAA. This play was basically a fade of Jered Weaver, who we believe has nothing left. Weaver allowed 7 hits and 6 runs over 5.1 innings, Keuchel threw a quality start, and the Astros pulled away for an easy 10-4 W
Our 4th play was on the Nationals RL and Max Scherzer v the NYM and Logan Verrett. The only question here was whether Mad Max could keep it in the ballpark. He did. He gave up no homers and fanned 10 to boot. The Nats got 2 off Verrett in his 6 innings, and 2 more in the 8th against the Mets pen. The Mets made it closer with a 2 run shot in the 9th, but that was as close as they got. Final: 4-2 Nats.
Our 5th play was on the white hot Indians RL as we backed Danny Salazar v the woeful Braves and rookie Joel De La Cruz. Salazar did not disappoint, throwing 7 innings of shutout ball with 8 Ks. The Indians got 3 off De La Cruz is his 6 innings and that was enough, as the Indians cruised to their 12th straight W 3-0.
Our 6th play was on the Yankees ML with Masahiro Tanaka v v the red hot Rangers and Nick Martinez. This one went totally opposite of what we expected. Martinez, who we expected to suck, pitched 5 good innings and allowed just 2 runs. Tanaka, who we expected to pitch well, got hammered for 8 hits and 6 runs in his 6 innings. The Rangers has a seemingly comfortable 6-2 lead after 6. The teams traded runs in the 8th and it was 7-3 TEX when the Yanks came up to bat in the bottom of the 9th. Then all hell broke loose. A single, a walk and another single, coupled with an error made it 7-4 TEX. After a line out, Brian McCann hit a 3 run shot to tie the game at 7. After another walk, Didi Gregrorius launched a 2 run shot for an improbable 9-7 walk off W for the Yankees. Can you say LUCKY? I sure can.
Our 6th and final play was on the Cardinals ML v KC. Carlos Martinez and Edinson Volquez were both excellent as the game was still scoreless entering the 8th. The Royals got a run in the 8th and the Cards got one in the 9th to send the game to extra innings. They each scored 1 in the 10th. The Royals had already blown 2 saves, but when they finally scored again in the 12th, they held on, for a 3-2 W.
We do have a couple of regrets from yesterday. We liked the Brewers and the Pirates, but we didn't trust either one enough to post or bet them. We should have. Kudos to RichD and Special K who picked and posted both of them. Nice job guys!
Also thanks to Winnebet for listing his TTF 3 unit plays in his post. They went 4-1. Nice job Winni!
On to today's card. At first glance, we're not seeing a lot that jumps out at us, but I'm sure we'll find a few. As I finalize a pick, I'll post it. Here's the first one.
TEX @ NYY
AJ Griffin returned from the DL (shoulder stiffness) in his June 25 outing v BOS. He only pitched 4.1 innings, allowing 4 hits and 2 earned run, while striking out 6 and walking just 1. He was pitching very well before he went on the DL, back in early May. He was 3-0 with 4 quality starts in his 6 outings.
Michael Pineda wasn't very good over the first 2 months of this season. He did toss 4 quality starts in his first 10 outings, but he also had 5 outings in which he allowed at least 5 earned runs, and 4 in which he allowed 6 or more. His ERA sat a a lofty 6.92. However, since the calendar turned to June, Pineda's been superb. He has 3 quality starts in his 5 outings and missed in the other 2 by 1 and 2 outs. He hasn't allowed more than 1 earned run in any of the 5 and he's fanned 37 in 30 innings with only 5 walks. Pineda has now lowered his ERA by almost a run and a half this month.
Both pitchers have pitched well, but Pineda's metrics are over a full run better than Griffin's
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rangers
|
18
|
15
|
30
|
9
|
76.9%
|
73.10%
|
1.32
|
4.73
|
4.53
|
4.38
|
0.252
|
0.308
|
Yankees
|
15
|
9
|
23
|
4
|
85.2%
|
73.00%
|
1.25
|
3.87
|
3.48
|
3.00
|
0.252
|
0.293
|
The Yankees have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Based on WHIP, ERA and metrics, the Yankees have the clearly better unit, their metrics are over a full run better than Texas'. Additionally the Yankees didn't use any of their big 3 (Betances, Miller and Chapman) yesterday.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Rangers
|
-13.6
|
15
|
|
95
|
19
|
|
0.323
|
12
|
|
10.8
|
11
|
Yankees
|
-41.9
|
27
|
|
86
|
27
|
|
0.303
|
24
|
|
3.2
|
26
|
The Rangers have a mediocre offense, which still makes them much better than the offensively challenged Yankees. However when we factor in that the Rangers don't hit righties much better (rank #19) than the Yankees do (rank #21), the Rangers still get an edge here, but not a huge one.
Defenses
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Rangers
|
22.2
|
6
|
Yankees
|
-19.4
|
27
|
The Rangers are a very good defensive team, the Yankees are not.
The Yankees have the better bullpen, and based on the metrics, the better starting pitcher. The Rangers have the better offense and the better defense. Good pitching still trumps good hitting in my book. The Rangers could also still be shell shock over last night's game and their bullpen did work 4 innings with an L and a blown save. As for the total, I'm not sure what to expect from Griffin, he didn't pitch deep into his last outing, but he did have 6 Ks and he didn't get it hard, so with that, and the way Pineda's been pitching this month, the 9 seems high to me
PICK - NYY ML (-126) and UNDER 9 (-120)
MINN @ CHI WS
Tommy Milone isn't 'very good. He's 0-2, and has yet to throw a quality start in any of his 5 outings as a starter. In his first start since being recalled from Triple A, Milone gave up 4 runs (1 earned) on 6 hits with 2 walks and just 1 strikeout over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Yankees. It's the same old story. He dominated Triple-A after his demotion (1.66 ERA and 41:4 K:BB in 48.2 innings), but continues to struggle in the majors.
Carlos Rodon is having another inconsistent season. He's only 2-6. He does have 8 quality starts in his 14 outings and missed a 9th in his last start by 1 out. However he also has 4 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs. He's been more consistent recently as he has held opponents to 2 or fewer earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. Last season walks were a big problem for Rodon (4.53 BB/9). This season, while they're still higher than one would like (3.21 BB/9), th eare down significantly.
Rodn's no prize, but he's still much better than Milone.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Twins
|
13
|
15
|
11
|
11
|
50.0%
|
73.60%
|
1.46
|
4.59
|
4.21
|
4.16
|
0.285
|
0.327
|
White Sox
|
11
|
10
|
23
|
12
|
65.7%
|
75.60%
|
1.38
|
3.51
|
4.33
|
4.33
|
0.257
|
0.304
|
Neither of these bullpens is particularly good. The White Sox have more small edges, but the Twins hve the slightly better metrics. There is no real edge here.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-31.2
|
22
|
|
88
|
25
|
|
0.306
|
23
|
|
3.7
|
25
|
White Sox
|
-39
|
25
|
|
89
|
22
|
|
0.308
|
21
|
|
4.7
|
24
|
Both offenses are weak and pretty even. The Twins do hit lefties a little better (rank #17) than the White Sox (#23). There's not enough here to give either side an edge.
Defense
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-29
|
29
|
White Sox
|
-12.7
|
24
|
Both teams are bad defensive, but the White Sox a little less so.
There's really not that much difference between these two teams. They both have very mediocre bullpens. They both have weak offenses and they both have lousy defenses. The only real difference is the two starting pitchers. Carlos Rodon still isn't consistent enough, and he still walks too many. However, he has definitely improved in both areas. As for Tommy Milone, he's started 28 games over the past 2 seasons and he's thrown 5 quality starts. He even tossed one against these White Sox last September, so it's possible he could do it again, but I'm sure not betting on it again. Quite the opposite,I'm fading Milone.
PICK - CHI WS (-145)
LAD @ MIL
Kenta Maeda is having a surprisingly good season for the Dodger. He's 6-5, with 8 quality starts in his 15 outings. He's been kind of streaky. He started out the season unbelievably well woth 4 straight quality starts. He then struggled through his next 5 starts, tossing just 1 quality start and giving up 4 earned runs in 4 of them. Now in his last 6 outings, he's thrown 4 quality starts and allowed more than 2 earned run just once.
After a very slow start, Zach Davies has just gotten better and better. In 3 April starts, Davies was hammered for 23 hits and 13 earned runs in just 13,1 innings. He had a 2,25 WHIP and an 8.78 ERA. In 5 May starts, Davies tossed 2 quality starts and missed a 3rd by 1 out. His WHIP was 1.39 and his ERA was 3.81. In 4 June starts, Davies has 4 quality starts and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of the 5, and 1 or less in 4 of the 5. His June wHUP is 0.79 and his June ERA is 1.64.
Maeda's got the better numbers, but not by much.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Dodgers
|
16
|
12
|
21
|
12
|
63.6%
|
77.50%
|
1.12
|
3.08
|
3.53
|
3.99
|
0.220
|
0.239
|
Brewers
|
11
|
12
|
26
|
10
|
72.2%
|
78.10%
|
1.42
|
4.16
|
4.41
|
4.40
|
0.265
|
0.311
|
Based on WHIP, ERA, Metrics, BAA and BABIP, the Dodger have the better bullpen.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Dodgers
|
-38
|
24
|
|
89
|
22
|
|
0.301
|
26
|
|
8
|
19
|
Brewers
|
-28
|
21
|
|
90
|
21
|
|
0.315
|
18
|
|
6.1
|
22
|
Both offense are below average, but the Dodgers are slightly more so.
Defense
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Dodgers
|
26.1
|
5
|
Brewers
|
-1.1
|
20
|
The Dodgers have the better defense.
We have two teams with weak offenses and good pitchers in good form. The Dodger do get an edge in the bullpen and on defense, but this looks to be a lose game, so I'll pass on the side. It also looks to be a low scoring game.
PICK - UNDER 8 (-105)
CLEV @ TOR
Carlos Carrasco is having a decent season for the Indians. He's 3-2, with 5 quality starts in his 9 outings, including his last 3. He's given up more than 3 runs (4) just twice and he's allowed 2 or less in his last 3 outings.
R.A. Dickey is having a less than stellar season for the Blue Jays. He's 5-8 with only 6 quality starts in his 16 outings. On the plus side, he's only allowed more than 4 earned runs just twice (both in April), which means he'll at least keeps his team in the game. The 41 year old knucleballer also continues to be an innings eater, as he's averaging 6 inning per start. One the minus side, he's been much worse at home this season, with a home WHIP of 1.38 and a home ERA of 5.36. He still walks too many (34) and combined with the 93 hits that he's allowed, that's 127 baserunners in just over 95 innings.
There's no question who has the better numbers, and Carrasco's metrics are over a full run better than Dickey's.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
11
|
11
|
16
|
7
|
69.6%
|
78.30%
|
1.18
|
3.28
|
3.82
|
3.95
|
0.231
|
0.278
|
Blue Jays
|
8
|
17
|
20
|
10
|
66.7%
|
75.00%
|
1.26
|
4.13
|
4.11
|
4.02
|
0.243
|
0.309
|
The number say CLEV has the better bullpen. Those 17 Ls and 10 BS by TOR are ugly.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
18.7
|
7
|
|
103
|
8
|
|
0.324
|
11
|
|
13.5
|
4
|
Blue Jays
|
4.6
|
9
|
|
103
|
8
|
|
0.328
|
7
|
|
11.5
|
8
|
Both of these offense are well above average and very close. There is no edge here.
Defense
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
18.3
|
7
|
Blue Jays
|
8.3
|
14
|
Both of these team are good defensively, but the Indians are better
The Indians are white hot right now. I tried stepping in front of that train on Sunday and got run over. This week, I wasn't going to get burned again, so I jumped on the Indians and cashed a ML and 2 RL tickets so far. The Indians have the much better bullpen, and the better starting pitcher. The offenses are pretty even, and CLEV also has the better defense. There's just no area where the Blue Jays are better. The Indians have outscored opponents 76-24 and have hit 22 homers, including 11 in their last 5 games, during their 12 game winning streak. Yes, Dickey's knuckler could confound CLEV's bats, and TOR is dangerous, especially at home. However, I'm still not stepping in front of that train right now.
PICK - CLEV - ML (-115)
KC @ STL
Chris Young is having an awful year for the Royals. He's 2-7, with just 2 quality starts in his 11 outings as a starter. He's also allowed a t least 4 earned runs in five of his starts and at least 5 in 4 of them. He averages less than 5 innings per start and he's also allowed 61 hits and 23 walks in his 53.2 innings. That's a total of 84 baserunners in just over 53 innings. The bottom line is that Chris Young just isn't very good. As a matter of fact , he not good at all - he just plain sucks.
Mike Leake's been very streaky for the Cardinals. He's got a 5-5 record, with 8 quality starts in his 15 outings. He started the season very poorly, with just 1 quality starts in his first 6 outings. He allowed 37 hits and 23 earned runs in just 34.1 innings, with a WHIP of 1.34 and an ERA of 6.03. However, in his last 9 outings, he's thrown 7 quality starts and allowed2 earned runs or less in all 7. His WHIP over that span was 1,17 and his ERA was 3.18. He only has 59 strikeouts in his 91 innings, but he's also walked just 16.
Leake's numbers aren't great, but with the exception of the strikeouts, they're all much better than Young's. Leake's metrics, in particular, range from a half to a full run better than Young's as well.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cardinals
|
13
|
9
|
15
|
9
|
62.5%
|
74.30%
|
1.25
|
3.77
|
3.99
|
3.76
|
0.242
|
0.265
|
Royals
|
15
|
5
|
19
|
10
|
65.5%
|
81.90%
|
1.33
|
2.78
|
4.12
|
3.89
|
0.248
|
0.283
|
These two bullpens are both very good and pretty even. I'll give the Royals a slight edge but very slight, especially considering that the Royal blew 2 saves last night before finally winning, and that the metrics favor STL.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
31.4
|
4
|
|
112
|
2
|
|
0.337
|
4
|
|
12.3
|
7
|
Royals
|
-16
|
19
|
|
97
|
15
|
|
0.319
|
14
|
|
9.4
|
15
|
The Cardinal have a huge edge here. It's even bigger when you factor in that STL hits righties very well (rank #3) and KC doesn't (rank #23).
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Cardinals
|
-2.9
|
21
|
Royals
|
13.8
|
10
|
The Royals are much better defensively.
We're going to try this again tonight. The Cards have the much better O, a bullpen that is even or close to even with KC's and the better starting pitcher, who is pitching much better right now. We should again note that, even with last night's results, while the Cards are not a good home team (15-22, 40.5% v 25-15, 62.5% on the road) The Royals are a dreadful road team (14-25, 35.9% v. 27-11, 71.1% at home). There are to factors behind this pick. First,the Cards have almost every edge in this game, of course that was true last night as well. The second is that Chris Young is pitching for the Royals and he is an almost automatic fade for me.
PICK - STL ML (-144)
CHI Cubs @ NYM
Steven Matz is dealing with a bone spur issue on his pitching elbow that has caused him noticeable discomfort. Surgery to remove the bone spurs is inevitable, it's just a matter of whether Matz will be able to push through the remainder of the season with them or undergo surgery that would likely end his Season. Matz was having a very good year, but has been shelled in 2 of is last 3 starts. Over his last 3 starts, he's allowed 22 hits and 12 earned runs in 16.1 innings. Compare that to his numbers in his previous 9 outings, all quality starts, - 48 hits, and 9 earned runs in 58,2 innings. Matz hasn't been the same pitcher.
John Lackey's having an excellent season. He's 7-4. with 12 quality starts in his 15 outings, including 10 in a row before getting hammered by MIA in his last outing.
The numbers are very close. If Matz was healthy, I probably pass on the side, but he's not.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Cubs
|
9
|
7
|
14
|
5
|
73.7%
|
73.50%
|
1.08
|
3.64
|
3.66
|
3.96
|
0.203
|
0.255
|
Mets
|
11
|
10
|
27
|
6
|
81.8%
|
80.00%
|
1.20
|
3.16
|
3.63
|
3.98
|
0.245
|
0.282
|
Both teams have good bullpen, but based on Save and Strand rate, we'll give the Mets a small edge.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
37
|
3
|
|
108
|
4
|
|
0.334
|
5
|
|
18.1
|
2
|
Mets
|
-25.3
|
20
|
|
94
|
20
|
|
0.306
|
22
|
|
6.7
|
21
|
This is a mismatch. The Cubs are loaded, while the Mets are struggling.
Defense
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Cubs
|
47.7
|
2
|
Mets
|
3.5
|
17
|
Defensively, the Cubs are excellent, while the Mets are mediocre.
In this game the Cubs have a much better offense, a much better defense and a bullpens that's very close to being even with the Mets. When we compare the two starting pitchers, they both have excellent numbers, but only one them, Lackey, is healthy. It sounds to me like Matz will be pitching with pain and that sooner or later he'll need surgery to remove his spurs. I just can't bet on a pitcher with those kind of health issues, and certainly not against the Cubs. So I'll bet Lackey bounces back.
PICK - CHI CUBS ML (-134)
SF @ OAK
Madison Bumgarner is elite. He's one of the best pitchers in the game. He's 8-4, with 14 quality starts in his 16 outings, including his last 13 in a row.
Dillon Overton allowed 3 runs on 7 hits, struck out 3 and walked 2 over 5.2 innings in his MLB debut y against the Angels. He was the A’s second round pick in 2013, Overton underwent TJ surgery shortly after signing. Since returning, he’s yet to recover his pre-surgery velocity and now sits 86-91 down from a peak fastball velocity of 95. But despite the loss of velocity, he features a bag of respectable secondary offerings that when located keeps hitters off balance. He’s become a command-and-control, pitch-to-contact type. In the PCL, He displayed an ability to limit walks and keep the ball in the yard while pitching in a very hitter friendly environment. It’s difficult to surmise whether his stuff will play over the course of the season
No question who has the edge here.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
Save %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Giants
|
16
|
8
|
22
|
12
|
64.7%
|
74.40%
|
1.20
|
3.65
|
3.92
|
3.98
|
0.242
|
0.288
|
Athletics
|
13
|
9
|
20
|
8
|
71.4%
|
73.20%
|
1.40
|
3.97
|
4.19
|
3.92
|
0.267
|
0.298
|
These two bullpens are both good and fairly evenly matched. We'll give a slight edge to SF based on WHIP ERA and SIERA.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
12.9
|
8
|
|
103
|
7
|
|
0.317
|
16
|
|
16.2
|
3
|
Athletics
|
-40.4
|
26
|
|
89
|
22
|
|
0.302
|
25
|
|
1.1
|
28
|
This is a mismatch. SF is much better.
Defense
Team
|
DRAA
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
50.5
|
1
|
Athletics
|
-42.3
|
30
|
This is another mismatch. SF is the highest rated D, while OAK is the lowest.
Let's see. SF has the much better O, the much better D, a bullpen that's at least as good as OAK's and Madison Bumgraner V Dillon Overton. This looks too easy.
PICK SF - ML (-146)