For what it's worth, yesterday wasn't worth much, as we struggled to a 2-5 mark on our posted plays. Only the Tigers and the Diamondbacks came through for us. The under looked good in the PHIL/MINN game until very late when PHIL scored garbage time runs to ruin it. I should known better than to trust bad teams. The Cubbies also cost us dearly. Yes I know they're beat up, but they still have a very good lineup and everyone's been crushing Chen's offerings lately. Only 2 runs???. As for the Mets, I know they have trouble scoring. With them it's either HR or zip, but this was the Braves. Even with their recent play, they're still the worst team in baseball and even more offensively challenged than the Mets. If the Mets lose their division, which I fully expect will happen, they need look no further than how they played against the worst team in baseball. Finally we have the Red Sox. This is supposed to be the best offense in baseball and they were facing James Shields who had allowed 21 earned runs in his 8.2 innings of work with the White Sox going into this game, to give him an unbelievably high 21.81 ERA. They made Shields look decent. And what's wrong with the Sox bullpen? They've looked shaky all week. Yesterday, Layne and Tazawa combined for 4 hits, 3 runs and a blown save. They're starting to remind me of the TOR pen.
In the words of a song that I used to hear on the radio, when I was growing up "Mama said there's be day like this". This too shall pass.
On to today's card. As I finalize a pick, I'll post it. Here's the first one.
LAD @ PITT
Nick Tepesch missed all of last season because of right elbow inflammation. He also had surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, which affects the nerves that pass through the shoulder into the neck. He was 9-17 with a 4.56 ERA in 42 major league games, all with the Texas in 2013 and 2014.
Jameson Taillon was excellent through his first 2 outings, both quality starts, but he came crashing down to earth in his last start. He was hit hard in the loss to the Cubs, allowing four runs on eight hits, 3 HRs and a walk in just 4 innings. He struck out 5. and ran his pitch count up to 85 before being pulled after the 4th.
Tepesch's numbers are from his 2014 season where he made 22 starts with Texas. Taillon's numbers are based on his 3 starts this season.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Dodgers
|
16
|
12
|
21
|
12
|
63.6%
|
77.70%
|
1.06
|
3.00
|
3.55
|
3.96
|
0.197
|
0.241
|
Pirates
|
7
|
11
|
22
|
9
|
71.0%
|
72.40%
|
1.45
|
4.35
|
4.43
|
4.76
|
0.259
|
0.301
|
The Pirates don't have a good bullpen. The Dodgers do. Big Edge - LAD
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Dodgers
|
-33.8
|
25
|
|
90
|
21
|
|
0.301
|
26
|
Pirates
|
18.2
|
6
|
|
106
|
7
|
|
0.325
|
9
|
The Pirates are loaded, and the Dodgers are offensively challenged. Big edge - PITT
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Dodgers
|
23.4
|
6
|
Pirates
|
12.2
|
11
|
Bothe teams have above average defenses. It's close but the Dodgers rank a little higher.
The Dodgers have the clearly better bullpen and the Pirates have the much better offense. I think this game comes down to the starting pitchers. I'm impressed by what I've seen of Taillon. Yes, the Cubs hammered him in his last outing, but is his 2 previous outing he threw 2 quality starts and this Dodger offense is not even close to the Cubs offensively. They've also never seen Taillon before. I like Taillon's chances. As for Nick Tepesch, since he hasn't pitched since 2014, I'm not sure what to expect. However I do remember him from his Ranger days, and I wasn't impressed. He was mediocre then, and I expect him to be mediocre at best now. It's tought to back the Pirates after how they played v SF, but I think the Pirates get to Tepesch early and often. If I'm right, the Dodger edge in the bullpen won't matter.
PICK - PITT ML (-121)
TB @ BALT
Matt Moore is having a mediocre season. He's just 3-4 with 6 quality starts in his 14 outings. He also has 6 outings in which he's allowed 4 or more earned runs. However, over his last 2 starts, Moore has allowed just 2 runs on 8 hits and struck out 15 in 13 innings.
Yovani Gallardo gave up 5 hits, 2 earned runs and 4 walks over 5 innings in a 4-2 victory over the Blue Jays. He also struck out 5. Galloardo(shoulder) hasn't started a MLB game since April 22. He was the Orioles' big free agent pitching signing this past offseason. He was supposed to spackle the gaping hole created by the departure of Wei-Yin Chen. However, his numbers in the second half of last season were not good, which is why 29 other teams passed on him and why he was still available in late February, when the Orioles- rolled the dice on him. In the second half of 2015, Gallardo posted a 1.72 WHIP and a K rate of 5.3 per nine innings. In his first 4 starts of 2016, his WHIP (1.67) was still sky-high, and his K rate (4.5) even lower. His fastball velocity, which was already down from a career-high 92.6 miles an hour in 2011 to 90.5 last year, has dipped even further to 88.3 this season. Gallardo isn’t the pitcher he once was. If you include E\Gallardo’s final two starts before the 2015 All-Star break, along with all 12 of his second-half outings, plus his first four games of this season, here’s what you get: 100.1 IP, 131 hits, 44 BB, 58 K, 4.93 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, 1.35 K/BB.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Rays
|
13
|
13
|
19
|
7
|
73.1%
|
79.10%
|
1.34
|
4.08
|
3.83
|
4.08
|
0.252
|
0.292
|
Orioles
|
18
|
7
|
25
|
10
|
71.4%
|
80.50%
|
1.32
|
3.11
|
3.85
|
4.08
|
0.245
|
0.298
|
There's not much difference between these two bullpens. The O's have the better W-L record and ERA, so well give them a slight edge.
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-4.2
|
12
|
|
98
|
11
|
|
0.313
|
19
|
Orioles
|
31.7
|
3
|
|
109
|
3
|
|
0.338
|
3
|
Both of these offenses are well above average, but the O's are top 3. Edge Os.
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Rays
|
-11.8
|
23
|
Orioles
|
-17.9
|
25
|
Both teams have lousy defenses. Neither deserves to get an edge here.
It's difficult to fade BALT at home, but I'm still not a Gallardo believer. Yes he only allowed 2 earned runs in his 5 innings, but he allowed 5 hits and walked 4, That's 9 baserunners. Gallardo was lucky to give up only 2 runs. The bullpens are even and the offenses aren't that far apart. I prefer to put my money on Matt Moore at a dog price.
PICK - TB (+130)
MINN @ NYY
Tommy Milone was recalled by the Twins to take over Pat Dean's spot in the rotation after Dean was optioned to Triple-A Rochester in a corresponding move. In 4 April starts with the Twins, Miilone failed to record a quality start. He allowed 24 hits and 14 earned runs in his 20 innings, and pitched less than 5 innings in 3 of the 4.
Masahiro Tanaka is having a good season. He's only 4-2, but he's tossed 9 quality starts in his 14 outings, and he's now allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 6.
No question who has the edge here. Big Edge - Tanaka
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Twins
|
13
|
14
|
11
|
11
|
50.0%
|
73.30%
|
1.44
|
4.67
|
3.69
|
4.19
|
0.276
|
0.331
|
Yankees
|
13
|
8
|
21
|
4
|
84.0%
|
72.50%
|
1.11
|
3.95
|
2.58
|
3.01
|
0.227
|
0.301
|
The Yankees have the best bullpen in baseball. Bid Edge NYY
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-24.4
|
21
|
|
90
|
21
|
|
0.307
|
22
|
Yankees
|
-31.2
|
23
|
|
89
|
24
|
|
0.306
|
23
|
Both offenses are pretty inept. The Twins rank a little higher but not enough to really give them an edge.
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-28.7
|
29
|
Yankees
|
-19
|
27
|
Both teams are defensively weak. The Yanks rank a little higher, but not enough to give them an edge.
This one is actually pretty simple. The Yankees have the much better starting pitcher and the much better bullpen. The Twins have no real edge in this game. The price is steep, but considering the pitching mismatch, that's understandable.
PICK - NYY ML (-188)
CLEV @ DET
Danny Salazar is having a very solid season for the Indians. He's 8-3 with 8 quality starts in his 13 outings and now has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 8 of his last 9 starts.
Jordan Zimmerman is also having a fine season. He's 9-3 with 8 quality starts in his 13 outings. In his last start, Zimmerman allowed just 1 run on 4 hits while striking out 5 over eight innings, but received no decision at the Royals. That outing came after allowing 11 earned runs in his last 11.2 innings over his previous 2 starts
Both pitchers are having good seasons, but Salazar's numbers, especially the metrics, are clearly better.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Indians
|
11
|
11
|
15
|
7
|
68.2%
|
78.70%
|
1.24
|
3.35
|
3.67
|
3.96
|
0.226
|
0.276
|
Tigers
|
10
|
8
|
21
|
8
|
72.4%
|
69.30%
|
1.40
|
4.57
|
3.78
|
3.93
|
0.269
|
0.325
|
These two bullpen are very close. We'll give CLEV a small edge based strand rate, WHUP and ERA
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
13.7
|
8
|
|
101
|
10
|
|
0.321
|
11
|
Tigers
|
12.8
|
9
|
|
107
|
6
|
|
0.332
|
6
|
Again, these two offenses are very close. DET gets a small edge.
Defenses
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
18.4
|
7
|
Tigers
|
-21.9
|
28
|
The Indians are a very good defensive team. The Tigers are not. Big Edge CLEV
This shapes up as a very close game between two AL central rivals. The indians get a small edge in the bullpen and the tigers get a small edge on the offensive side. The Indians also have the much better D. The keys is the two starting pitchers they are both having solid seasons, but the number, especially the metrics, say Salazar has the edge. At almost even money I'll go with the team with the better starting pitcher IMO. I'll also bet on these pitching staffs to keep these offenses in check.
PICK - CLEV ML (-102) and UNDER 8 (-105)
NYM @ ATL
Steven Matz is having a good season. He's 7-3 with 8 Quality starts in his 13 outings. He's also allowe 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his outings.
Aaron Blair is not having a good season. He's 0-4 and has tossed just 2 quality starts in his 10 outings. Through 46.1 innings, tBlair has a brutal 7.19 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 27:26 K:BB.
There's no room for doubt here. Big Edge Matz
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Mets
|
9
|
10
|
25
|
6
|
80.6%
|
80.30%
|
1.22
|
3.12
|
3.51
|
3.92
|
0.222
|
0.282
|
Braves
|
11
|
15
|
13
|
10
|
56.5%
|
71.20%
|
1.46
|
4.28
|
3.88
|
4.14
|
0.248
|
0.321
|
This one's not close. The Mets hold every edge.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
-19.3
|
18
|
|
96
|
17
|
|
0.308
|
21
|
Braves
|
-94.3
|
30
|
|
71
|
30
|
|
0.278
|
30
|
Again we have a clear winner here. The Mets are below average offensively, but the Braves have the worst offense in baseball.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
3.6
|
16
|
Braves
|
15.6
|
9
|
Defensively, the Mets are mediocre and the Braves are well above average.
The Mets hold every edge in this game. They have the much better starting pitcher, the much better bullpen and the better offense. Of course, they did last night as well, and that didn't work out very well. It's hard to bet on the Mets, especially the way they're not hitting, but I still believe they're much better than the Braves. I'm not willing to lay -200 on the ML so as crazy as it seems
PICK - NYM - RL (-135)
WASH @ MIL
Max Scherzer is having another great season. He's 8-4 with 11 quality starts in his 15 outings, including his last 4.
After a slow start, Zach Davies has pitched good ball for the Brewers. He's 5-3 with 6 quality starts in his 12 outings. However 4 of them have come in his last 4 outings, in which he's given up 13 hits and just 3 earnedr runs in 28 innings during that span.
The only concern here is Scherzer giving up the HR. Everything else leans Scherzer by a country mile.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Nationals
|
10
|
10
|
20
|
7
|
74.1%
|
76.20%
|
1.16
|
3.29
|
3.35
|
3.74
|
0.221
|
0.285
|
Brewers
|
10
|
11
|
24
|
10
|
70.6%
|
77.70%
|
1.47
|
4.2
|
4.06
|
4.38
|
0.264
|
0.314
|
This isn't close. The Nationals have the much better bullpen
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Nationals
|
-3.8
|
11
|
|
98
|
11
|
|
0.320
|
12
|
Brewers
|
-27
|
22
|
|
90
|
21
|
|
0.314
|
18
|
The Nationals are well above average, while the Brewers are well below average.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Nationals
|
26.2
|
4
|
Brewers
|
-1.5
|
20
|
The Nationals also have the much better defense
The Nationals have every edge in this game. They have the much better bullpen, the better offense and the better defense. And while both starting pitchers have been outstanding since the calendar turned to June, we still have to give Scherzer a substantial edge. Ams since both pitcher are looking so good we'll look at the under as well
Pick - WASH ML (-156) and UNDER 7.5 (-115)
BOS @ TEX
After a slow start David Price has really turned it on. He's 8-4 and has now tossed 8 straight quality starts in his last 8 outings, allowing 2 earner runs or less in 7 of them.
Nick Martinez has only stareted 1 game for TEX. He only lasted 4.1 innings and allowed 6 hits and 3 earned runs, while wlaking 2 and only striking out 1.
This should be a mismatch
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
Red Sox
|
10
|
13
|
17
|
7
|
70.8%
|
74.10%
|
1.23
|
3.56
|
3.45
|
3.95
|
0.221
|
0.288
|
Rangers
|
16
|
13
|
29
|
7
|
80.6%
|
73.50%
|
1.42
|
4.71
|
4.00
|
4.32
|
0.274
|
0.312
|
This is actually pretty close. We'll give the Sox the edge based on WHIP, ERA, metrics, BAA and BABIP, but the Rangers have the better W-L record and a very impressive save rate. Additionally, the Ranger pen is fresher. The Sox saw a lot of action in the CHI series and didn't look particularly good.
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
68.5
|
1
|
|
118
|
1
|
|
0.354
|
1
|
Rangers
|
-15.6
|
16
|
|
94
|
19
|
|
0.320
|
12
|
The Red Sox have a great offense, while the Rangers are average.
Defense
Team
|
Def
|
Rank
|
Red Sox
|
11.1
|
12
|
Rangers
|
23.7
|
5
|
The Rangers have the better D
The Red Sox appear to have just about every edge in this game. I hate betting against a hot team like TEX is right now, but I just can't back Martinez over Price.
PICk - BOS RL (-125)