2015 MLB Record
105 – 99 for +7.0 Units
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#1: Pittsburgh Pirates +133
In his last 4 starts J.A. Happ has allowed a total of 2 runs (23 innings) to go with 18 K’s and only 5 BB’s. His ERA sits at 2.0 since coming over from the Mariners and looks like he’s adjusting pretty well to life in the National League. Today he’ll face the Cardinals, a team that ranks only 22nd against lefties (they’re 9th against righties) and most of their hitters have never seen Happ before. Checking the advanced stats, you can see right away that August has been Happ’s best month of the year – 21% K-rate; 0.3 HR/9; and 2.6 FIP. Here are Martinez’ numbers in August – 22% K-rate; 0.3 HR/9; and 2.6 FIP – they’re pretty much the same. Yet, Happ is a substantial underdog in this one. This will also be the 4th time that the Pirates will face Martinez this season so hoping that they pick up his stuff much better today. My model has this one at -135 STL, so no ‘visible’ odds value in our favor. But keep in mind that those numbers are based off Happ’s full-year performance. If we only look at his August numbers since he came over to the NL, and since I expect him to pitch at that level tonight, there’s definitely some value on the underdog here.
#2: Colorado Rockies -115 (1st 5 Innings Only)
Here’s part of my write-up from yesterday’s Colorado 1st 5 play: “…..Furthermore, Giants’ offense ranks 27th in ISO against left-handed pitchers. As long as Rusin doesn’t issue too many free passes and keeps the ball on the ground (51% GB-rate), San Fran will need to string a bunch of hits to score runs off him. On the other side, Colorado ranks 2nd in ISO against right-handers so it could be ‘bombs away’ time against Vogelsong. Rusin is a ‘better’ pitcher from my perspective and Rockies’ offense is much more likely to put up runs in a hurry in this matchup.” Basically replace Vogelsong with Heston, and Rusin with De La Rosa, and the narrative is the same tonight. Here is how Heston has done IN Colorado in his two starts there this year: 11 innings; 4 HR’s; 19 hits; 12 runs; and only 6 K’s to 3 BB’s. Here are some of Heston’s numbers in August:
11% K-rate (lowest of the year);
12% BB-rate (you know it’s bad when your walk-rate is higher than your strike-out rate)
1.9 HR/9 rate (This is a pitcher who has a 0.7 HR/9 rate on the year. He’s given up 5 in August)
6.7 FIP / 5.9 xFIP – no surprise of course after looking at the above numbers
Here are his SIERA #’s in his 5 August starts: 5.7, 6.3, 5.9, 6.6, 5.4 ~ average of 6.0.
Heston is a rookie and by all accounts he’s hitting a ‘rookie wall’ it seems. His fastball velocity is barely even reaching 88 MPH, and though he was never a ‘flame thrower’, he sat around 90 earlier in the year. I’m not sure if he’s “hurt” or “fatigued” but something is definitely off with him. Hopefully CarGo and Arenado continue chasing one another for the NL HR lead once again tonight as they face off against Heston. (Once again huge BP disadvantage for the Rockies so no need to get the pens involved).
Good Luck