Game – SF Giants at KC Royals, starts approx 5:07 Pacific
Weather in KC – should not be a factor – forecast is clear and mild (for late October in KC), with game time temps in low to mid 50s and light winds
PITCHING MATCH-UP:
Giants RH Tim Hudson (2014: reg season 9-14, 3.6 ERA, TY’s playoffs 0-1, 3.72 ERA), including taking the loss vs Guthrie in Giants’ 2-3 home loss in game 3
VS
Royals RH Jeremy Guthrie (2014: reg seas 14-11. 4.06 ERA, TY’s playoffs 1-0, 2.70 ERA), including getting the win over Hudson in KC’s 3-2 game 3 win at SF
Picks
Game - KC Royals on ML listing Guthrie and Hudson, for 2.5 units at 140 or 2 units at -145 or 150, but pass at -155>)
3 Partial game picks
F5 innings – 3 or 3.5 units on KC, with two picks - one on F5 ML for 2.5 units at -135 or 140, or 2 units at -145, and the other for one unit on the F5 RL, at -1/2 run and odds of +105 to -105
2H (innings 6-9, plus extra innings, if any)- KC -120 or 125 for 2 units, based on strength of KC bullpen, especially at home (this also a partial hedge against our F5 picks on KC, in case game remains tight thru F5 innings, but KC pulls ahead in late innings for the win, as occurred in game 2 of this series (where game was tied 2-2 after 5, but KC scored 5 runs in the sixth to win, 7-2)
2 Team totals picks
KC team total Over 3.5 runs (-120 or 125 odds) for 2 units
SFG team total Over 3 runs (-115 to 125 odds) for 2 units (pass at 3.5 runs) – this team total Over play on SFG is a partial hedge against our picks on KC, since we don’t see SF winning tonite unless they score 3> runs
Support for my picks on KC over SF
Kansas City avoided elimination with a convincing victory last nite in Game 6, and either the host Royals or the visiting San Francisco Giants will be crowned champions after the conclusion of Game 7 of the World Series tonite, and our money is on the Royals to be wearing the crown in the winner’s circle. San Francisco was in position to win the series last nite, but the Royals racked up 15 hits and rolled to a 10-0 victory. The Giants have struggled to get strong outings from their starters when Giants ace “Mad Bum” (Madison Bumgarner) doesn’t pitch, and that factor stuck out like a sore thumb in last nite’s game 6, where starter Jake Peavy lasted just 1 1/3 innings while being charged with five runs. With San Francisco looking to win its third title in five seasons, but with Bumgarner having just two days’ rest after having pitched a complete game on Sunday, where he threw 117 pitches, and his availability thus being limited to relief duty in tonite’s finale, we don’t like the Giants’ chances of pulling that off, despite their having clinched their World Series crowns on the road in both 2012 (at Detroit) and 2010 (at Texas).
Kansas City has won six of its 7 home playoff games TY, including two of its three home games in this series (losing only to Bumgarner), as the Royals’ line-up has a different feel to it when it includes designated hitter Billy Butler, who was reduced to being a pinch hitter for the 3 games in SF, with DHs not allowed in the NL. “Billy is a big presence in that line-up offensively for us,” Royals manager Ned Yost said in a press conference. “Right in the middle of the lineup, he’s been a proven run producer and it’s just a big comfort having him back in there.” And Kansas City 1B Eric Hosmer has had a “hot bat” throughout the playoffs, with two hits last nite to raise his post-season total to 20, tying the franchise mark set by Willie Wilson (1985).
While SF has had near legendary success on the road in their last 3 playoff appearances, including the 2010 and 2012 World Series, plus a good 5-3 TY, they have been just ordinary in their 5 playoff roadies TY when “Mad Bum” has not been their starter, going just a “pedestrian” 2-3 in those 5 games, including a pair of (2-7 and 0-10) blowout losses in KC, where they are now 1-5 TY, including the 0-3 regular season sweep they suffered there in August, including a loss by Mad Bum. Giants’ Hunter Pence has been hot in the playoffs, especially in this series, but Giants C Buster Posey is just 4-for-22 in the World Series, and doesn’t have an extra-base hit in the post-season.
For SF on the mound, instead of an arm-weary “Mad Bum,” it’s rested (but not nearly as good) RH Tim Hudson (2014: reg season 9-14, 3.6 ERA, TY’s playoffs 0-1, 3.72 ERA), in a pitching re-match of game 3 in SF, where Hudson took the loss vs tonite’s KC starter, Guthrie, in Giants’ 2-3 home loss, giving up three runs and four hits in 5 2/3 innings in his first career World Series start. He has walked just one batter in 19 1/3 post-season innings while striking out 15 this October, but Hudson has found victories hard to come by in the post-season, where he has a decent 3.53 ERA, but is 1-4 with in 13 career (post-season) appearances (12 starts).
In opposition, the Royals start veteran RH Jeremy Guthrie (2014: reg seas 14-11. 4.06 ERA, TY’s playoffs 1-0, 2.70 ERA), a former stalwart of the Stanford pitching staff in his college days, getting the win over Hudson in KC’s 3-2 game 3 win at SF when he allowed two runs and four hits in five innings. Guthrie, who also pitched well in his other playoff start TY, a 2-1 KC home win over Balt in the ALCS, giving up just one run in 5 IP, but got a ND with KC not scoring the winning run until the sixth, said he is ready for the task of pitching in a World Series Game 7 as Kansas City looks for its first MLB title since 1985. “I feel like I’m in as good of shape and in as good position to pitch well as I’ve been all season long,” Guthrie said in his Tuesday nite press conference, after all eyes shifted to him after game 6. “And that’s a good place to be, to not have to worry about being fatigued or not have to worry about any lingering soreness.”
To sum it all up, the Royals not only have home field advantage, where they are 6-1 this post season, they also have a significant pitching advantage tonite, mainly in the bullpen, as Guthrie has been better than Hudson in the playoffs, and the Royals 3 stud relievers (Davis, Herrera and closer Holland, the latter now 93-5 L2Y in save opps, incl 46-2 TY and 7-0 in TY’s playoffs) are all well rested and can each pitch multiple innings if needed. SF ace Bumgarner may be available for a few innings in a limited relief role, but on such short rest, we wouldn't be shocked if he struggled a bit. And last but certainly not least, the home team has not lost a World Series Game 7 in 35 years, including a 9-0 KC game 7 home blowout win over St Louis in their last World series appearance in 1985, with the last team to win a World Series Game 7 on the road being the “We are Family” Pittsburgh Pirates (Willie Stargel et. al.), who defeated the Baltimore Orioles in 1979.