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Andre Gomes NBA Sunday + NFL & NBA Free Plays Inside

andre gomes

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Posted

on Sun, Nov 18 2012 8:19 AM

November 12th Daily Message:

The NBA season continued yesterday and we are coming from a 2-2 day. These results put us with a profit of +31.55 units on 3-4-5 Money Management System in just thirteen days of competition! I'm also hitting around 59% of my NBA Plays! On the NFL, we are coming from 4-4 day and we'll be trying to end this week with a win on MNF tonight!

Today, we have 8 games on the NBA card. We have also NFL Week 10 MNF with Kansas City playing at Pittsburgh.

Don't forget the long-term NBA packages are already available! Stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of plays during the day!

Yesterday's Recap:

NFL Week 10 - 215 Buffalo Bills @ 216 New England Patriots

Projected Line: New England by 17 points

Most of the recent games between these two teams have ended with the Patriots crushing the Bills on a very high scoring game and today's game should be no exception. Even though he's not having a MVP kind of season, Tom Brady is still having a super solid season with a 16/3 TD/INT ratio, while being in the top 10 in all of the major quarterback stats in the game, including completions percentage, yards per pass attempt, quarterback rating, third down conversion and red zone efficiency. After a couple of injuries, his offensive line is now back at a decent level and they should have no problems in crushing the Bills defense, which is specially bad in the clutch moments by being ranked dead last in the league in third down conversion allowed and red zone efficiency allowed. If the Patriots have an offensive edge over Buffalo on their passing game, that also happens with their running game, which is being a very pleasant surprise this season and they should be able to crush the Bills run defense, which is the worst run defense I've ever seen by allowing a ridiculous 5.7 rushing yards per carry! New England scored 52 points in Buffalo back in week 4 and I wouldn't be surprised if they get near to this number once again today, even though they will be without their TE Aaron Hernandez for today's game.

Buffalo's offense has been very inconsistent this season and I can't expect great things from Ryan Fitzpatrick today. He's being an average quarterback and even though the Patriots have indeed a poor pass defense, they aren't as bad as they were last season, while Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't able to keep throwing big passes throughout the whole game, something that his team would need today to be able to keep up with New England's fast paced and super efficient offense. Buffalo has indeed a good running game, with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller forming an excellent duo of running backs, however New England is #2 on the league on rushing yards allowed per carry with just 3.5 yards and they should be able to limit Buffalo's offensive production today. I believe the Bills will score a decent number of points today, the problem is that New England is going to put another ridiculous number of points on them. New England is coming from a bye week, they have a very good spot for today and so, I expect a clear double digits points win for them today. I'll be taking the Patriots in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 216 New England Patriots (-13,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Buffalo 31 New England 37

NFL Week 10 - 219 San Diego Chargers @ 220 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Line: Tampa Bay by 6 points

Both teams are coming from wins last week, however I have absolutely no doubt that Tampa Bay is on a better moment than San Diego right now. The Bucs offense is carrying a lot of momentum and they are #1 in the league on yards per play! Josh Freeman is having a career season and he has currently a 16/5 TD/INT ratio, while being #3 in yards per pass attempt, #9 in QB rating and #4 in red zone efficiency! He has a problem with his completion percentage, but he compensates that with some excellent big plays, where he keeps finding his receivers. If Tampa Bay was dangerous just with their passing game, they only got much more dangerous with the explosion of rookie RB Doug Martin, who has rushed for 386 yards on his last two games! The offensive line is also working very well, even with Carl Nicks out for the season, and Tampa Bay has definitely one of the best offenses in football right now. San Diego has a good run defense and an average pass defense, but considering the momentum the Bucs offense is currently carrying, I wouldn't be surprised if Doug Martin runs over the Chargers today, while San Diego struggles to stop the Bucs' passing game as well. Also note that San Diego is #31 in red zone efficiency allowed, while Tampa Bay is #4 in red zone efficiency, so the Bucs will have a good matchup to take advantage of the opportunities that they will surely have to score touchdowns.

If Tampa Bay's offense is currently amazing, the same can't be said about their secondary. However, I just don't trust Philip Rivers right now. He may have completed 18 of his 20 passes last week against Kansas City, but one of his two missed passes resulted in an easy interception on a terrible pass by Rivers. He's just being an average quarterback this season (#6 in completion percentage, #21 in yards per pass attempt, #13 in QB rating, #14 in third downs and #18 in red zone efficiency), while having a poor 12/10 TD/INT ratio. Tampa Bay has already intercepted the opposing quarterback 13 times this season, so don't be surprised if they also intercept Rivers today. The Chargers have an average running game to support their passing game, but Tampa Bay is #1 on run defense with 3.4 rushing yards allowed per carry and therefore, I don't expect Ryan Matthews and his teammates to have a positive game today.

Tampa Bay is carrying a lot of momentum right now, while San Diego was lucky to have faced Kansas City last week, in order to stop their losing streak because the truth is that the Chargers aren't playing well right now. I believe the Bucs will have a big offensive game today, while San Diego will struggle on offense, so I'll be taking Tampa Bay for another win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 220 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

Final Score: San Diego 24 Tampa Bay 34

NFL Week 10 - 221 Denver Broncos @ 222 Carolina Panthers

Projected Line: 43 points

I expect this game to be a surprisingly low scoring game. I know Peyton Manning is having a ridiculously good season, however he will be facing a very good defense today. Unlike what happened on Denver's last two games, where they faced the two poor pass defenses of New Orleans and Cincinnati, the Panthers are definitely improving on defense, after a very poor start of the season. They completely stopped RGIII last week and they have allowed just 16 points to Seattle, 19 points to Dallas, 23 points to Chicago and 13 points to Washington on their last four games. Not bad for a lowly team with a 2-6 record! The main reasons for the Panthers' good defensive performance are their pass rush who is working really well and a very good red zone defense, as they are #6 in the league in red zone efficiency allowed. I know Denver has a good offensive line and they are #2 in red zone efficiency, however I believe this is a letdown spot for Denver's offense, after a tough comeback win at Cincinnati last week and Carolina is certainly very motivated to play against Peyton Manning today.

The problem for the Panthers is that their offense keeps being a mess. Cam Newton is having a very disappointing sophomore season and even though he is #2 in yards per pass attempt, he is also #29 in completion percentage, #28 in QB rating and #20 in third down conversion, while posting a very poor 6/8 TD/INT ratio. The Panthers' offensive line is just average and it's expected that the Broncos' good pass rush put Newton in a lot of pressure today. Denver has been quite good in not allowing big passing plays to their opponents this season (#6 in yards per pass attempt), so I expect them to clearly limit Carolina's passing game today. The Panthers have a decent running game, but also in here Denver has a good run defense by being #6 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry with just 3.7 yards. Therefore, I expect Denver to have a good defensive game and limit the Panthers to a low offensive production today.

As I expect Carolina to not allow Peyton Manning to have another huge game and the Broncos to clearly stop the Panthers' offense, I believe the totals line is just too high for the kind of game we will have in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 221/222 Under 47 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

Final Score: Denver 36 Carolina 14

NFL Week 10 - 227 Atlanta Falcons @ 228 New Orleans Saints

Projected Line: 57 points

The story for this game is quite simple: two great offenses + two poor defenses = shootout! After a poor start of the season, Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints offense is now back at a very good level. Drew Brees has already a good 22/8 TD/INT ratio, while being #8 in QB rating, #6 in third down conversion and #1 in red zone efficiency! Atlanta's pass defense has been surviving with their takeaways (already 10 interceptions), as they are just #21 in completion percentage, #22 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #11 in quarterback rating allowed, #22 in third down conversion allowed and #22 in red zone efficiency allowed. Atlanta's pass rush has been average and they shouldn't put a lot of pressure on Drew Brees, who should have no problems in having a good game today. The Saints' running game also reappeared last week against Philadelphia and I expect them to give a good help to the Saints passing game, as Atlanta's run defense is quite poor by being #30 in the league with 4.9 rushing yards allowed per carry!

The problem for New Orleans is that Atlanta will also pound their very poor defense. Matt Ryan is having a very good season, he is working extremely well with Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner is also playing a bit better and Atlanta should have absolutely no problem in pounding the worst pass defense in the league and the second worst run defense in the league! Therefore, I expect this game to be a super high scoring game, with the winner scoring over 30 points and the loser being very close from that mark as well. So, even considering the high totals line, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 227/228 Over 53,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Atlanta 27 New Orleans 31

NFL Week 10 - 229 Detroit Lions @ 230 Minnesota Vikings

Projected Line: Detroit by 6 points

Even though both teams have a similar record, it's clear that Detroit is on the rise, while Minnesota is regressing very quickly, after a very good start of the season. Matthew Stafford struggled early on the season, but he has regained his confidence back and he is now playing at a decent level. The main proof that his confidence is back is the fact that he has been especially good in the clutch moments of the games by being #9 in third down conversion and #8 in red zone efficiency. Minnesota's pass defense doesn't scare anybody by being #20 in completion percentage allowed, #8 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #23 in QB rating allowed, #28 in third down conversion allowed and #18 in red zone efficiency allowed. Their opponents have also a combined of 14/4 TD/INT against them, so I really believe that Matthew Stafford will have a good game today, especially when the Lions' offensive line has been playing well and they should be able to handle the Vikings good pass rush. Mikel Leshoure will have a tough opponent today in the Vikings run defense, but he is in decent form and he should be also able to provide some support to his team's offense.

But the main problem for the Vikings is Christian Ponder's slump. After a decent start of the season, Ponder has been a complete mess lately, with a complete inability of throwing a big pass, something that has put him in #29 in the league in yards per pass attempt. He has just thrown 63 passing yards against Seattle last week and that was the second time in three games that he just couldn't throw the football, as he had just 58 passing yards against Arizona three weeks ago. With Percy Harvin doubtful for today, I seriously doubt things will change today. With the passing game simply not working, it's up to Adrian Peterson to carry the offense on his own. He has been amazing over the last few weeks, but he can't just do everything on his own and Detroit's run defense isn't terrible, so they should be able to somewhat limit the damage Peterson will do today. It's also important to note that Peterson is coming from a huge game in Seattle and he has missed a practice Thursday due to illness.

I believe Minnesota is regressing big time and with their defense being just average and their passing game being a mess, I just don't see how they can be competitive against a Lions team that is carrying momentum right now and they look ready to get revenge over their divisional rivals, after losing at home with Minnesota back in week 4. I expect a comfortable win for Detroit today and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 229 Detroit Lions (-2,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes

Final Score: Detroit 24 Minnesota 34

2-Team 6pts Teaser:

NFL Week 10 - 223 Tennessee Titans @ 224 Miami Dolphins

NFL Week 10 - 225 Oakland Raiders @ 226 Baltimore Ravens

A very strong wind is expected in today's game between Miami and Tennessee, so don't be surprised if the Titans keep doing what they were doing the whole time last week against Chicago: turning over the football. Jake Locker returns today to the field after being out for a month of a half due to a shoulder injury and he will immediately face one of the best defenses in football, who is coming from a poor showing in Indianapolis and so, they will look to bounce back today. Chris Johnson will also face one of the best run defenses in the league, so I really expect Miami to limit Tennessee's offense to a low efficiency level today. On the other hand, Ryan Tannehill is working very well with Brian Hartline and they should be able to expose the Titans' terrible secondary today. Tennessee's run defense is also quite poor, so Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush have also a good opportunity to have a good game today. I expect Miami to shutdown the Titans offense today, while the Dolphins should be able to have a decent offensive game against Tennessee's poor defense, so I believe the Dolphins will easily win this game.

Even with their defense crushed with injuries, Baltimore should have no problems in winning this game. Joe Flacco isn't having a wonderful season, but Oakland's pass defense is also quite poor, so I wouldn't be surprised if Flacco actually has a good game today. Ray Rice should also be able to pound the Raiders' struggling run defense, who got completely ran over by Doug Martin last week. On the other hand, both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are out for today, so Oakland will have a running game efficiency close to zero today. Therefore, Carson Palmer will have to throw a lot today and he generally takes a lot of risks and that's a recipe for disaster when you face a Ravens defense that has just allowed six TD passes to their opponents this season. Baltimore should have no problems in winning this home game against the Raiders and so, I'll take them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 224 Miami Dolphins pk x 226 Baltimore Ravens (-1,5) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

Final Score: TEN 37 MIA 3 / OAK 20 BAL 55

NFL Week 10 - 237 Houston Texans @ 238 Chicago Bears

Projected Line: 36 points | Houston by 3 points

This is one of the biggest games of the season so far, as both teams currently carry a 7-1 record. However, I believe Houston is a much more solid team than the Bears and they will show that tonight with a very important win for them. Matt Schaub is having a very solid season with 12/4 TD/INT ratio, while being #12 in completion percentage, #6 in yards per pass attempt, #7 in QB rating, #5 in third down conversion and #10 in red zone efficiency. The Texans offensive line have also been quite good this season and they should be able to control the Bears good pass rush today. Chicago has been very impressive on defense today, however note that they really depend on takeaways to stop their opponents from scoring and helping a quite average offensive unit to put points on the scoreboard. Matt Schaub is having a very solid season, he is quite experienced and I don't believe he will fall in the same traps that other much poorer and inexperienced fell against the Bears in previous weeks. Even though Chicago is 7-1 right now, the only team they defeated that currently has a positive record was Indianapolis and back in week 1, in Andrew Luck's NFL debut! Houston runs a very conservative offense by running the football a lot and they should be able to avoid turnovers today, with Matt Schaub having an unimpressive but solid performance, while Arian Foster will pound the football with decent effectiveness against an average Bears run defense that is #22 on the league in rushing yards allowed per carry.

With the Texans not turning over the football, the Bears' offense will heavily struggle in creating scoring opportunities against probably the best defense in football right now. Jay Cutler is having an average season with a 12/8 TD/INT ratio, while being #23 in completions percentage, #19 in yards per pass attempt, #18 in quarterback rating, #15 in third downs conversion and #23 in red zone efficiency. Now against Houston's great pass defense (#1 in completion percentage allowed, #4 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #3 in QB rating allowed, #1 in third down conversion allowed and #7 in red zone efficiency allowed), I really expect Jay Cutler to struggle today, especially when the Texans' great pass rush will put a lot of pressure on the Bears quite poor offensive line. Chicago's running game is quite decent as well with Matt Forte and Michael Bush, but also in here Houston defends quite well by being #9 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry.

On a game that will be played under rain and a lot of wind, I expect Houston to be able to outplay Chicago due to the fact they have a better quarterback, a much better offensive line to protect their quarterback from the opposing quality pass rush and also a better run defense. I believe this game will turn into a very physical game, with both teams using the running game a lot, with Houston prevailing on a low scoring contest. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Texans and the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 237/238 Under 40 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 237 Houston Texans (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Houston 13 Chicago 6

NBA - 501 Orlando Magic @ 502 Brooklyn Nets

Projected Line: 187 points

This is the second game between these two teams in just three days, with Brooklyn having crushed Orlando by 107-68 last Friday! The Magic were a mess defensively and they weren't better on offense. They didn't go to the free throw line, they had a ridiculously amount of poor shots and they had a lot of turnovers. They will pass the ball to Glen Davis, Brooklyn would double team him and then, the Magic wouldn't just be able to rotate the ball. Jameer Nelson's absence is really making them struggle.

Brooklyn is being terrible on defending on the inside by being just #25 on post up defense, while they also can't stop the cuts from their opponents (#26). But they aren't getting exposed on that against Orlando, as the Magic don't have a good player that can pound them on the inside. Well, they have Glen Davis, but the Nets can easily double team team. Without Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando is terrible on pick and rolls and with the Nets being #1 on pick and roll defense, nothing is working for the Magic offensively on this matchup. That's why they scored 68 points last Friday.

Of course Orlando will come to this game with more aggressiveness and they won't have just 8 free throw attempts this time. However, they won't be able to be competitive via their offense, so they will need to put a lot of effort on their defense. Brooklyn dominated the rebounds with 15 offensive rebounds and 6-8 FG on offensive rebound shots last Friday, however the Nets offense is still a work in progress and even though they had such an easy game last Friday, the truth is that they only had 21 assists for an assists rate of just 51.22%! They scored a lot of points because they shot extremely well from the outside with 2-2 FG from 10-15 feet, 8-18 FG from 16-23 feet and 9-23 3pts. With Orlando having a bigger defensive effort today and with Brooklyn not having a great ball movement, I expect the Nets to struggle more on offense today.

I believe Orlando will be making a good defensive effort today, while they can't really do anything on offense against the Nets, so I expect a low scoring game in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Final Score: Orlando 74 Brooklyn 82

NBA - 503 Atlanta Hawks @ 504 Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Line: 201 points | LA Clippers by 3 points

Atlanta is 2-2 right now, but they are coming from three competitive games against good teams: Oklahoma City, Indiana and Miami. The fact that they were competitive even with a lot of changes on their roster is a sign of good coaching. The Hawks are coming from a home loss against Miami, where they managed to have a mini comeback during the 4th quarter, but when they tied the game, they immediately two free throws and an alley hoop layup that could have tied them in the score once again. Jeff Teague continues being very assertive in both passing and shooting with 7-8 FG, 11 assists and 2 turnovers. Atlanta has a good ball movement that allows them to create good looks on the outside, with both Kyle Korver and Anthony Morrow taking advantage of that, while they are also being quite good on their pick and roll game with Al Horford and the guards.

The Hawks have deadly shooters and they are extremely effective on transition. They will have a Clippers defense that has been struggling exactly where the Hawks offense is performing well, as the Clippers are just #20 on transition defense, #20 on post ups and #18 in pick and roll ball handler. These are exactly the three areas where Atlanta has been impressive early on. The Clippers did a good job on defense over the last two games, but it was due to pure bad shooting from their opponents, with Portland shooting 8-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-20 3pts, while San Antonio shot 5-14 FG and 8-23 FG from these areas as well.

On the other side, the Clippers offense is playing very well. Del Negro's decision of pushing up the pace is working well, as the Clippers are not only #1 in the league in fast break points per game with 19.7 ppg, as they are also quite effective by being #6 in PPP (points per possession). Note that Atlanta adopted the same style this season and they are #2 in fast break points with 18.0 ppg and #4 in PPP! Just like the Clippers, Atlanta is a bad transition defensive team by allowing 1.26 PPP (#24)! That's one of the reasons why I like the over in here, as a lot of easy points will be scored today.

But the Clippers have been great on offense in other areas as well. Chris Paul is dominating on the pick and rolls, with the Clippers being #2 in the league in this area, while they are also hitting well from the outside by being in the top 10 in 10-15 feet, 16-23 feet and 3pts shooting! Both benches have depth and they are good offensively. Atlanta has some good offensive players in Devin Harris, Anthony Morrow and Louis Williams, while the Clippers have Eric Bledsoe and Jamal Crawford coming off the bench as well.

Atlanta is a very underrated team right now. Nobody talks about them, but the team has already shown that they can be competitive, as they won at Oklahoma City and they were tied in the last minute against Miami. I expect the Hawks to surprise the Clippers today, on a high scoring game, and therefore, I'll be taking both Atlanta and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Atlanta Hawks (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Final Score: Atlanta 76 LA Clippers 89

NBA - 507 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 508 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Line: 198 points

We took the Under on a Triple Dime Play in Cleveland's last game, as I expected the Cavaliers to have to a good defensive bounce back in that game. The truth is that they had that bounce back during the first quarter, as they held the Suns to 31.6% FG, while forcing eight opponents. The problem is that everything was so easy for them on offense (14-22 63,6% FG) that they ended the 1st quarter with a 37-16 lead. As Cleveland is a young team, they quickly lost their defensive focus and they paid the price for that, as after scoring just 16 points in the 1st quarter, Phoenix scored 33, 27 and 31 points in the remaining quarters!

"It was easy in the first quarter," a grim coach Byron Scott said after the Cavs dropped to 2-4 overall, 1-3 on this six game trip that will continue Sunday at Oklahoma City and Tuesday at Brooklyn. "Our guys defensively were aggressive and focused. From that point on, it just seemed like the more the game went on, the less focused we got, the more mistakes we started to make. That's on both ends of the floor."

Kyrie Irving had no energy in the second half and Cleveland's imploded offensively. They will struggle tonight on offense in Oklahoma City, as the Thunder lost at home against the Cavaliers last season and so, they won't take this game lightly. Oklahoma City isn't a top 5 defensive team in pick and rolls, but they are near the top 10 and while Russell Westbrook will chase Kyrie Irving, Thabo Sefolosha will do the same to Dion Waiters.

I believe Cleveland will be more focused on defense tonight and not by just 12 minutes, like it happened on their last game in Phoenix. Oklahoma City's offense is still quite inconsistent this season and I believe they won't have a huge game tonight. Serge Ibaka had an awesome game against Detroit, but I don't believe he can duplicate the 6-7 FG from 16-23 feet that he shot in that game.

I expect Oklahoma City to put a lot of problems to Cleveland's offense tonight, while the Cavs will also show good effort on defense, therefore I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Cleveland 91 Oklahoma City 106

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andre gomes

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Posted

on Mon, Nov 12 2012 7:02 AM

NBA 11/11 Advanced Stats Numbers:

Orlando at Brooklyn						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T	PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
ORL	17	18	18	21	74	88.76	82.96	0.37	11.66	18.87	15.66
BK	35	15	13	19	82		92.84	0.42	14.42	27.91	21.79


Atlanta at L.A. Clippers						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T	PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
ATL	19	18	23	16	76	88.11	86.96	0.48	21.77	25.00	9.72
LAC	18	21	26	24	89		100.20	0.49	14.92	20.51	9.76


Miami at Memphis						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T	PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
MIA	21	20	25	20	86	91.62	95.46	0.41	12.86	31.91	27.85
MEM	22	34	20	28	104		111.64	0.52	13.88	28.21	16.28


Cleveland at Oklahoma City						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T	PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
CLE	21	25	27	18	91	94.94	96.61	0.45	13.87	21.28	19.28
OKC	27	30	22	27	106		110.77	0.60	20.25	13.33	26.03


Sacramento at L.A. Lakers						Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T	PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
SAC	22	26	18	24	90	90.89	98.52	0.44	11.91	30.43	12.22
LAL	29	28	22	24	103		113.90	0.49	16.04	41.86	28.40

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andre gomes

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Posted

on Mon, Nov 12 2012 3:32 PM

NOTE: Tonight's NBA Package is now fully uploaded: 7 Plays (6 Premium Plays + 1 Free Premium Play) for today!

Good luck everybody! Yes

Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | Blogs
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andre gomes

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Posted

on Mon, Nov 12 2012 3:33 PM

NBA Free Premium Play for Today:

NBA - 707 Boston Celtics @ 708 Chicago Bulls

Projected Line: pk line

I like the Celtics in here. I watched their games against Philadelphia and in Milwaukee, where their main two weaknesses were exposed: their poor rebounding and they inability to stop the penetrations from the opposing guards, as they were exposed by Jrue Holliday and Monta Ellis, as Boston isn't good on the first defensive step and with that they open space on the backcourt for their opponents to shoot. If it's a fact that Chicago will definitely have a rebounding edge on this contest, the truth is that the Bulls don't have guards that really like to penetrate into the basket, as Rip Hamilton is a jump shooter and Nate Robinson only does that at times, besides the fact he is undersized and doesn't scare Boston.

Chicago keeps having problems in terms of offensive continuity between the first and second unit and things won't get easy for them, with Kirk Hinrich being out of tonight's game, something that will put Nate Robinson in the starting line, leaving the second unit without their best scorer that generally comes off the bench. The Bulls are #1 on pick and roll ball handler with 1.08 PPP (points per possession), but that's mostly due to Kirk Hinrich's excellent pick and rolls, as he has 1.25 PPP on this kind of play! Chicago is also very strong at the rim by shooting 67% FG at this area and the Celtics aren't good at defending at the rim. However, Boston struggles at the rim, but the damage is generally done via the opposing guards, while Chicago generally attacks the rim with their big men.

Boston is coming from a good win at Milwaukee, where Paul Pierce moving better than in the other games. The Celtics continues to have a good ball movement, but it is focused on the perimeter. The good news is that they are shooting quite well, with 10-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-15 3pts. Meanwhile, Paul Pierce keeps being excellent down the stretch. The only problem of the Celtics offense against the Bucks was on the pick and roll ball handler plays, with just 2-10 FG and 0.47 PPP, with Rajon Rondo having a poor game. However, he will have a clear edge against Nate Robinson and while the Bulls are generally a good pick and roll ball handler defense, that is mostly due to Kirk Hinrich's excellent defense (#3 in the league with 0.56 PPP). With Hinrich out for tonight's game, I expect Rajon Rondo to expose Nate Robinson's problems in defending pick and roll plays tonight.

Both teams shoot a lot from the 16-23 feet area, with Boston being #1 on volume of shots from this area with 35.4% and Chicago being #2 with 32.7%. The big difference is that the Celtics are shooting 45% FG from this area, while Chicago is just shooting 39% FG! I believe the Celtics will be able to compensate Chicago's edge on rebounding and down low with some excellent pick and rolls and perimeter shooting, mostly thanks to Kirk Hinrich's absence that causes much more problems to the Bulls than most people think. Therefore, I'll be taking the Celtics tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Boston Celtics (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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Posted

on Tue, Nov 13 2012 7:00 AM

November 13th Daily Message:

The NBA season continued yesterday and we are coming from a great 5-2 day. These results put us with a profit of +39.95 units on 3-4-5 Money Management System in just two weeks of competition! I'm also hitting around 60% of my NBA Plays! On the NFL, we lost our MNF Play on Pittsburgh, with Ben Roethlisberger getting injured mid-game and pretty much ruining our chances of winning the play!

So, for today, we have 6 games on the NBA card. I'll be also recapping NFL Week 10 in order to bounce back next week.

By the way, during the following three days, I have a 20% discount promo on my 7 days and 30 days Packages. It's a great opportunity to follow me for the following week/month at an excellent price!

Don't forget the long-term NBA packages are already available! Stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of plays during the day!

Yesterday's Recap:

NBA - 701 Utah Jazz @ 702 Toronto Raptors

Projected Line: Utah by 6 points

Toronto is coming from a home loss against Philadelphia, where after building a small lead in the first quarter, they were outscored in the second quarter by a ridiculous 32-7, mostly due to the fact that Toronto's second unit had zero offensive ability with Ed Davis, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza, Terrence Ross and John Lucas! With Kyle Lowry and Landry Fields injured, Toronto inserted into the lineup Jose Calderon and Alan Anderson, in a move that left their second unit without any decent scorer. With Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields and Alan Anderson out for tonight's game, Toronto will have to insert either Dominic McGuire or rookie Terrence Ross in the starting lineup and this will cause their second unit to be even weaker than they were against the 76ers, where they managed to shoot 2-20 FG during the second quarter of that game.

With so many absences, Toronto will become a predictable team on offense, while facing a tough matchup on defense for them. Even though they had one of the best rim defenses last season, the Raptors are allowing 68% FG at the rim to their opponents this season and this is a bad sign when you face an Utah team, with a powerful frontcourt, who is currently shooting 70% FG at the rim this season. With Mo Williams out due to injury, Utah is now starting Jamaal Tinsley at the PG position and this lineup change has made the Jazz comeback to their last season's roots, when they were all about pounding their opponents down low. This is why they crushed Phoenix on their last game, with Paul Millsap shooting 7-11 FG, Al Jefferson 12-20 FG, Derrick Favors 4-5 FG and Enes Kanter 3-3 FG, for a combined of 28-39 (72%) FG! The Jazz shot 21-27 FG at the rim and 8-12 FG on post up plays during that game, in a very dominant performance of their frontcourt. With Toronto struggling to defend the paint this season, I expect Utah to pound them down low.

Not only Utah will have a clear edge on their offense down low, as they will certainly have more options on their bench, while facing a terrible Raptors second unit that can't score to save their lives. The Jazz has a good spot to pick up a good road win against a depleted Raptors lineup and therefore, I'll take Utah tonight for a comfortable win.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Utah Jazz (-2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Final Score: Utah 140 Toronto 133

NBA - 703 Milwaukee Bucks @ 704 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Line: 192 points

Milwaukee played two games against Philadelphia last season after the Monta Ellis trade and those games were fast paced games, so I expect tonight's game to be also fast paced. What improved in Philadelphia on their last two games in comparison to the start of the season was that they improved on transitions and spot up plays, with their two guards Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner taking better decisions while attacking the rim. They are coming from a road win in Toronto, where they shot 9-10 FG and had a 1.82 PPP on transition plays! They also played well in terms of spot up plays and we have to give merit as well to Thaddeus Young and Dorell Wright, who are now playing better on offense. Jason Richardson is also probable for tonight, so the Sixers will have one more good shooter available to have a good offensive night against the poor perimeter defense of the Bucks.

Milwaukee is coming from a close loss at home against Boston, where Monta Ellis played well in terms of attacking the rim with 7-10 FG! The problem was Brandon Jennings who didn't do the same and decided to shoot from the perimeter and quite poorly, as he shot 0-1 FG at the rim, 0-2 FG from 10-15 feet, 0-1 FG from 16-23 feet and especially 1-7 3pts! Mike Dunleavy was also in foul trouble and he had little impact on the game with 1-4 FG in 14 minutes. Milwaukee penetrated and performed kick out plays to the perimeter, but they just couldn't shoot well with 3-19 3pts, as besides Brandon Jennings, also Ersan Ilyasova keeps struggling. With Mike Dunleavy struggling coming off the bench, the Bucks super potent on offense second unit simply didn't work well.

Today, I expect a bounce back from Brandon Jennings and Mike Dunleavy, while helping the Bucks in having a good offensive night. Philadelphia is playing well on offense right now and with both teams having good offensive nights on a fast paced game, I see value on the Over and I'll take it in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Milwaukee 105 Philadelphia 96

NBA - 705 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 706 Detroit Pistons

Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 3 points

This is a terrible spot for Oklahoma City, as they will be playing their fourth game in five nights, having played last night at home against Cleveland, in a relatively close game, where their starters were forced to play major minutes. Even though the Thunder currently hold a 5-2 record, the truth is that they are struggling big time in two areas. First of all, they are struggling on rebounding, as they grabbed just 56.19%, 48.76%, 46.32%, 51.21%, 46.53%, 44.73% and 46.03% of the rebounds in their games, with these rebounding issues being clearly worse on their last three games against Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland. Oklahoma City is also struggling on the ball movement by having a terrible A/TO ratio. If it's normal that they don't have a lot of assists due to the fact that they have Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on their roster, the truth is that the Thunder is struggling a lot on turnovers, as they have committed 21, 19, 22, 17 and 21 turnovers on their last five games, while having a 19.1% turnover ratio per possession, the second worst mark in the whole league.

They will be facing a Pistons team that has revenge on their mind after losing to Oklahoma City last Friday and they have good chances to make this game very competitive. Besides the fact that the Thunder have a terrible spot tonight and they are struggling on rebounding and turnovers, the truth is that Detroit is capable of forcing turnovers, as they are #13 in opponent turnovers per possession with 16.5%. I believe Detroit will make a big effort tonight against a top team on a terrible spot and so, I'll be taking the Pistons in here on a generous home underdog spread.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Detroit Pistons (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Oklahoma City 92 Detroit 90

NBA - 707 Boston Celtics @ 708 Chicago Bulls

Projected Line: pk line

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Boston Celtics (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Boston 101 Chicago 95

NBA - 709 Miami Heat @ 710 Houston Rockets

Projected Line: Miami by 10 points

Miami is coming from a loss in Memphis last night, in a game where the Grizzlies were amazing in both ends of the floor. Miami's game plan to limit Memphis' frontcourt worked because the Grizzlies shot just 15-31 FG at the rim and 4-8 FG from 3-9 feet, with Marc Gasol shooting just 1-6 FG and the whole Grizzlies shooting just 1-9 FG on post up plays! The problem is that Miami allowed Memphis to have more space on the outside and even though the Grizzlies were just #29 on the league in spot up plays, the truth is that they were red hot on the outside with 14-24 3pts! Wayne Ellington was red hot with 7-11 3pts and led the Grizzlies on this huge perimeter shooting night. On defense, Memphis' good perimeter defense worked extremely well, as Miami shot just 1-7 on pick and roll ball handler, 4-9 FG on cuts and even just 5-16 on spot up plays. The only way Miami really had to score in the game was via transition plays with 23 fast break points!

For tonight's game in Houston, Miami will have a better matchup. Houston is the team in the league who has a bigger volume on shots at the rim with 32 FGA per game, but they aren't very efficient with just 61% FG in those shots, an efficiency that puts them out of the top 20! Houston doesn't have anybody on the frontcourt that forces the Heat to double team a player, as Omer Asik is limited on offense and Patrick Patterson also doesn't impress, so Miami won't need to worry with Houston's frontcourt tonight. Miami has been a good defensive team at the rim, as they showed yesterday, by allowing just 60% FG! Houston's offense depends a lot from James Harden and Jeremy Lin on their pick and roll plays, where they are efficient by being #8 in the league with 0.82 PPP. However, the problem is that Miami can put a lot of pressure on the ball handler, as you may remember from last season's game between the Heat and the Knicks, where Miami put loads of pressure on Lin and made him struggle big time. The Rockets have also been very turnover prone on this early season and Miami on a bounce back spot tonight has a good shot to force a good number of turnovers tonight.

The Rockets have a quite bad defense on transition plays and on their game against the Nuggets, Houston was completely outmatched in the fast break department, as Kenneth Faried, Ty Lawson and Corey Brewer consistently beat the Rockets up the court, forcing them to allow 21 fast break points to Denver. Also against the Hawks, Houston allowed 33 fast break points, so I believe Miami will pound Houston tonight on transition plays as well.

This is a good spot for Miami, even though they are on a back to back spot, as they had a blowout loss yesterday and nobody played 40 minutes or more. Houston's second unit is very poor with only Carlos Delfino giving some quality to the team, so I expect a fired up Miami to blowout the Rockets tonight, as they should be able to stop the Rockets' offense and pound Houston at the offensive end with their transitions and excellent all-around offense. I'm taking the Heat in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Miami Heat (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Miami 113 Houston 110

NBA - 711 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 712 Dallas Mavericks

Projected Line: Dallas by 4 points

Both teams are coming from losses, as Dallas lost in overtime at Charlotte, while Minnesota lost at Chicago. The Timberwolves are shorthanded for tonight, as they have been playing without Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, J.J. Barea and now Chase Budinger as well and perhaps also Brandon Roy. But as this isn't a back to back spot, I believe the Timberwolves will be okay for tonight, especially as these absences give more playing time to Alexey Shved, who is the team's best SG.

Dallas will have some edge on the guards, but Minnesota will have a clear edge in here down low and on rebounding with Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko. I don't believe the Mavericks have a better team than Minnesota right now, as they are both shorthanded right now and if coach Rick Carlisle think that his team can win games against decent teams while grabbing just 45% of the rebounds and committing almost 20 turnovers per game, good luck with that. The Timberwolves have an interesting team and Dallas is far from being impressive on this early season, therefore I expect Minnesota to be very competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Minnesota Timberwolves (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Minnesota 90 Dallas 82

NBA - 713 Denver Nuggets @ 714 Phoenix Suns

Projected Line: Denver by 8 points

Denver is a complete nightmare matchup for the Suns. Phoenix has absolutely no bench and their starting unit has very poor athleticism, especially on the frontcourt. This was why they got so pounded down low on their last game in Utah, while they are also just #22 in the league in defensive rebounding, while allowing 65% FG at the rim. These struggles will be completely exposed by the Nuggets tonight.

Denver is completely pounding their opponents down low. After a poor start of the season, Denver has scored 14, 16, 21 and 20 fast break points and 56, 44, 46 and 66 points in the paint over their last four games! Kenneth Faried has been amazing and Denver is the best offensive rebound team in the league right now. Phoenix could only be competitive on this game if they were efficient on offense, but that won't happen. The Suns have a poor ball movement and their offense relies on Goran Dragic and his pick and roll plays, but Denver now with Andre Iguodala is an excellent team in defending this kind of play by allowing just 0.56 PPP (#2 on the league).

The Nuggets should be able to pound the Suns on offense tonight, while they should also cause problems to Phoenix's offense, therefore I expect an easy win for Denver and therefore, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713 Denver Nuggets (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Denver 100 Phoenix 110

NFL Week 10 - 239 Kansas City Chiefs @ 240 Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Line: Pittsburgh by 17 points

It's very hard to expect something in here but a very easy win for Pittsburgh. After a poor start of the season, the Steelers have woken up and they have won four of their last five games, including three wins on the last three weeks against Cincinnati on the road, Washington at home and the NY Giants on the road. Ben Roethlisberger is having a very solid solid with a 16/4 TD/INT ratio, while being #5 in completion percentage, #11 in yards per pass attempt, #5 in QB rating and #1 in third down conversion, while the running game started terribly, but once Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer started getting carries and gaining momentum, the Steelers' running game started producing good yardage, giving an excellent support to the passing game, something that has turned the Steelers into one of the best offenses in the league. The offensive line is also having a good season and Pittsburgh should have no problems in putting a good number of points tonight over a Chiefs' pass defense that allows a lot of big plays (dead last in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt and in QB rating allowed) and a run defense that isn't much better (#28 with 4.6 rushing yards allowed per carry). Even though tonight's game will be played under a lot of rain and with low temperatures, the Steelers are more than used to these poor conditions and they should be able to pound the weak Chiefs defense tonight.

On the other hand, I smell a disaster for Matt Cassel, as he has been a disaster in almost every game this season, let alone on a game played under a lot of rain, strong wind and against a good Steelers defense. The Chiefs have turned the ball over 29 times in eight games and under such poor weather conditions, I just can't expect Kansas City's offense to protect the ball well tonight. Their only chance of getting some offensive production tonight is via their running game with Jamaal Charles, but not only Pittsburgh has a decent run defense (#9 on the league with 4.0 yards allowed per carry), as Charles is currently banged up with a neck injury sustained in last week's game in San Diego. Besides that, the Chiefs will most likely get behind in the score fast (they are yet to lead a game in regular time this season) and so, they will eventually abandon the running game and I just can't see Matt Cassel not struggling tonight against a good Steelers pass defense that leads the league in yards allowed per pass attempt, while being also #3 in the league in completion percentage allowed.

Pittsburgh also has an edge on special teams (even with punt returner Antonio Brown out for tonight) and so, I don't believe the Steelers will struggle in front of National TV against one of the worst teams in the league. I expect a clear blowout for Pittsburgh for tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 240 Pittsburgh Steelers (-12,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Final Score: Kansas City 13 Pittsburgh 16

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andre gomes

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Posted

on Tue, Nov 13 2012 7:01 AM

NBA 11/12 Advanced Stats Numbers:

Utah at Toronto							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	OT	T	PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
UTA	26	26	30	22	36	140	87.08	122.63	0.57	13.85	25.58	36.56
TOR	28	29	30	17	29	133		116.23	0.51	12.93	36.36	21.30


Milwaukee at Philadelphia							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
MIL	34	28	21	22	105		99.82	104.25	0.56	20.74	18.18	20.00
PHI	26	24	33	13	96			97.05	0.49	14.01	8.70	14.12


Oklahoma City at Detroit							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
OKC	25	20	17	30	92		91.37	99.33	0.38	13.27	25.71	50.68
DET	23	28	22	17	90			99.86	0.43	11.23	27.08	21.69


Boston at Chicago							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
BOS	33	25	24	19	101		88.17	116.85	0.52	8.33	15.79	19.75
CHI	27	19	24	25	95			105.68	0.48	13.77	22.22	32.43


Miami at Houston							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
MIA	25	31	26	31	113		91.35	122.87	0.56	10.11	30.95	14.61
HOU	19	33	33	25	110			121.23	0.53	10.42	26.19	32.50


Minnesota at Dallas							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
MIN	25	20	21	24	90		88.36	104.07	0.49	18.54	20.00	40.00
DAL	17	22	19	24	82			90.87	0.39	9.90	14.29	25.00


Denver at Phoenix							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
DEN	27	30	21	22	100		88.40	115.84	0.59	15.16	26.47	14.47
PHO	23	31	29	27	110			121.59	0.49	5.49	30.61	18.09


Atlanta at Portland							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
ATL	28	28	19	20	95		95.10	99.28	0.49	16.09	16.22	22.78
POR	22	25	20	20	87			92.06	0.40	17.48	31.37	25.30

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andre gomes

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Posted

on Tue, Nov 13 2012 7:02 AM

NOTE: Two Plays already added into tonight's NBA Package!

More to come, stay tuned! Yes

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Posted

on Tue, Nov 13 2012 9:06 AM

NBA Free Premium Play for Today:

NBA - 507 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 508 Brooklyn Nets

Projected Line: Brooklyn by 3 points

Brooklyn is coming from two easy blowout wins over Orlando, something that is giving them the false perception that they are a top team, when they are indeed very far from that. Even on those two easy wins, Brooklyn's ball movement was quite poor, as even though they had an easy task on offense, the Nets had just 21 and 20 assists against Orlando and they are just #24 in the league in A/TO ratio with 1.26, something weird when they have two playmakers on the starting lineup in Deron Williams and Joe Johnson.

The truth is that the Nets are still trying to find a identity to the team and a proper game plan. I know that they easily crushed Orlando on their last game, but they shot 5-7 FG at the rim against an undersized team like the Magic, a reason for concern as the Nets with a super size edge should simply pound Orlando down low and the truth is that Brooklyn was an outside shooting team with 7-14 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-24 3pts! They will be facing a Cavaliers, whose only defensive struggle is defending at the rim (worst in the league), but as I've said, the Nets don't take advantage of these edges, with just 21.5 FGA per game at the rim (#3 lowest volume on the league). Also with Deron Williams running the show, it was expected for the Nets to be a top offensive team in running pick and rolls, but the truth is that they are the third worst team in the league on pick and roll ball handler plays, a clear sign for their lack of identity on offense!

They will now face Cleveland, who has lost their last three games, but they are coming from a game where they were competitive at Oklahoma City until the end of the 3rd quarter, where the score was at 73-76. We know that Cleveland has a good pick and roll game due to Kyrie Irving and they are #9 on pick and roll ball handler with 0.82 PPP and with Irving's good vision, the Cavs are also a great spot up team by being #4 on the league with 1.1 PPP! This style of the Cavs offense gives them a good matchup against Brooklyn.

I don't think Deron Williams is a good defender in chasing players on pick and rolls, while Brook Lopez is just too slow, he doesn't have a good foot speed to move properly and not surprisingly, the Nets are just #22 on defending spot up plays. However, on my ranks, I have Brooklyn as #1 on the league in defending pick and roll ball handler plays, something kind of odd! They are just allowing 0.51 PPP on these plays. But when you look at their previous opponents, you realize why the Nets are looking so impressive on defending this kind of plays:

TOR #26 0.62 PPP

MIN #11 0.79 PPP (Brooklyn lost)

MIA #8 0.835 PPP (Brooklyn lost)

ORL #30 0.54 PPP

So, in five games (they faced Orlando twice), three of them were against teams who are ranked #26 and #30 on pick and roll ball handler plays! No wonder Brooklyn is ranked #1 on pick and roll ball handler defense right now! After today's game, I'm sure the Nets won't be #1 on the league on defending this kind of plays, while their offense isn't consistent enough for them to be favored by six points on this game against Cleveland. I believe the Cavaliers will make this game quite competitive and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Cleveland Cavaliers (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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Posted

on Tue, Nov 13 2012 9:06 AM

NOTE: A Third Play has been added into tonight's NBA Package and it's a Triple Dime Play!

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andre gomes

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Posted

on Tue, Nov 13 2012 3:24 PM

NOTE: Tonight's NBA Package is now fully uploaded: 5 Plays (4 Premium Plays + 1 Free Premium Play), including a Triple Dime Play and a Double Dime Play!

Good luck everybody! Yes

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