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NBA Breakdowns - Fri 11/25

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Thread Starter NBA Breakdowns - Fri 11/25
VegasButcher
Joined: 05/20/2010
Posts: 6659
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

NBA ’16-’17 Record

18 - 15 @ 0% for +1.5 Units

===================

Plays:

 

#1:  Top NBA Play for Friday - $5 - Click HERE to Join IN

#2:  Washington Wizards -2

#3:  Los Angeles Clippers -7

 

NBA Breakdowns

Friday, 11/25:

 

WAS @ ORL +2

 

Washington is 4-9 SU/ATS and they’re a listed favorite on the road, where they’re winless on the year and 1-4 ATS.  This tells you how awful the Magic have been this season, as this team is 2-5 ATS at home though they’re 4-4 SU.  Matchup wise though, this is a game that Washington should have an edge in.  They’re simply a more talent squad, especially if Beal plays the way he did the last few games. 

 

Lean:  WAS -2

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CHA @ NYK +1.5

 

Hornets are on a 3-game losing streak, as they’re coming off a very strong effort against the Spurs at home, which ultimately wasn’t enough (got the ‘cover’ though).  They’re facing a Knicks team that is 5-0 in the last 5 games at home.  On the season NY is 6-2 SU/ATS at home, though they’re only 2-6 ATS as a listed ‘underdog’.  Seems like the bookmakers are typically right when they list NY in that spot.  Charlotte is a slightly better team, but NY’s play at home recently can’t be discounted.

 

Lean:  CHA -1.5

============

 

DAL @ CLE -14

 

Who would have thought that Dallas will be a bottom-5 team in the league this season?  This is a team tied for the worst offensive rating in the league.  I gues that’s what Harrison Barnes brings to the table.  Now they’ll have to take on the 3rd most efficient offensive team in the Cavs.  The line is shaded to the home favorite by a point or so, so there’s a little bit of value on the Mavs.  Keep in mind that Channing Frye’s father passes away yesterday, so not sure what kind of an emotional effect it’ll have on the team.  Frye of course won’t play tonight.   

 

Lean:  DAL +14

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LAC @ DET +6.5

 

Drummond vs Jordan for FT-shooting incompetence should be fun to watch here.  All kidding aside, we have a 5-2 ATS road team in LAC going up against a 6-2 ATS home DET team.  The Pistons have been 2-6 ATS as an underdogs so far this season as they typically get blown-out / lose as an underdog.  Without Reggie Jackson, this team doesn’t really have a playmaker that can create for others.  Plus Drummond’s typically advantage in the paint should be mitigated by Jordan.  Hard to find many matchup advantages for the home team in this one.

 

Lean:  LAC -6.5

============

 

CHI @ PHI +9

 

Chicago is playing their 6th straight road game.  After playing the previous 5 on the West Coast, they’re off to Philly tonight.  Sixers are 8-2 ATS at home this year though, as this team is better than the bookmakers have anticipated.  Embiid is out tonight though, so that’s a fairly significant loss.  Still, the Bulls are over-valued a bit here.

 

Lean:  PHI +9

==========

 

ATL @ UTA -3.5

 

The Hawks ended their 3-game losing streak with a win @ IND before Thanksgiving.  Utah ended their 4-game one with a win against Denver.  We have two teams with opposite styles.  Utah is the slowest paced team in the league while the Hawks are 5th fastest.  Typically the Jazz are known for their D (they’re 6th this year) but the best defensive team so far is Atlanta.  I expect a very close game here, as points could very well matter in this one.

 

Lean:  ATL +3.5

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TOR @ MIL +3.5

 

The Raptors have been on the road forever, as 6 of their last 7 have been on the road.  Tonight will also be their 6th straight road game.  They have 2-days off and 6-straight at home after this one, so I’m sure the players are looking forward to getting some rest.  How focused will they be against an inferior Milwaukee team?  Hard to tell, but based on the line the bookmakers don’t think ‘very’.

 

Lean:  MIL +3.5

============

 

MIA @ MEM -6

 

The Grizzlies are on a 6-game winning streak, going 5-1 ATS in the process.  They have a home/away matchup with the Heat tonight and tomorrow.  Miami will be without Wislow and Dragic plus Waiters are listed as questionable.  Depending on how this one goes tonight, tomorrow’s game could provide a solid better angle.

 

PASS

=====

 

BKN @ IND -8

 

The Pacers are 5-11 ATS this year and 1-5 ATS when facing a team with a losing record.  Brooklyn though has been really struggling lately.  They’ll be without Lin and Hollis-Jefferson, so this team will once again be heavily undermanned.  Still, paying a premium to back a mediocre team like the Pacers is never a good idea.

 

PASS

======

 

MIN @ PHX +2

 

The Wolves are now 0-4 ATS as a road favorite of fewer than 3 points, yet the bookmakers continue to list them as such.  They’re also 1-6 SU/ATS on the road overall.  Phoenix is 10-3 ATS as an underdog, though this is a bit of a tough spot for them.  They’re coming off a 6-game roadie, and after seeing their family and celebrating Thanksgiving yesterday, not sure what kind of effort to expect out of them tonight.  Something feels like the road team should be the lean in this one.

 

Lean:  MIN -2

===========

 

OKC @ DEN +2.5

 

OKC is 8-8 SU this season, they’re 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS on the road, and they’re facing a Denver team that is 10-5 ATS on the season.  Thunder is in the middle of a 3-game losing streak and it’s not like their opponents were ‘playoff’ caliber teams:  IND, LAL, and SAC.  So will the losing streak end tonight?  Denver is without Galinari (their best player), Will Barton (his backup), Gary Harris (was a starter before his injury) and even Hernangomez who was the projected starter tonight.  If a motivated OKC team can’t beat this undermanned Denver squad, then all hope is lost.

 

Lean:  OKC -2.5

============

 

NO @ POR -4.5

 

These teams met in NO not too long ago, but that was a b2b/3in4 spot for the Blazers a game when the Pelicans got Jrue Holiday back.  They are now 4-0 with him in the lineup.  I’d like to play the ‘revenge’ angle for the Blazers at home, but this Pellies team is a bit too hot right now.

 

PASS

======

 

HOU @ SAC +3.5

 

The Kings have beaten TOR and OKC at home in two consecutive games, while the Rockets are coming off a home loss.  Typically I’d look to back the ‘better’ team in such a scenario.  But this line seems a tad inflated.  Hard to back the road team with an inflated line when they have no one that can stop Cousins in the paint. 

 

Lean:  SAC +3.5

=============

 

GSW @ LAL +14

 

When you get spanked by 40+ points and play the same team again 2 days later, typically you back the embarrassed team in a ‘revenge’ spot.  But the Lakers are without Russell, Randle, and Young tonight.  Where will the points come from?  This makes this one unplayable from my standpoing.

 

PASS

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Mobeenrx
Joined: 05/17/2015
Posts: 232
College Recruit
Not Ranked

I love your selection for tonight! Let's cash!

Shimii
Joined: 05/08/2016
Posts: 112
College Recruit
Not Ranked

Good luck Butcher!! I had to pop in and check out your Portland / New Orleans breakdown.  I'd love to pass on this game too, but my thread has to live on!!

VegasButcher
Joined: 05/20/2010
Posts: 6659
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Mobeenrx

I love your selection for tonight! Let's cash!

Phew....barely got it!  :)

VegasButcher
Joined: 05/20/2010
Posts: 6659
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Shimii

Good luck Butcher!! I had to pop in and check out your Portland / New Orleans breakdown.  I'd love to pass on this game too, but my thread has to live on!!

hehe...sweet hit buddy!

nice job

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