2014 - 2015 NBA Record
190 – 151 @ 56% for +23.9 Units
-----------------------------------------
#1: Milwaukee Bucks +7
Bucks are 6-13 ATS in the second half of the season, but this team is becoming ‘undervalued’ once again because of it. My numbers indicate about a -3.5 spread for the Pelicans, indicating that they’re a slightly better team than Milwaukee over a course of the season. These teams played on 03/09 with the Bucks losing by 11 at home. It was a much closer battle than the final score indicates as the average margin throughout the game was New Orleans +4. Of course expecting the ‘same’ type of a game is unrealistic as it’s an onus on the Bucks to make the necessary adjustments for the rematch. In that game, Milwaukee allowed the Pelicans an eFG% of 65% and an Offensive Rating of 129. The Bucks rank 2nd in the league in Def-Efficiency (102 Def-Rating) and 8th in eFG%-allowed @ 48%. Clearly, expecting the Pellies to shoot at the same mark tonight is unrealistic, especially considering that they’ve only had 5 fast-break points in that first meeting. Basically they had an eFG% of 65% while running mostly half-court sets! That’s a huge outlier. Of course the Bucks have to do a better job against Anthony Davis, who was absolutely on fire in the first meeting. But the Pelicans will also have to deal with a healthier Carter-Williams, who missed the last game with a bothersome ankle injury. In addition, Bayless should be available as well, as he got injured in the first meeting with the Pelicans and sat out all the games since then. Milwaukee has had 3 days since their last game, so I expect their key ‘injured’ players (MCW and Bayless) to be as healthy and as fresh as possible for this rematch. Pelicans play at a slow pace (#27) and rank 25th in Def-Efficiency. If Milwaukee can shore up their D for the rematch, and regression to the mean says they ‘should’, I would expect the Bucks to score enough points here to keep this one close. Regardless, pure-line value is on the underdog and I’ll grab the points in this one.
Good Luck