2014 - 2015 NBA Record
129 – 87 @ 60% for +33.3 Units
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#1: Philadelphia 76ers +15
There are a couple of factors here that I like for the road team. First, MCW is out. He has the highest usage-rate on the Sixers which might seem like a big loss at first. Well, MCW shoots 38% from the field, 25% from the 3PT line, leads the league in TO’s per game, and is one of the LEAST efficient players in the league. Without MCW in the lineup, I like the rest of the Philly youngsters to step up today and hopefully they play “team ball” in this one. Second factor is that NO are on a b2b and 3in4 spot tonight. They are coming off a huge home win against Dallas where their key guys all played major minutes – Evans 42, Davis 39, Gordon 34. Sixers were off yesterday so they should be fresher. Philly is going with a ‘bigger lineup’ here with Sims starting and McDaniels going to the bench, so I like the fact that they’re actually putting some ‘thought’ into this matchup instead of just blindly playing the ‘regulars’. Noel, Sims, and Covington are all 6’9+ so Philly is trying to match-up with NO’s huge front-line of Davis, Asik, and Cunningham. Finally, you have to remember that New Orleans is a pretty inconsistent team. They haven’t had a winning streak of more than 2 games the whole season prior to the current one, and tend to frequently alternate wins with losses. Well, coming into tonight’s game, NO has a 3-game winning streak, their largest of the year. Hard to see them play with the same level of ‘effort’ as yesterday against the Mavs, and though I don’t think they’ll lose at home, I do think that this one could be closer than the number indicates. And even if the Pellies have a huge early lead, the back-door cover is always in play with such a large spread. I like Philly’s chances of covering tonight.
Good Luck